Conservatives Extend Lead In British Columbia

Vancouver, BC-- A new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll shows the Conservatives solidifying their lead in British Columbia. The Conservatives have the support of 38% of decided and leaning voters in the province. This gives the Conservatives a 12-point advantage over the NDP (26%) and a 13-point advantage over the Liberals (25%). The Green Party currently stands at 8%.

These results show the Conservatives gaining ground since a mid-campaign Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll (June 1st-June 8th). The Conservatives are up 5-points (38% from 33%), stealing small amounts of support from the NDP (26% from 27%), Liberals (25% from 27%) and Greens (8% from 10%).

An exclusive seat model prepared for CTV and the Globe and Mail by Ipsos-Reid suggests the Conservatives are positioned to win the bulk of British Columbia's 36 seats. The Conservatives are projected to have 24 to 28 seats in the province, compared to the Liberals at 4 to 8 seats and the NDP at 2 to 6 seats.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail telephone poll conducted June 21st to June 23rd, 2004 with a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbia residents. The results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire BC adult population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 2001 Census.

Conservatives (38%) Lead NDP (26%) and Liberals (25%)

The Conservatives have expanded their lead in British Columbia as we move into the final few days of the 2004 election campaign. The Conservatives currently have the support of 38% of decided and leaning voters in British Columbia. This is a 5-point improvement on a mid-campaign Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll that pegged the Conservatives at 33% support. The NDP (26%, down 1-point) and Liberals (25%, down 2-points) are in a tight race for second place. The Green Party currently stands at 8% (down 2-points). These results exclude the 6% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference for any party.

The regional results are as follows.

• There is a tight three-way race in the in the Northwest sector of the Lower Mainland (Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster and North Shore). The Liberals (31%), Conservatives (29%) and NDP (29%) all have the support of approximately three-in-ten decided voters.
• The rest of the Lower Mainland continues to be Conservative country. The Conservatives (42%) have a sizeable lead over both the Liberals (26%) and NDP (21%).
• Green Party support (11%, down 7-points) has slipped on Vancouver Island, making it a tight three-way race. The contest between the three major parties is a statistical dead-heat (Conservatives 32%, NDP 30%, Liberals 26%).
• In the Interior/North of British Columbia, the Conservatives (46%) have a substantial lead over the NDP (28%) and Liberals (20%).

There are also differences by voter age and sex.

• The Conservatives do better with men (41% vs. 35% women) and older voters (44% 55+years vs. 39% 35-54 years, 31% 18-34 years).
• The NDP does better with women (31% vs. 21% men) and younger voters (32% 18-34 years vs. 25% 35-54 years, 23% 55+ years).
• The Green Party does better with younger voters (12% 18-34 years vs. 10% 35-54 years, 4% 55+ years).

For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:

Ipsos-Reid Seat Projection Model

For more information on this press release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice-President, Ipsos-Reid
Vancouver, BC
604.257.3200 About Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos-Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos-Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.ca

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