Conservatives Lead in BC's Lower Mainland

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos Reid online poll in BC's Lower Mainland (see methodology at end of factum for description of Lower Mainland region) shows the Conservatives ahead, but the NDP as the only party showing gains compared to the 2008 election result. Currently, the Conservatives have the support of 42% of decided and leaning voters in the Lower Mainland. The NDP are in second place at 29% support, followed by the Liberal Party at 23%. The Green Party is at 6%, while less than 1% support any other party. These results exclude the 7% of Lower Mainland residents who express no preference for any party.

Compared to the actual results of the October 2008 election, the NDP is the only party making gains, moving up 5 percentage points (from 24% to 29%). The NDP's gains have mostly come at the expense of the Green Party which is down 3 percentage points (from 9% to 6%). Both the Conservatives (from 43% to 42%) and the Liberals (from 24% to 23%) are down 1 point from the 2008 election.

The Conservatives have a sizable lead among men (26 points ahead of the NDP), but only a small lead among women (3 points ahead of the NDP). The Conservatives also lead across all age groups, although it's close to a three-way statistical tie among younger voters.

(Click to enlarge image)

Certainty of Choice

Most voters in the Lower Mainland have made up their mind about their choice. The strongest vote is for the Conservatives, with seven-in-ten (71%) party supporters saying they are "absolutely certain" they will vote Conservative on Election Day. Six-in-ten supporters of both the NDP (60%) and Liberals (60%) also say they are "absolutely certain" about their party choice.

(Click to enlarge image)

Best Prime Minister

Lower Mainland residents are most likely to choose Stephen Harper as the party leader who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. Four-in-ten (39%) choose Harper, compared to one-quarter (26%) for Jack Layton and two-in-ten (18%) for Michael Ignatieff. Seventeen percent are unsure of which leader would make the best Prime Minister.

Stephen Harper leads among both men and women, as well as among all age groups.

(Click to enlarge image)

Best Understanding of Lower Mainland Issues

Lower Mainland residents narrowly select Jack Layton and the NDP as having the best understanding of the issues that matter to Lower Mainland residents. Layton and the NDP are chosen by 30% of residents, just 1 point ahead of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (29%). Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals are a distant third at 12%. Three-in-ten (29%) residents say they don't know which leader/party has the best understanding of Lower Mainland issues.

On this measure, Harper and the Conservatives lead among men (12 points ahead of Layton/NDP), while Layton and the NDP lead among women (12 points ahead of Harper/Conservatives). Layton and the NDP also have a large advantage among younger voters (14 points ahead of Harper/Conservatives).>

(Click to enlarge image)

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted on behalf of Global BC. The poll was fielded April 21 to April 25, 2011 with a representative sample of 900 adult Lower Mainland residents. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of 1773.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Lower Mainland population according to 2006 Census data. The polling was conducted using Ipsos Reid's "Voice of the West Interactive Forum" - an online panel of more than 6,500 British Columbians who have been recruited to match the overall characteristics of the adult residents of the province. For this survey, the Lower Mainland was defined as including the 20 federal ridings with significant imprints in the Lower Mainland. This region is bounded on the Northwest by West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country, on the Southwest by Delta - Richmond East, on the Northeast by Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge, and on the Southeast by Abbotsford. It does not include the riding of Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice-President Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2010, Ipsos generated global revenues of e1.140 billion ($1.6 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP