Federal Party Standings and the Public Agenda

Federal Politics and Top Issues of Importance to Canadians

The latest Angus Reid/CTV/The Globe and Mail poll, conducted among 1,501 Canadians between June 4th and 14th, looked at the federal party standings and the public agenda -- issues most important to Canadians that should receive the attention of its leaders. The highlights include:

The Federal Political Scene (Table 1)

As Parliament begins its summer hiatus, this latest Angus Reid Poll shows the Chrйtien Liberals continuing to enjoy a second honeymoon.

One year after being re-elected with its second consecutive majority, the Liberal Party holds 50 percent of the decided vote, consistent with where they have been in recent soundings, but still significantly higher than the 38 percent of the popular vote garnered on election day a year ago.

The Reform Party remains in second with 15 percent nationally, down from 19 percent at the ballot box last year. The Conservatives are at 12 percent, slipping 3 points since the beginning of the year and 7 points since their 19 percent share in the election. The NDP continues to hold steady at 11 percent, consistent with Angus Reid soundings taken since last June, and the Bloc Quйbйcois is at 10 percent nationally (42% in Quйbec). (A total of 13 percent of Canadians polled were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election.)

The regional results show:

• In B.C., the Liberals are ahead of the Reform Party (40% to 31%), as they have been since the January Angus Reid sounding. This represents a virtual reversal of fortunes since last June's election, when Reform garnered 41 percent of the popular vote in B.C. versus 28 percent for the Liberals.
• In Alberta, the Liberals have also edged ahead of Reform since election day (40% to 34% today compared with 24% to 54% last June).
• The Liberals have lost some ground in Manitoba/Saskatchewan recently, but still maintain a solid lead with 38 percent there. Reform is at 24 percent, the PCs at 19 percent and the NDP at 18 percent across these two prairie provinces.
• The Liberals enjoy an even wider lead in seat-rich Ontario, holding 57% of the decided vote, far ahead of the Conservatives (16%), Reform (14%) and NDP (13%).
• In Quйbec, the Liberals are ahead of the BQ by 10 points (50% to 40%). The Conservatives have sagged badly since Jean Charest's departure to lead the Quйbec Liberal Party, falling to 5 percent from 14 percent in January and 22 percent on election day.
• Finally, in Atlantic Canada, Liberal support remains high at 55 percent, up significantly from voting day (33%). The NDP sits in second with 19 percent, down slightly since their electoral breakthrough in the region last June (23%). The Conservatives have slipped from 33 percent on election day to 14 percent and third spot in the region today. Reform is at 11 percent in Atlantic Canada.

The Public Agenda

Public concern about Canada's health care system remains well up since the beginning of the year and this issue continues to re-shape the top tier of the public agenda: health care currently sits -- along with national unity and jobs -- at the top of Canadians' priority list. (Table 2)

Canadians participating in the early-June National Angus Reid Poll were posed an "open-ended" question at the beginning of the interview asking them to name the most important issues facing Canada's leaders today. This probing yielded the following responses, presented here in descending order of their presence on the public's agenda:

• The unemployment/jobs situation sits at the top of Canadians' policy priority list with "top-of-mind" mentions totalling 32 percent. Last July, 49 percent of Canadians polled mentioned the jobless situation as a policy priority, and that figure has been declining fairly steadily since then.
• The state of Canada's health care system is viewed as a pressing concern by 29 percent of Canadians. This is nearly double the number recorded in January (17%), with the surge in concern first noted in March. "Top-of-mind" concern about health care is highest among residents of Manitoba/Saskatchewan (43%), women (36%) and Quйbecers (35%), but the health care issue is squarely on the agenda among all major segments of the Canadian population.
• National unity/Quйbec's future was mentioned by 28 percent of respondents.
• The overall state of the economy was cited by 20 percent of Canadians polled.
• Issues concerning education were mentioned by 15 percent of respondents, peaking at 21 percent among young people.
• Government deficits/debt was cited as a public policy priority by 14 percent of surveyed Canadians, virtually unchanged from January. Western Canadians, men and the most affluent continue to express the greatest level of concern about government deficits/debt.
• Issues relating to poverty were singled out by 7 percent of surveyed Canadians, consistent with recent soundings.
• Six percent of respondents pointed to taxes/taxation as a critical issue facing Canada and its leaders today.
• Crime/justice issues also received mentions from 6 percent of surveyed Canadians.
• The environment was mentioned by 6 percent of those polled as a pressing national concern.
• Other social services were cited by 5 percent.

A number of other issues were mentioned by smaller numbers of survey respondents, including: government/politics (4%); issues relating to the military/defence (4%); immigration/refugees (3%); natural resources/fisheries (3%); trade (2%); the value of the Canadian dollar (2%); among others cited by still fewer respondents.

This Angus Reid/CTV/The Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone between June 4th and 14th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,501 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,501, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

Christian Bourque
Directeur senior de la Recherche
Groupe Angus Reid
(514) 877-5550