Federal Political Scene in Alberta Late October 2000

Calgary, AB - The results of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV Alberta poll show that after one full week of campaigning, the Canadian Alliance enjoys a strong lead in the province, both in terms of campaign momentum and popular vote. Nearly four-in-ten (39%) Albertans say their views on Stockwell Day and the Alliance have improved over the past few weeks compared to only 18 percent who report their feelings have soured.

Bolstered by this momentum, the Alliance now garners 59 percent of the decided-vote in Alberta, up 5 percentage points since August 2000. Although they currently sit in second-place in Alberta, the Liberals are stalled at 26 percent of the decided vote, and are hindered by shifts in voter perceptions over the past few weeks. Only 7 percent of Albertans say their feelings about Jean Chretien and the Liberals have improved through the first week of campaigning, while 44 percent say their opinion has worsened. Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservatives and New Democratic Party are languishing in Alberta, failing to break double-digits in terms of decided vote (currently 7% and 5% of the vote respectively). Currently, 7 percent of Albertans are undecided.

During the first week of campaigning, the Liberal strategy has been to polarize the electorate - the Prime Minister has positioned the election as a choice between the Liberals and the Canadian Alliance. While this strategy may benefit the Liberals in other parts of the country, it provides no real dividends in Alberta. In a "head-to-head" Alliance vs. Liberal simulation, the survey reveals that Albertans would pick Stockwell Day and the Canadian Alliance over Jean Chretien and the Liberals, two-to-one (63% for Alliance, 32% for Liberals).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV Alberta poll conducted between October 25th and October 29th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Alberta population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Albertan population according to the 1996 Census data.

Detailed analysis of the survey results can be found on the pages that follow.

Assessing Campaign Momentum

One of the most important indicators of campaign dynamics is referred to as "Momentum". In other words, has your opinion of a particular leader and their party improved or worsened over the last few weeks. The survey reveals that Stockwell Day and the Canadian Alliance conclude the first week of campaigning with a dramatic edge over the other parties on this front - indeed, they are the only party showing positive campaign momentum in the province. Fully 39 percent of those interviewed report their feelings about Mr. Day and his party have improved over the course of the past several weeks, compared to only 18 percent who maintain their opinion has worsened - this nets to +21 percent. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Chretien and the Liberals have "stumbled out of the blocks" as far as most Albertans are concerned. Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) Alberta voters say their feelings about the Liberals have improved recently, compared to over four-in-ten (44%) who say their opinions have soured (net - 37%). Albertans' feelings about Joe Clark and the Progressive Conservative Party are also trending negative at this stage of the campaign. Fully 12 percent say their feelings have improved over the past couple of weeks compared to 23 percent reporting a decline (for a net of - 11%). Voter perspectives on Alexa McDonough and the New Democratic Party have not shifted notably through the first week of campaigning. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of those interviewed say their opinions of the NDP "have not changed" in the past couple of weeks, while 7 percent report improvement and 9 percent a decline (for a net of - 2%). (SEE TABLE #1)

• Alliance momentum is highest among men (net +33%) and those residing outside of Edmonton (net +28%).
• Perceptions about Liberal momentum tend to be more negative among men (net -44%), those residing outside of Edmonton (net -41%) and tend to sour with age (from net -29% among 18-34 year olds to net -50% among those aged 55+).

Current Federal Party Standings in Alberta

With the General Election less than one month away, the Canadian Alliance has a firm hold on the province of Alberta. Currently, fewer than one-in-ten (7%) Albertans are uncertain about which party they plan to vote for in the upcoming election, and among decided voters, the Canadian Alliance captures 59 percent, compared to 26 percent for the Liberals, 7 percent for the Progressive Conservatives, 5 percent for the NDP and 2 percent for various other parties. (SEE TABLE #2A)

• CA voting is high throughout the province, although the Alliance lead is smallest in Edmonton (43%).
• Men (61%) are more likely than women (48%) to vote for the CA, and the Alliance share of the vote tends to increase with age (from 48% of young Albertans to 64 of older Albertans).
• In contrast, Liberal fortunes are highest in Edmonton (31% - although they trail Alliance by 11 percentage points). Also, Liberal voting is higher among women (23%) than men (20%), and declines with age (from 27% among young residents to 16% among older residents).

The Canadian Alliance share of the decided vote has increased since August 2000, up 5 percentage points from 54 percent. In contrast, the Liberals, PCs and NDP have all seen nominal erosion in their support since August. (SEE TABLE #2B)

In addition to capturing the highest proportion of the decided vote in the province, the Canadian Alliance also boasts the most firmly committed supporters of any federal party. Among likely Alliance voters, fully 86 percent say they are certain about their decision. Sixty-two percent are "Very Certain" about their decision, while another 24 percent are "Fairly Certain". In contrast, the vote for other parties is considerably "softer". Only 68 percent of Liberal supporters say they are either "Very" (39%) or "Fairly" (29%) sure about the decision, while two-thirds (65%) of NDP supporters show similar levels of conviction (36% are "Very Certain" and 29% are "Fairly Certain". Support for the Progressive Conservatives is the "softest" of any of the parties 38%) - only 15 percent of likely Tory voters are "Very Certain" of their choice, while another 23 percent are at least "Fairly Certain". (SEE TABLE #2C)

Simulated "Head-to-Head" Balloting & 2nd Choice Alternatives

Prime Minister Jean Chretien began the campaign by telling voters that this election was essentially about two clear choices: The Liberals or the Alliance. While this strategy may benefit the Liberals in other parts of the country, it provides no real dividends in Alberta.

Ipsos-Reid asked voters to "imagine for a minute that you can only vote for the Alliance or the Liberals". Under these circumstances, a firm majority of Alberta voters support Stockwell Day's Alliance (63%), while 32 percent would vote for Chretien's Liberals, 3 percent wouldn't vote and another 2 percent are uncertain how they would vote. (SEE TABLE 3)

The late-October survey also appears to posit some long-shot hope for the Progressive Conservatives in the province, depending upon the performance of the Canadian Alliance and Liberals leading up to November 27th. Currently, a large share of Liberal and Canadian Alliance voters identify the Progressive Conservatives as their "second choice" - 46 percent of Alliance voters say the Tories would be their second choice, and 32 percent of Liberal voters say likewise. Should the Alliance or the Liberals falter during the remainder of the campaign, the Progressive Conservatives stand to be the primary beneficiaries. (SEE TABLE 4)

Albertans' Views on the Liberal Record

According to this early-campaign survey, Albertans are ready for a change in government. Only one-third (33%) of those interviewed believe that the Liberals "deserve to be re-elected because, overall, they have been doing what's right for the country". In comparison, nearly two-thirds (63%) maintain that the Liberals should not be re-elected "because one of the other major federal parties could do a better job managing the country". Another 3 percent of Albertans aren't sure whether or not the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)

OR

Tim Olafson
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)