Federal Politics, Federal Management of the Economy and the Public's Agenda

While the federal Liberals are still way out in front in terms of the national party support figures, the results of the latest National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll show considerable dissatisfaction in Quebec and also indicate that the Canadian electorate has some complaints about the performance of the Chretien Liberal government, particularly their management of the economy. The poll, conducted between November 20th and 26th among a representative cross-section of 1506 voters, shows that economic concerns and the national unity debate continue to dominate the public's policy agenda at this time.

Federal Politics

The poll's main findings on the federal political scene include:

The November National Angus Reid Poll shows the federal Liberals holding 52 percent of the decided vote nationally, the Reform party at 15 percent (at 19% across English-speaking regions), the Conservatives at 13 percent, the Bloc Quebecois at 9 percent nationally (41% in Quebec), the NDP at 9 percent, and all other parties at 2 percent. (A total of 26% of those surveyed were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election.) These latest party standings show the Liberals have slipped marginally since earlier this fall -- down 4 points from late October and 6 points from September -- while all other parties have edged up marginally since last month, notably the Reform party which is up 3 points and has retaken a hold on a very distant second place over the Conservatives.

Regionally, the Liberals have lost ground this past month in B.C. and Alberta, but have more or less held their own elsewhere. They continue to enjoy a solid lead in all major regions with the important exceptions of Alberta and Quebec. In Alberta, the Liberals have traded places with Reform (who are now up at 48% against the Liberals' 32%). In Quebec, the Liberals are now tied with the Bloc Quebecois (43% versus 41% respectively).

In terms of voters' appraisal of the government's overall direction, this latest Angus Reid Poll shows 55 percent of Canadians believe the federal government is "on the right track" while 35 percent believe they are "on the wrong track" and 10 percent are unsure. While this is a fairly solid appraisal, the proportion believing the government is "on the right track" is down 10 percentage points since this question was last asked in an Angus Reid Poll in May -- indeed, these current results are the first time in the Angus Reid Group's post-election tracking that the government's "right track" rating has slipped under the 60 percent mark. Consistent with the parties' support levels, the Liberals' overall direction meets with lower marks in Alberta and, especially, in Quebec where fully 57 percent of those surveyed said the federal government is "on the wrong track" versus only 33 percent who gave their approval -- this compares to a 50%-41% "right track" endorsement offered by Quebecers six months ago.

With respect to the personal popularity of the party leaders, the Prime Minister's performance meets with the approval of 63 percent of Canadian voters against 32 percent who disapprove. While this is solid, it shows some slippage from the Prime Minister's approval rating in March when the margin of approval was 70 percent to 23 percent. Once again, this downward drift is primarily (but not exclusively) driven by voters in Quebec where 60 percent now voice disapproval against 34 percent who approve -- this compares to a 47 percent versus 42 percent approval margin recorded in March. In English-speaking Canada, almost three-quarters (73%) approve of the Prime Minister's performance.

In the case of Lucien Bouchard, two-thirds (64%) of Quebecers approve of his performance as leader of the official opposition (a marginal improvement), while fully 86 percent of non-Quebecers disapprove (up from already low levels in March). (Table 3B) For Preston Manning, nationally, 47 percent of those surveyed disapproved of his performance versus 35 percent who approved -- in March, the Reform party leader received a divided assessment nationally. Mr. Manning does very well in Alberta and receives a split assessment in B.C., but his performance meets with a negative appraisal in all other major regions.

The Federal Government's Management of the Economy

The results of this National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll suggest that Canadians offer a fairly critical appraisal of the federal government's performance in terms of economic management.

Asked if there had been any change in their confidence in the federal government's ability to properly manage the economy over the past few months, one-half (49%) of the voters polled in the latter part of November reported that their confidence had worsened (32% worsened a little, 17% worsened a lot), compared to only half as many (28%) who said their confidence had improved (only 2% a lot, 26% a little); one in five (19%) of those surveyed volunteered that there had been no change in their confidence in the federal government's economic management abilities. Voters in all regions of the country are more likely to report decreasing rather than increasing confidence in the federal government's economic management, and in Alberta (60%), Quebec (65%) and the Atlantic region (60%), a full majority report declining confidence. Analysis of these responses by socio-economic strata shows survey respondents living in lower income households more likely than their affluent counterparts to report worsening confidence in the federal government's management of the economy.

Asked what they think about the federal government's spending cuts in the last budget, 36 percent of those surveyed said they feel that federal spending cuts have "gone as far as they need to go" compared to fully 59 percent who said they believe there is "still a need for further cutting". This is the majority view in all major regions except the Atlantic. This latter group was asked whether they believe there is a need for only minor cuts or for major cuts to public spending. The results of this follow-up questioning show that those who see a need for further cuts, advocate major cuts over minor cuts by a margin of two to one; therefore, the 59 percent of all Canadians who advocate further federal spending cuts splits into 18 percent who believe further cuts should be only minor and fully 39 percent who advocate further major cuts. Once again, there is a significant difference in opinion across income groups: three-quarters (72%) of the most affluent and six in ten (58%) of the middle income group advocate further cuts, but lower income respondents (total annual household income under $30,000) were evenly split on this question.

The Canadian public is also critical of the Chretien Liberals' delivery on the job creation front. Asked how good a job they have done in keeping their election promise to focus on creating jobs for Canadians, fully 68 percent of those surveyed said they believe the federal Liberals have done a poor job (17% very poor, 51% poor) compared to 26 percent who believe the government has done a good job (1% very good, 25% good). Canadians from all major regions and from all walks of life give the government's job creation efforts a poor grade.

The Public's Agenda

The November National Angus Reid Poll also asked Canadians to name those issues which they believe are the most critical for the country's leaders to address right now. This "open-ended" question, which led off the survey, elicited the following responses (presented here in descending order of their level of total mentions):

National Unity/Quebec's Political Future: This issue still tops the public's priority list with "top-of-mind" mentions at 40 percent. This is down from late October, right at the time of the referendum, when mentions hit 70 percent and from September when the campaign was getting underway (53% at that time), but is far higher than the unity debate's placement on the agenda this summer, and certainly keeps the issue as a dominant presence on the public's list of concerns.

Jobs/Unemployment:

• The unemployment situation places second on Canadians' policy priorities list -- this issue was pinpointed by one in three (31%) of those surveyed, largely consistent with where it has placed the past several months.

The Economy:

• Thirty percent of Canadians participating in this sounding said the state of the economy in general is something which currently warrants serious attention in the country, up 10 percentage points over last month, and higher than this item has registered in a couple of years.

Government Deficits/Debt:

• One in five (22%) survey respondents pointed to the deficit/debt as the most important issue for Canada today. This issue's "top-of-mind" presence on the public agenda has climbed since earlier this fall (it was 15% last month when all eyes were on Quebec), but is still down since earlier this year (in February, just before the federal budget was released, almost one-half of Canadians cited this concern).

Health Care/Medicare:

• Ten percent of surveyed Canadians felt that the health care system in this country should be the main priority right now.

Poverty:

• Issues related to poverty were deemed by seven percent of respondents to be the most urgent for Canada to address right now.

Other Social Services:

• Six percent named social services other than health care in response to this open-ended question. A number of other public policy issues were each cited by smaller numbers of Canadians responding to this November poll, including: education (4%); crime/justice (4%, down from 11% in July); gun control (2%); government/politics (2%); taxes (2%); aboriginal issues (2%); the environment (2%); immigration/refugees (2%); and other issues cited by still smaller numbers.

---

The Survey Questions

"Thinking of how you feel right now, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support if a federal election were held tomorrow?" (Do Not Read List)

"All things considered, would you say the federal Liberal government is on the right track or the wrong track in terms of the overall direction in which they have been leading the country?"

"Thinking of (Read Leader's Name -- Randomize), would you say you generally approve or disapprove of the way he has performed as (APPROPRIATE TITLE)?" (REPEAT FOR EACH LEADER)

"Over the last few months, would you say that your confidence in the federal government's ability to properly manage the economy has improved or worsened? (Is that improved/worsened a little or a lot?)"

"As you may know, the federal government cut public spending in its last budget. In your view, do you think federal spending cuts have gone as far as they need to go, or is there still a need for further cutting?"

(If Further Cutting Needed:)

"And, would you say there is still a need for only minor cuts to public spending, or that there continues to be a need for major cuts?"

"One of the major promises made by Jean Chretien and the Liberals during the 1993 election campaign was that, if elected, they would focus on creating jobs for Canadians. Generally speaking, would you say they've done a very good, good, poor, or very poor job of keeping this promise?"

"Thinking of the issues presently confronting Canada, which one do you feel should receive the greatest attention from Canada's leaders? What other issues do you think are important for Canada right now?" (Record Up To Three Responses)

---

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between November 20th and 26th, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1506 Canadian adults . The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. -- 202; Alberta -- 135; Manitoba/Saskatchewan -- 120; Ontario -- 529; Quebec -- 400; Atlantic -- 120. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1506, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

---

For further information, contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900