As Final Week Of 2006 Election Begins, Tories Within Close Striking Distance Of Winning Majority Government
The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News from January 6th to January 8th, was fielded among an Ipsos Reid panel of 8256 Canadians who say they are either "absolutely certain" or "very likely" to vote on election day.
Currently, the Conservatives attract 38% support (+1 point from a January 8th Ipsos Reid survey) and now hold an impressive 12-point lead over the Liberals (26%, unchanged).
Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (19%, +1 point) and the Green Party (5%, unchanged) have been unable to gain ground in terms of national vote support over the past week.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois now hold 48% of federal votes (-5 points) versus the Conservatives who at 25% (+5 points) now lead the Liberals (13%, -2 points).
Ipsos Reid's seat model projects that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 149-153 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 64-68 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 29-33 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 57-61 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News from January 13th to January 15th, 2006. A total of 8256 Canadian voters were surveyed via the internet, yielding results which are accurate to within 177 1.1% (19 times out of 20). The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure that the sample's age, sex, regional and party support composition reflects that of the actual Canadian voter population. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of over 12,000 voters drawn from Ipsos Reid's internet panel.
Federal Vote Question Pins Conservatives (38%) With 12-Point Lead Over Liberals (26%)...
Federal voting intentions:
Five percent of respondents are undecided about whom they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois now hold 48% of federal votes (-5 points) versus the Conservatives who at 25% (+5 points) now lead the Liberals (13%, -2 points).
Seat Range Projection Model: Conservatives 149-153 Seats, Liberals 64-68, NDP 29-33, Bloc Quebecois 57-61
Ipsos Reid's seat model projects that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 149-153 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 64-68 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 29-33 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 57-61 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.
Regional Tables...
Please open attached files to view full press release and detailed tables.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr.Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
[email protected]
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
[email protected]
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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada - including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country - all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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