Federal Political Scene March 2001

Toronto, Ontario -- The results of a recent Ipsos-Reid/CTV poll reveals that if an election were held tomorrow, 44 percent of decided voters would support the Liberals. The Canadian Alliance comes a distant second place with 19 percent support while the PCs would get 14 percent and the NDP would get 11 percent support. In addition, the poll shows that if the Canadian Alliance and PCs formed a new right wing party, the new party would receive more support under the leadership of Joe Clark (32%) than under Stockwell Day (26%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV poll conducted between March 8th and March 10th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 803 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Liberals (44%) Continue Well Ahead of Other Parties in Popular Support - Alliance (19%), PCs (14%) and NDP (11%)

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive 44 percent support among decided voters. The percentage support for each party is listed below:

• Liberals - 44%
• Canadian Alliance - 19%
• PC - 14%
• NDP - 11%
• BQ (Quйbec only) - 32%
• Other - 5%

Ontario (49%) and Atlantic Canada (54%) continue to be the Liberals' stronghold, however, they also receive strong support in Quebec (46%). Their lowest support comes from Alberta (20%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%). Support for the Liberal party (44%) is essentially unchanged since early February 2001 (43%).

At 19 percent, the Canadian Alliance places a distant second in overall support among decided voters. Support for the Canadian Alliance remains Western based, with the highest support in Alberta (39%) and B.C. (35%) but Alliance support in this region has been eroding in the last few months. Nationally, support for Alliance has dipped slightly (3 points) from 22 percent in February 2001.

Although the PCs are currently in third place with 14 percent support, there is evidence that they are eroding Alliance support in the west - PC support in Alberta now stands at 25 percent.

A New United Party on the Right Would Get More Support Under Clark (32%) than Day (26%)

As talks between the Alliance and the PCs continue in an effort to "unite the right", Canadians say they would be more likely to support this new merged party if Joe Clark were the leader (32%) as opposed to Stockwell Day (26%).

• A newly merged party with Clark at the head receives higher support than with Day at the head in all provinces except Alberta.
• Older Canadians are much more likely to support a new party under Clark (40%) as opposed to Day (26%).
• Men are much more likely to support a Clark-led party (39%) as opposed to a Day-led party (30%).

If the new party is able to bring together the current support for the Alliance (19%) and the current support for the PCs (14%) total support for the new party would be 33 percent. At 32 percent Clark comes close to capturing the current combined support of each party while Day falls 7 points short (26%).

In addition, Clark would be more likely than Day to take votes from the Liberals. With a new merged party led by Clark, support for the Liberals would drop 2 points (from 44% to 42%), while under Day support for the Liberals would increase 5 points (from 44% to 49%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900