Federal Political Trends

The federal Liberals continue to enjoy very solid popular support levels according to the latest National Angus Reid Poll, while the Conservatives have inched upwards to regain a marginal hold on a very distant second place over the Reform party. Notwithstanding the Liberals' continued high support levels as they passed the second anniversary of their election, most Canadians are at a loss to highlight specific accomplishments of this government but most are able to cite disappointments of the federal Liberals' two years in power. The poll was conducted among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian voters between October 25th and November 1st, 1995 - the interviewing in English-speaking Canada was conducted prior to the October 30th Quebec referendum, while close to half of the 400 interviews in Quebec were conducted after the vote. Not surprisingly, national unity/Quebec's future dominated the public's issues agenda at the time this poll was taken.

The highlights of the poll results on the federal party standings are as follows:

The Liberals are currently holding 56 percent of the decided vote across the country, while the Conservatives are at 14 percent, Reform is at 12 percent, the Bloc Quebecois is at 8 percent, and the federal New Democrats are at 8 percent. All other parties combined are currently holding the support of 2 percent of decided voters. (The poll finds a total of 27% of Canadian voters are currently undecided/refused or do not intend to vote in an upcoming federal election.) Across English-speaking regions of the country, the federal Liberals are currently holding 60 percent of the decided vote, the Reform party and the Conservatives are tied at 14 percent each, and the New Democrats are at 10 percent.

These current national party standings reflect no significant change since late September - the PC's and NDP have inched only marginally upwards (2 points and 1 point respectively), while Reform and the Liberals have both slipped a couple of points.

The federal Liberals have been in the mid to high 50's in popular support throughout their sustained post-election honeymoon (spiking over 60% at the time of their first anniversary and the delivery of this year's budget). They continue to enjoy a lead in all major regions of the country (this poll shows them in the 60's in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and B.C.), but dipping to 42 percent in Quebec (against 36% for the BQ).

The federal Conservatives have inched up a marginal 2 points to edge out Reform (down 2) for a very distant second place. The Tories had hit their current 14 percent support level in July, having gained 9 points since February. Their 2 point gain since last month has come from Atlantic Canada (back at 21%) and Quebec (13%).

This current poll shows the Bloc Quebecois holding 36 percent of the decided vote within Quebec compared to 42 percent for the federal Liberals here. This represents a 10-point decline in Liberal support and a 3-point increase for the Bloc since late September (Reform and the Conservatives both recorded similar marginal gains). This has turned a 19-point lead for the Liberals in late September into only 6 points in late October/early November.

For the New Democrats, fresh from electing Alexa McDonough as their new leader, this poll shows them holding 8 percent of the decided national vote, and peaking at 21 percent in Manitoba/Saskatchewan. This is basically consistent with where the party has ranked since the October 1993 election (7% in that contest, and ranging from 4% to 9% since then). In terms of voters' initial reaction to the new party leader, fully 80 percent of those polled in late October said the change in leadership will "make no difference" in the likelihood of their supporting the NDP, while 8 percent said they would be more likely to back the NDP with Ms. McDonough as leader, against 5 percent who said they would now be less likely to do so.

The voters participating in this National Angus Reid Poll, conducted as the Chretien Liberals were celebrating the second anniversary of their 1993 election win, were asked to highlight in their own words what they see as the major accomplishments and major disappointments of the Chretien Liberal government so far. The results of this open-ended probing indicate that, notwithstanding their continued high levels of popular support, voters can cite a number of disappointments associated with the Chretien Liberals' first two years in power, but most are hardpressed to cite any accomplishments.

In terms of the Liberal government's accomplishments, two-thirds (65%) of those polled could not cite any - 38 percent said there had been no major accomplishments and 27 percent said they could not think of any. Accomplishments mentioned with greatest frequency included: their actions on the deficit/spending front (13% volunteered this); unity issues/Quebec (7%); and jobs (5%). Other perceived accomplishments were each named by 2 percent or fewer of voters polled.

On the disappointment side, only one in three (31%) were at a loss for words. The disappointments cited with greatest frequency included: national unity/Quebec's future (22%); the deficit/spending (15%); the infrastructure program (15%); cuts to social program funding (8%); jobs (8%); a perception that the Liberals have not done anything (5%); broken promises (4%); leadership (4%); and gun control (3%); among others each mentioned by 2 percent or fewer of those polled.

A look back at the electorate's appraisal of the Mulroney Conservative government's performance at the time of their first term second anniversary in 1986 shows a broadly similar appraisal to that currently offered for the Chretien Liberal government. One difference is that the Conservatives were down at 35 percent of the popular vote at their second anniversary, narrowly trailing the Liberals. Voters' appraisal of their accomplishments and disappointments was much like the findings of the current poll. Two-thirds of voters could not single out an accomplishment of the Mulroney Conservatives' first two years in office, with a handful citing various perceived economic achievements - the economy (7%), jobs (5%), the deficit (5%) and the start-up of free trade talks (4%).

As for disappointments, only one in four (23%) of those polled at the Mulroney Conservatives' second anniversary in power could not cite one, and a range of perceived shortcomings on the policy front (headed by jobs at 12%) and "style" front (headed by scandals at 10% and broken promises at 9%) were cited. The appraisal was much worse at the second anniversary of their second term in 1990 when the Mulroney Conservatives were at a rock bottom 15 percent level of support. Then, voters found it even more difficult to cite an accomplishment (71% could not), with free trade topping the list at only 8 percent. On the disappointment side, only one in twenty (6%) were at a loss, and the perceived shortcomings covered a wide range: the GST (28%); Meech Lake (27%); free trade (15%); Oka (14%); perceived unresponsiveness (12%); leadership (10%); and the deficit/spending (10%), among others.

The Public's Agenda

The late-October National Angus Reid Poll - conducted between October 25th and November 1st (pre-referendum outside Quebec and straddling the vote within Quebec) - asked Canadians to name those issues which they believe are the most critical for the country's leaders to address right now. This "open-ended" question, which led off the survey, elicited the following responses (presented here in descending order of their level of total mentions):

National Unity/Quebec's Political Future: The future of Canadian Confederation catapulted to the uppermost heights of the public's agenda as the sovereignty referendum loomed in Quebec. Fully 70 percent of Canadians participating in this survey cited unity/Quebec "top-of-mind" as the most pressing issue facing the country at this time. This represents a 17-point increase over the 53 percent level of mentions garnered by this issue in the Angus Reid Group's September monitor of the public's agenda, and is fully 48 points higher than the 22 percent of Canadians polled in July who singled out national unity/Quebec's political future as the nation's number one priority.

Jobs/Unemployment:

• In this context, the unemployment situation placed a distant second on Canadians' policy priorities list at referendum time - this issue was pinpointed by around one in four (27%) of those surveyed (down just a few points from levels recorded earlier this fall and summer).

The Economy:

• One in five (20%) Canadians participating in this sounding said the state of the economy in general is something which currently warrants serious attention in the country.

Government Deficits/Debt:

• Fifteen percent of survey respondents pointed to the deficit/debt as the most important issue for Canada today. This issue's "top-of-mind" presence on the public agenda continues to slip since earlier this year (in February, just before the federal budget was released, almost one-half of Canadians cited this concern and, as recently as July, mentions were almost twice current levels).

Health Care:

• Seven percent of surveyed Canadians felt that the health care system in this country should be the main priority right now, roughly half the level of mentions which this issue has drawn in soundings taken since this spring.

Other Social Services:

• A similar number (6%) named social services other than health care in response to this open-ended question.

Poverty:

• Issues related to poverty were also deemed by roughly one in twenty (6%) respondents to be the most urgent for Canada to address right now. A number of other public policy issues were each cited by smaller numbers of Canadians responding to this late-October poll, including: crime/justice (4%, down from 11% in July); education (3%); taxes (3%); the environment (2%); issues pertaining to Canada's constitution (2%); and others cited by still smaller numbers.

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between October 25th and November 1st, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian adults. The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 200; Alberta - 136; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 121; Ontario - 526; Quebec - 400; Atlantic - 120. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1503, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For further information, contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900