Into The Election Window: Part 2

Toronto, ON: According to a new Ipsos-Reid/The Globe and Mail/CTV survey released today, while most Canadians (72%) believe that the Liberals will win the up-coming election and form Canada's next government, a majority (60%) agree "Canada will get better government if we have a minority parliament after the next election" (35% disagree).

Further, dogging the federal Liberals is the perception among a majority of Canadians (61%) that the Liberal Party is corrupt - including over one-third (35%) of decided Liberal voters who share this view.

The poll points to a potential Achilles heel for the Liberal Party: their own committed voters. The poll finds that decided Liberal voters are among the least likely party supporters to be "absolutely certain" that they will vote for the Liberals in the upcoming election. Further, four in ten (39%) of the Liberal's current committed vote would choose the Conservative Party as their second choice, followed then by the NDP (34%), if they could not vote for the Liberals. If current committed Liberal voters are less than enthusiastic about turning out in total numbers to the polling booth on Election Day, it may well deliver a Liberal led minority government and not the majority that the government wants.

Canadians are also split on how extreme Stephen Harper appears to be in leading the Conservative Party. And while the Liberals have sought to demonize Mr. Harper it is notable that of the decided Liberal voters themselves one-third (35%) don't find Mr. Harper extreme.

These findings, as well as many others, noted below, follow on last night's poll release that shows a volatile landscape with the potential for a minority government to occur for the ruling Liberal Party. In particular, the views held by the decided Liberal voters discovered in this poll do not bode well for a party which is expected to call an election this weekend.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between May 11th and 17th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

While Almost Three-Quarters Of Canadians Believe Liberals Will Win The Next Election...

Regardless of their political affiliations, most Canadians (72%) believe that the Liberals will win the up-coming election and form Canada's next government. Only one in five (18%) Canadians believe that the Conservatives will win the next election, and very few (4%) believe the NDP will win the upcoming election. The remaining 5% of Canadians "don't know".

• Across all regions of Canada, a strong majority believe that the Liberals will win the upcoming election -- residents of British Columbia (75%) and Quebec (75%) are the most inclined to feel this way, followed by Atlantic Canada (73%), Ontario (72%), Alberta (67%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%).
• Over half of decided Conservative supporters (56%) believe the Liberals will win the upcoming election, compared to 67% of NDP decided voters, and 90% of Liberal decided voters.

Most Canadians (60%) Agree Canada Will Get Better Government With Minority Parliament -- Many Decided Liberal Voters (47%) Agree...

A majority of Canadians (60%) agree "Canada will get better government if we have a minority parliament after the next election" (31% "strongly", 29% "somewhat"). In comparison, one-third of Canadians (35%) disagree with this statement (16% "somewhat", 19% "strongly"). The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know".

• British Columbians (64%) are those most likely to agree with this statement, followed by six in ten in Atlantic Canadians (62%), Albertans (61%), residents of Ontario (60%), residents of Quebec (60%), and residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%).
• Many decided Liberal supporters (47%) agree "Canada will get a better government if we have a minority parliament after the next election". This compares to six in ten Conservative supporters (62%), and eight in ten (79%) New Democratic Party supporters.

As Six In Ten Canadians Think It's Time Another Federal Political Party Be Given A Chance To Govern...

Six in ten Canadians (60%, up 1 point from 59% since the last sounding) feel the statement "it's time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country" is closest to their own opinion, while 36% (up 1 point from 35%) feel the statement "the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin" is closest to their own opinion. The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know".

• Canadians in Quebec (67%) and Alberta (67%) are the most inclined to feel that it's time for a change in government, followed by residents in British Columbia (62%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%), Atlantic Canada (56%), and Ontario (54%). As well, 20% of decided Liberal voters believe it's time for a change.
• Agreement that the Federal Liberals deserve to be re-elected is highest in Atlantic Canada (43%), and Ontario (43%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (32%), British Columbia (32%), Alberta (30%), and Quebec (29%).

Majority Of Canadians (61%) Agree The Liberal Party Is Corrupt... One-Third (35%) Of Decided Liberal Voters Agree...

A majority of Canadians (61%) agree with the statement "the Liberal Party is corrupt" (29% "somewhat", 32% "strongly"). This is matched up against four in ten Canadians (37%) who disagree with this statement (22% "somewhat", 14% "strongly disagree"). A further 3% of Canadians "don't know".

• Agreement with the statement "the Liberal Party is corrupt" is highest in Quebec (70%), followed by Alberta (66%), British Columbia (64%), Ontario (55%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%), and Atlantic Canada (53%).
• One-third (35%) of decided Liberal supporters agree that the Liberal party is corrupt.
• Three quarters of decided Conservative (76%) and NDP (75%) supporters agree that the Liberal Party is corrupt, and eight in ten decided Bloc Quebecois supporters (84%) feel this way as well.

Just Over Half Of Canadians (56%)Are "Absolutely Certain" They Are Likely To Vote In The Next Election... But, Liberal Decided Voters (55%) Among Least Likely To Be Absolutely Certain, Compared With Bloc (54%), NDP (59%), And Conservatives (67%)...

When thinking of the up-coming election, 56% of Canadians state that they are "absolutely certain" they will vote. Another 21% indicate that they are "very likely" to vote, followed by 10% who are "somewhat likely", 5% who are "not very likely", and 7% who are "not likely at all". The remaining 1% "don't know".

• Two thirds of the residents of British Columbia (65%) indicate they are "absolutely certain" they will vote, compared to 57% in Ontario, 55% in Alberta, 54% in Quebec, 51% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and 48% in Atlantic Canada.
• Two thirds of decided Conservative supporters (67%) indicate they are "absolutely certain" they will vote, the highest among all decided party supporters. Following the Conservatives are decided NDP supporters with 59%, Liberals decided supporters with 55%, Bloc Quebecois supporters with 54%, and Green Party decided supporters with 43%.

Three In Ten Decided Voters Could Change Their Mind And Vote For Another Party...

Three in ten decided voters (29%) are not solidly committed to their present choice of party as they indicate that they could "change their mind and vote for another party on Election Day". Seven in ten decided voters (69%) are not likely to "change their mind and vote for another party on Election Day". The remaining 2% of Canadians "don't know".

• Those decided voters most likely to change their vote are residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%), followed by residents of Atlantic Canada (30%), Ontario (30%), Quebec (29%), British Columbia (28%), and Alberta (20%).
• One-third (36%) of decided NDP supporters are likely to change their mind and vote for another party -- 29% among decided Liberal supports, and 23% among decided Conservative supporters.

• Among decided Liberal supports, four in ten (39%) would vote Conservative if they could not vote Liberal, while 30% would vote NDP, 6% for the Green Party, 4% for the Bloc Quebecois, 3% for some other party, and 18% would not vote or would be undecided.
• Many Conservative voters (35%) would swing to the Liberal Party, with another 22% switching to the NDP. One in ten decided Conservative supporters would change their vote to the Green Party (12%) or to some other party (8%), 3% would vote for the Bloc Quebecois, and 21% would not vote or would be undecided.
• One-third (34%) of New Democratic Supporters would switch their allegiance to the Liberals if they could not vote for their first choice, 20% would vote for the Conservatives, 22% for the Green Party, 6% for some other party, and 4% for the Bloc Quebecois. The remaining 14% of New Democratic Party supporters would not vote or would be undecided.
• Among Bloc Quebecois supporters, one-quarter (26%)would vote for the Conservative Party if they could not vote for their first choice, one in five would vote NDP (21%) and Liberal (20%), one in ten (12%) would vote for the Green Party, and 2% for some other party. One in five (18%) Bloc Quebecois voters would not vote or would be undecided if they could not vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

New Conservative Party Seen By Most (61%) As Old Reform / Alliance Party...

Despite a well-publicized merger and new leadership designed to present a more progressive front to the right of centre party, the majority (61%) of Canadians agree "the new Conservative Party is really just the old Alliance or Reform Party" (34% "somewhat agree", 27% "strongly agree"), while one-third (32%) disagree with this statement (21% "somewhat disagree", 11% "strongly disagree"). One in ten Canadians (8%) "don't know".

• Agreement with the statement that "the new Conservative Party is really just the old Alliance or Reform Party" is highest in Alberta (65%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (65%), followed by British Columbia (62%), Ontario (60%), Quebec (59%), and Atlantic Canada (57%).
• Three-quarters of decided NDP voters (73%), followed by seven in ten decided Liberal (69%) supporters agree that the new Conservative Party is just the old Alliance or Reform Party by a new name. Six in ten decided Bloc supporters (63%) also believe this to be the case, followed by four in ten (44%) Conservative supporters.

Canadians Split Whether Harper Too Extreme To Be Canada's Prime Minister ... One-Third (35%) Of Decided Liberal Voters Don't Find Harper Extreme...

Almost half (46%) of Canadians disagree with the statement that "Stephen Harper is too extreme to be Canada's Prime Minister" (27%"somewhat", 20% "strongly"). An equal number (45%) agree with the statement " (23% "somewhat", 21% "strongly"). The remaining 9% of Canadians don't know.

• Those Canadians most likely to disagree that Stephen Harper is too extreme to be Canada's Prime Minister are most likely to reside in Alberta (55%), followed by British Columbia (52%), Ontario (50%), Manitoba/Saskatchewan (49%), Atlantic Canada (49%), and Quebec (34%).
• Among decided voters, 80% of Conservative voters disagree Stephen Harper is too extreme, compared to 36% of NDP supporters (36%), 35% of Liberal supporters, and 32% of Bloc supporters.
• Residents of Quebec (50%) are the most likely to agree with this statement, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%), Atlantic Canada (45%), Ontario (44%), British Columbia (41%) and Alberta (41%).
• Among decided Liberal voters, 56% agree that Stephen Harper is too extreme to be Prime Minister, while 60% of NDP supporters agree, and 17% of Conservative supporters agree.

And Over Half Of Canadians Disagree That Voting NDP A Wasted Vote...

Despite the fact the NDP trail the Liberals distantly in the polls, over half (54%) of Canadians disagree with the statement that "voting NDP is just a wasted vote" (25% "somewhat", 29% "strongly"). In comparison, four in ten Canadians (43%) agree with this statement (17% "somewhat", 26% "strongly"). The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know".

• Half of Albertans (51%) and residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (48%) and Quebec (47%) agree that voting for the NDP is a wasted vote, and 43% in British Columbia agree, 40% in Ontario, and 31% in Atlantic Canada.
• Almost all NDP supporters (88%) disagree that voting for the NDP is just a wasted vote. This is followed by 53% of Bloc supporters, 52% of decided Green Party supporters, 52% of Liberals supporters, and 39% Conservative supporters.

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, Ph.D
President & C.O.O
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900