Election Prelude Ends With Tight Race

Conservatives (32%, +5 Points) Make Up Ground On Grits (33%, -3 Points) -- NDP (16%, -1 Point), Green Party (5%, Unchanged) -- In Quebec (Bloc 54% Vs. Liberals 24%); But Many Likely Voters (37%) Will Not Decide Where To Land Final Decision Until Later Parts Of Campaign

Toronto, ON - According to the latest Ipsos Reid survey conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service/Global News, the federal election race takes a break at Christmas with the stage set much the same as when it began -- a neck and neck tie between the Liberals (33%, -3 points) and the Conservatives (32%, +5 points).

After a week following the debates, the survey shows that if a federal election were held tomorrow, 33% of voters would cast their ballot in support of the Liberals (-3 points), 32% would support the Conservatives (+5 points), 16% would support the NDP (-1 point) and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (54%, -2 points) have a 30-point lead over the Liberals (24%, -1 point).

Further, as it would appear that the federal vote race in Ontario has tightened (40% Liberals vs. 38% Conservatives), if a vote were held tomorrow, a Conservative led minority government would be the probable outcome.

As for party and party leader momentum:

  • The Liberals continue to have negative momentum overall (-21 points),
  • The Conservatives maintain their positive momentum (+4 points),
  • The NDP have strong positive momentum (+16 points), and
  • The Bloc Quebecois are positive in Quebec (+24 points).

But the first leg of the campaign ends with many (37%) likely voters in Canada indicating that they have not yet decided who they will vote for -- with 15% saying they will make their decision "right after the holidays" and 23% saying they "will decide in late January".

What's more is that one in seven likely voters (16%) admit to having paid "not very much attention"(15%) or "no attention" (1%) to the federal election campaigns at this point in time, a further 55% say they have only given the election "some attention".

Federal Vote and the "momentum" questions were derived from an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from December 20th to December 22nd 2005. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

For the questions involving voter resolve and interest in the election campaign, these results are derived from an Ipsos Reid survey conducted among 7,939 on-line Canadian voters via the internet from December 17th to December 18th, 2005. Results for this survey can be considered accurate to within ±1.1% (19 times out of 20). The data were statistically weighted to ensure that the sample's age, sex, regional and party support composition reflects that of the actual Canadian voter population. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of over 12,000 voters drawn from Ipsos Reid's internet panel.

Please open attached files to view full press release and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr.Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416.324.2900
[email protected]

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416.324.2900
[email protected]

Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada -- including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country -- all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

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