Federal Political Issues in Alberta Late October 2000

Firearms Registration Polarizes Albertans

Albertans Endorse the Liberal Mini-budget "Trust Factor" a Strength for CA, a Weakness for Liberals - "Electability" is Problem for Clark & the Tories

Calgary, AB - The results of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV Alberta poll places Healthcare (54%), government spending and debt (27%), tax reform (26%) and education (25%) atop the public agenda in the province (on a top-of-mind basis). Further, the survey finds that the Canadian Alliance enjoys considerable confidence with the public on many of the top campaign issues. When asked to choose the federal party who would perform best, if elected, on a prompted list of issues, CA receives the strongest endorsement from Albertans on issues related to "representativeness", trust, and dealing with government finances. However, on healthcare, CA holds only a modest plurality over the Liberals and NDP, and the Liberals edge out the Alliance on the issue of National Unity.

The late-October poll also finds that the Liberal gun registration law continues to polarize Albertans. Currently 49% of Albertans support the law compared to 50% who do not, although urban ridings offer considerably higher levels of support than rural ones.

A majority of Albertans offer support, albeit modest, support for the Liberal "mini-budget" proposals. Fully 72% of those interviewed endorse the Liberal plans, although only 11% report "strong support" to Liberal pronouncements on this front.

In an attitudinal assessment of Alberta voters, the early-campaign survey finds that the Canadian Alliance benefits from the "Trust Factor" (68% of Albertans say they "trust CA to do what they say"), while this is a burden for the Liberals (only 31% of those interviewed say they "trust the Liberals to do what they say"). Meanwhile, "electability" is a hindrance for Joe Clark and the Tories. Fully six-in-ten (60%) Albertans say that "voting for the federal PCs is a wasted vote", while 54% disagree with the statement "the federal PCs will do better in this election than the last one".

Finally, a majority of Albertans (57%) believe that a majority Alliance government would be a "good thing" for the country overall, and while most would be "happy" and "optimistic" about hearing that Stockwell Day was the new Prime Minister on November 27th, a large majority would be "surprised" if it happens. Meanwhile, only one-quarter (25%) of Alberta voters say that a third consecutive Liberal government would be a "good thing" for the country, compared to 37% who take the opposite perspective. If the news heralds another Liberal majority government on November 27th, most Albertans will be a bit "concerned", and although they wouldn't be "surprised", they also wouldn't be "optimistic" or "happy".

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV Alberta poll conducted between October 25th and October 29th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Alberta population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Albertan population according to the 1996 Census data.

Detailed analysis of the survey results can be found on the pages that follow.

Federal Issue Agenda in Alberta

When asked to name the top three issues for the national campaign, Albertans focus their attention on healthcare - 27% name it as the number one issue of importance for the country, while 54% place it within the top three issues top-of-mind. Economic issues fall out next on the federal issue agenda. Fully 16% of those interviewed in late October say that government debt and spending is the number one issue in the campaign (27% put this issue in the top three), while another 15% cite taxes as their premier issue (26% maintain taxes is one of the three most important issues). Rounding out the top-tier of campaign issues is education - on a top-of-mind basis, 9% of Alberta voters say that education is the number one issue, while one-quarter (25%) believe it is one of the top three issues facing Canada today. (SEE TABLE #1)

Federal Party Positioning on Key Campaign Issues

Survey respondents were presented with a prompted list of issues related to the federal campaign, and asked their views about which party, if elected, would do the best job on each. On this front, we find that the Canadian Alliance holds a strong advantage with respect to party positioning on most issues, particularly where government finances and political "representativeness" and trust are concerned. The two issues where CA is not a clear winner "on the issues" are National Unity and Healthcare. When it comes to the Unity portfolio, the Liberal Party holds a modest edge (4 percentage points over CA) over other federal parties in the province. On healthcare, the Alliance is selected as the "best party" to deal with the issue by a plurality of Alberta voters (37%), with the Liberals and NDP in a virtual tie for second place with 23% and 21% respectively. (SEE TABLE #2)

The overall findings for this line of questioning include:

• Best Job Managing the National Economy: 49% select the Alliance, 28% the Liberals and 9% the PCs. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 21 percentage points.
• Best to Deal with National Unity in Canada: 38% select the Liberals, 34% the Alliance and 10% the PCs. The Liberal lead over the 2nd place party is 4 percentage points.
• Delivering on Campaign Promises: 47% select the Alliance, 14% the Liberals and 7% the PCs. Fully 18% say "none" of the federal parties will do a good job on this. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 33 percentage points.
• Have Beliefs About the Economy Which are Closest to Your Own: 53% select the Alliance, 20% the Liberals and 10% the PCs. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 33 percentage points.
• Have Beliefs About Social Issues Which are Closest to Your Own: 47% select the Alliance, 21% the Liberals and 14% the NDP. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 26 percentage points.
• Best Job Representing Your Constituency: 57% select the Alliance, 20% the Liberals and 7% the PCs. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 37 percentage points.
• Best at Reducing the Federal Debt: 55% select the Alliance, 22% the Liberals and 10% the PCs. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 33 percentage points.
• Best Job Reducing Taxes: 58% select the Alliance, 18% the Liberals and 7% the PCs. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 40 percentage points.
• Best at Protecting and Promoting Canada's Healthcare System: 37% select the Alliance, 23% the Liberals and 21% the NDP. The CA lead over the 2nd place party is 14 percentage points.

Albertans' Views on the Liberal Firearms Registration Law

Ever since Liberal Firearms legislation was introduced in the Commons by then Justice Minister Allan Rock, the issue has been controversial in Alberta. The October Ipsos-Reid/CTV Alberta poll set out to assess what role the Liberal's firearms registration law might play in this current election, particularly with the sitting Justice Minister seeking re-election in Edmonton-West.

The Liberal firearm registration law polarizes Albertans on a province-wide basis, although it continues to enjoy majority support in urban ridings. Currently, one-half (49%) of Alberta voters endorse the registration of firearms, while virtually the same proportion (50%) are opposed. Opposition to the Liberal firearm law is slightly more intense than support - fully 38% of Albertans strongly oppose the law, while 33% strongly support it. (SEE TABLE #3A)

• Support for firearm registration is highest in urban areas of the province. Support for registration sits at 57% in Calgary and 53% in Edmonton.
• Canadian Alliance voters offer the highest levels of opposition to the registration law (65%), however those planning on supporting other federal parties tend to offer equally high levels of support for registration - particularly Liberal voters (75% support the law) and NDP voters (64% support the law).

Among those who do not support the Liberal gun registration law, issues of cost and effectiveness seem to be the biggest drivers of opposition. Fully 53% of this group say that the law won't stop criminals, 23% say it costs too much, 18% believe that it is an invasion of privacy and 12% maintain that it is "their right" to own a gun. (SEE TABLE #3B)

Albertans Evaluate the Liberal Pre-election "Mini-budget"

Just prior to dropping the writ, the Liberal party presented Canadians with an "update" on the country's finances, and their proposals for the future use of government surpluses. Results from this late-October survey reveal that the planks of the Liberal "mini-budget" are quite favourable with Albertans.

Survey participants were presented with three primary pillars of the Liberal economic plan, related to tax cuts, social spending and debt retirement, and asked whether they felt that the Liberals were planning to spend "too much", "about the right amount" or "too little" on each. (SEE TABLE 4A)

• $21 Billion on Extra Transfers to the Provinces for Health & Social Spending in Over the Next 5 Years: A majority of Albertans (55%) feel that this amount is "about right", although one-third (32%) maintain that it is "not enough" and 9% say it is "too much".
• Cut Taxes by $100 Billion Over the Next 5 Years: A majority of Albertans (51%) say that this level of tax relief is "about right", although one-quarter (23%) say that $100 Billion is "too much" and nearly the same proportion (21%) believe that more should be devoted cutting taxes.
• $10 Billion Toward Debt Reduction Over the Next 2 Years: Again, a majority of the voters in Alberta (53%) feel that this is the right course with respect to retiring the federal debt. However, one-third (33%) believe that more federal dollars should be directed toward eliminating the national debt and 10% feel that less should be spent on this.

When asked to assess the Liberal "mini-budget" overall, Albertans offer a substantial (if less than enthusiastic) endorsement. Fully 72% of Albertans say they approve of these budget plans overall, although only 11% "strongly" support the Liberal plans. Meanwhile, only one-quarter (25%) of those interviewed offer any degree of opposition to the Liberal pre-election plan. (SEE TABLE 4B)

Albertans' Attitudinal Assessment of the Campaign

The October survey provided respondents with a list of attitudinal statements about the campaign, and asked them to what degree they personally agreed or disagreed with each. Based on this analysis, we find that the "trust factor" is definitely an asset for the Canadian Alliance among Alberta voters, while it appears as a weakness for the Liberals. Fully 68% of those interviewed agree with the statement "I trust the Canadian Alliance to do what they say", compared to only 31% who agree with the same statement substituting the Liberals for CA. For their part, the Liberals also suffer negativity from a portion of the Alberta electorate due to the timing of the election. Just under six-in-ten (57%) Albertans agree that the "Liberals should not be calling an election only 3 189 years after the last one". This line of questioning also reveals that "electability" is an issue for the Progressive Conservatives. Six-in-ten (60%) Alberta voters agree that "voting for the PCs is a wasted vote", while 54% feel the PCs will not "do better in this election than in the last one". Meanwhile, a slim majority of the province (57%) believe that the "Canadian Alliance has a good chance of forming the next government". Finally, a slim majority of Albertans do not want to see a minority government on November 27th - just over one-half (52%) of voters in the October survey disagree with the statement "Regardless of who wins, I would like to see a minority government". (SEE TABLE #5)

Albertans' Emotional Reaction to Alternative Election Outcomes

Finally, this early-campaign poll sought to gauge what the reaction to various election outcomes (i.e. a Canadian Alliance majority government vs. a Liberal majority government) would be among the Alberta electorate. The survey probed about whether Albertans thought these outcomes would be a "good thing" or "bad thing" for the country, and were asked how well a prompted list of emotions (concerned, happy, optimistic, surprised) would describe their personal emotions under the two electoral scenarios.

A Canadian Alliance Majority Government

• A majority of Alberta voters (57%) believe that a majority CA government on November 27th would be a "good thing" for the country (29% say it would be a "very good thing" and 28% a "fairly good thing"), compared to only 22% who feel a CA majority would translate into a downward spiral for Canada. Meanwhile, another 19% feel that an Alliance majority government "would not make much of a difference" for Canada. (SEE TABLE #6A)
• Albertans' emotional reaction to this election outcome is an interesting mix. A majority of Albertans (68%) say that "Optimistic" would describe their feelings "very" or "fairly" well, with nearly as many indicating that a CA majority would make them "happy" (64% report that "happy" would describe their feelings "very" or "fairly" well). At the same time however, most Alberta voters do not see a majority government in the cards for CA - nearly seven-in-ten (69%) say that they would be "surprised" if this happened. Meanwhile, there is a substantial minority of the province who would view an Alliance majority victory with concern - 46% of those interviewed say that "concerned" would describe their feelings "very" or "fairly" well, compared to 54% do not feel this describes their feelings. (SEE TABLE #6B)

A Liberal Majority Government

• If the Liberals manage to put together their third consecutive majority government on November 27th, the news will not be greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm in Alberta. Indeed, over one-third (37%) of voters believe this would be a "very bad" or "fairly bad thing" for the country, while the same proportion (37%) say that it "wouldn't make much of a difference". Only one-quarter (25%) of those interviewed in this survey believe that a third majority Liberal government would be good for the country (with only 7% saying it would be a "very good thing"). (SEE TABLE #7A)
• Albertans' emotional reaction to another majority Liberal government in Ottawa, would neither be "happy", "optimistic" or "surprised", although a sizeable proportion would be concerned. Only one-third (35%) of Alberta voters say that "happy" would capture their feelings "very well" or "fairly well" upon hearing the news of a Liberal majority government. A similar proportion of the electorate (40%) offers that the word "optimistic" would capture their feelings with regard to the Liberals, and only 31% say they would be "surprised" by a third Liberal majority. The emotion which seems to be most synonymous with the thought of another Liberal government in Alberta is "concerned" - fully 56% of voters interviewed say that this words captures their feelings "very well" or "fairly well".

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)

OR

Tim Olafson
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)