On Eve of Royal Visit of Prince of Wales and Duchess Camilla, Majority (57%) Believe Charles Should Take The Throne When Time Comes (up from 51% in 2005)

Toronto, ON - As Canadians prepare for the arrival of His Royal Highness, Charles, The Prince of Wales and his wife, Camilla, The Duchess of Cornwall, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global Television has revealed that Canadians have warmed to the idea of Charles taking his place as King once the current sovereign, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, is no longer able to reign.

In 1993, 61% believed the Prince of Wales should become king when the time comes, but a rocky relationship with the late Diana, Princess of Wales, her death and Charles' initially-unpopular marriage to Camilla Parker Bowles all led to a tarnishing of his kingly lustre where only a slim majority (51%) in 2005 felt he should reign, with the remaining Canadians believing he should skip the role and pass the crown on to his eldest son, Prince William.

It appears now that the Prince has repaired most of the damage done to his reputation, and there is now restored confidence in him assuming his rightful place when Queen Elizabeth no longer rules: six in ten (57%) believe he should not `skip his place in line for the throne as king and instead pass the reign of king on to his son Prince William'.

But while Canadians are more supportive of the idea of "King Charles" than in 2005, they continue to be split on the idea of continuing Canada's formal ties to the monarchy: one half (53%) `agrees' (30% strongly/23% somewhat) that `when Queen Elizabeth's reign ends, Canada should end its formal ties to the British monarchy'. This figure was 55% in 2005 and 51% in 1993. By contrast, the other half (47%) `disagrees' (22% strongly/26% somewhat) that official ties to the monarchy should be severed.

This is pretty much in keeping with the underlying views of one half (49%, up 1 point) of Canadians who `agree' (23% strongly/26% somewhat) that the `constitutional monarchy' is outdated' and that they would `prefer a republic system of government with an elected head of state, like they do in the United States', while the other half (51%) `disagrees' with this notion. It also mirrors the one half who (50%) `agrees' (15% strongly/35% somewhat) that `the issue of the monarchy and our form of government isn't important, so why go through the fuss of changing something that seems to work okay', while the other half (50%, up 8 points) `disagrees' that we shouldn't bother with change.

One issue that has ruffled a lot of feathers and stirred debate in Canada recently was Governor General Michaelle Jean's public musings that she is, de facto, Canada's head of state. From a constitutional perspective it is Queen Elizabeth II. Canadians have weighed in on the matter, and they're split down the middle: One half (53%) `agrees' (22% strongly/31% somewhat) that `Canada's head of state should be the Governor General, not the Queen', while the other half (47%) `disagrees' (21% strongly/26% somewhat) with this notion.

But what is dividing Canadians on the issue of the monarchy, and perhaps even driving some to look for change? It appears that one of the bones of contention could be our absentee monarch, with three quarters (73%) `agreeing' (43% strongly/30% somewhat) that `Canada's head of state should live in Canada'. Just one quarter (27%) `disagrees' (7% strongly/19% somewhat) with this concept.

But regardless of the split or stay debate, six in ten (60%) `agree' (31% strongly/29% somewhat) that `the Queen and the Royal Family should not have any formal role in Canadian society' and that `the royals are simply celebrities and nothing more', up from 58% in October of 2002. Four in ten (40%) `disagree' (14% strongly/25% somewhat) with this position.

Notwithstanding the fact that many wish to formally cut off ties with the monarchy once the Queen is no longer able to reign, eight in ten (81%) `agree' (32% strongly/49% somewhat) that `Queen Elizabeth has done a good job in her role as monarch', holding steady since 2002 when 84% felt she was doing a good job. Conversely, just two in ten (19%) `disagree' (6% strongly/12% somewhat) that she has done a good job as monarch.

Despite Canada's ever-changing ancestral composition that is becoming less and less British, a majority (55%) `agrees' (19% strongly/35% somewhat) that the `constitutional monarchy helps to define Canada and should continue to be our form of government. However, a desire for change is increasing, with 45% (up 10 points) `disagreeing' that the constitutional monarchy is part of our identity and should be maintained as our form of government.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between October 27 and 29, 2009, on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television. For this survey, a national sample of 1,005 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

To Abdicate or Not To Abdicate, That is the Question...

Prince Charles, the heir to the British Throne, has come under pressure to consider abdicating and passing the throne on to his son, Prince William, when Queen Elizabeth is no longer able to reign. However, the worst appears to be behind the Prince of Wales, with six in ten (57%) now believing he should not abdicate, and four in ten (43%) believing he should. Some are more likely than others to think he should skip his place in line:

• Atlantic Canadians (52%) are most likely to believe that Charles should skip his place in line, while those in Quebec (46%), Alberta (43%), British Columbia (43%), Ontario (41%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (36%) are less likely to believe so.
• Women (46%) are more likely than men (41%) to believe the Prince of Wales should not be King.
• Interestingly, those aged 35 to 54 (49%) and older (45%) are much more likely than those aged 18 to 34 (33%) to believe that Prince Charles should pass the reign of king to his son, William.

Splitting Ties with the Monarchy...

One half (53%) of Canadians believes formal ties with the British Monarchy should be severed when Queen Elizabeth II is no longer able to reign. The other half (47%) disagrees with this position. There is not much agreement along regional lines:

• Those in Quebec (66%) and Atlantic Canada (55%) believe ties should be severed, while Ontario sits on the fence (50%). A minority of those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (49%), British Columbia (48%) and Alberta (39%) believe ties with the monarchy should be severed.
• Men (56%) are more likely than women (49%) to believe that ties should end.
• Older Canadians (55%) are slightly more likely than middle-aged (52%) or younger Canadians (50%) to believe that ties to the monarchy should end when Elizabeth's reign is over.

Long Live the Queen...

Eight in ten (81%) Canadians believe that Queen Elizabeth has done a good job in her role as monarch, while just two in ten (19%) disagree. Some, are more likely to think so than others:

• Residents of Alberta (91%) are most likely to give a glowing assessment of Her Majesty, followed by those living in British Columbia (89%), Ontario (87%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (84%), and Atlantic Canada (73%). Even two thirds (66%) of Quebecers think she's done a good job.
• Interestingly, there are no significant differences based on age or gender, suggesting that her popularity is widespread.

Who are the Republicans...

The term republican is likely associated with the Republican Party of the United States. But in its traditional sense, republicans are, essentially, not monarchists. So who are the republicans in Canadian society?

• Quebecers (60%) are the most likely to prefer a republican system of government for Canada, while British Columbians (50%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (49%), Ontario (46%), Atlantic Canada (43%) and Albertans (41%) are less likely to prefer a republic system of government.
• Men (54%) are more likely than women (45%) to prefer a republican system of government. There are no differences based on age.
• Those with no high school diploma (55%) are most likely to prefer a republican form of government, while those with a university education are least likely (40%).

The Monarchy as Part of Who We Are...

Although Canada is changing and the source of immigration has been moving steadily away from Europe to Asia for quite some time, a majority (55%) says that the constitutional monarchy helps to define Canada, while 45% disagree.

• British Columbians (64%) are most likely to agree with this position, followed by Ontarians (59%), Albertans (58%), Atlantic Canadians (56%), and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%). A minority (42%) of Quebecers think so.

Canada's Head of State...

Canadians are split on whether Canada's head of state is the Queen or the Governor General. While half (53%) agrees that the Governor General should be head of state, not the Queen, the other half disagrees (47%).

• Quebecers (64%) are the most likely to believe that the Governor General should be the head of state, while a majority of Atlantic Canadians (56%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (56%) feel this way as well. A minority of Ontarians (49%), British Columbians (48%) and Albertans (44%) believe the Governor General should be head of state.
• Women (56%) are more likely than men (50%) to believe that the Governor General should be head of state.
• Middle-aged Canadians (56%) and younger Canadians (54%) are more likely to believe that Canada's head of state should be the Governor General, while a minority (48%) of those aged 55+ agree.

Most (73%) believe that Canada's head of state should live in Canada, but in fact the Queen lives in England. Just 27% don't seem to be hung up on this point.

• Most (84%) Quebecers feel that the head of state should live in Canada, while a majority of people from every province agree, including Atlantic Canada (77%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (73%), British Columbia (70%), Ontario (69%), and Alberta (66%).
• There are no significant differences based on age or gender, suggesting that support for the head of state living in Canada is widespread.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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