As The Final Week Begins, Too Close To Call

Toronto, ON - As the federal election race rounds the bend into the final home-stretch it appears that the next few days will be crucial in determining the outcome of what appears to be a race that's too close to call.

While the Conservatives appeared to have a post-debate bump in the polls, the end of the week and weekend produced a number of stumbling stones for the party and it appears to have taken a major toll in seat-rich Ontario.

Among the notable happenings by the end of the poll time-frame:

• Conservative leader Stephen Harper boasted, for the first time, that his Conservatives were on their way to a majority government; 183
• Alberta Premier Ralph Klein had raised the spectre of what Liberals indicate is a hidden agenda on healthcare by stating that he will not reveal what he will do until after the election; 183
• Accusations that the Conservatives would weaken Air Canada's bilingualism requirements; and
• A series of inflammatory remarks about the Prime Minister's personal, and his government's, record on child pornography.

It was also a time frame that featured new Liberal attack-style ads against the Conservatives.

In this most recent national poll, conducted from Friday night June 18th to Sunday night June 20th, 2004, the Liberal Party has risen slightly to take the lead with 34% of decided voter support (up 5 points). Conversely, the Conservative Party has dropped 4 points and now hold 28% of the national decided vote. This change in the national vote race can be largely credited to the changing federal landscape in the pivotal province of Ontario, where the Liberals (42%, up 8 points) have surged back into the lead over the Conservatives (30%, down 8 points) by a substantial 12 point margin.

Nationally, the New Democratic Party (16%, unchanged) and the Green Party (6%, down 1 point) continue to hold steady in this poll.

Quebec continues to be dominated by the Bloc Quebecois (53%, up 5 points), who now hold a towering 30 point lead over the Liberal Party (23%, up 1 point). The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).

According to an exclusive seat projection model provided to CTV and The Globe and Mail by Ipsos-Reid, if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 110-114 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 107-111 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 19-23 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 64-68 seats.

Among all eligible voters in Canada, six in ten (63%, down 1 point) are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the up-coming federal election, while 23% are likely to vote (15% "very likely", 8% "somewhat likely"), and 12% are not likely to vote (4% "not very likely", 8% "not likely at all").

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted from June 18th to June 20th, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001Census data.

Liberals (34%, Up 5 Points) Take Lead As Conservatives (28%, Down 4 Points) Stumble...

If a federal election were held tomorrow, Paul Martin and the Liberal Party would garner 34% of the decided vote (up 5 points), while Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party would garner 28% of the decided vote (down 4 points). Meanwhile, Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party (16%, unchanged) and Jim Harris and the Green Party (6%, down 1 point) hold steady in this most recent national poll, while 3% of decided voters would cast their support for some "other" party.

In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 53% of decided votes (up 5 points), and lead the Liberals (23%, down 1 point) by 30 points. The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).

Among all Canadians, 16% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held tomorrow (up 5 points).

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• In Ontario, the Liberals attract 42% of the decided vote (up 8 points), leading the Conservatives by 12 points (30%, down 8 points). The NDP continues to hold steady at 20% of decided voter support (up 2 points), and the Green Party trails very distantly with 6% of decided voter support (unchanged). 183
• In Quebec, a 30 point margin separates the Bloc Quebecois (53%, up 5 points) from the Liberals (23%, up 1 point). The NDP (9%, unchanged), the Conservatives (8%, down 5 points), and the Green Party (3%, down 4 points) register lower on the federal radar screen in this province. 183
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (36%, up 2 points) are essentially tied with the Liberals (32%, unchanged), while the NDP continues to slide (18%, down 3 points). The Green Party has 8% of the decided votes in this province (up 1 point). 183
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (45%, down 14 points) lead over the Liberals (25%, up 8 points) has now shrunk to 20 points. NDP decided vote support has risen 6 points to 17%. The Green Party trails further behind with 11% of decided vote support (up 4 points). 183
• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives (37%, up 1 point) and the Liberals (33%, up 5 points) are tightly knotted, while the NDP (17%, down 12 points) have fallen sharply. The Green Party attracts 7% of the decided vote (up 3 points). 183
• In Atlantic Canada the Conservatives (41%, up 19 points) and the Liberals (37%, down 6 points) are essentially tied. The NDP (15%, down 6 points) trails distantly, while the Green Party barely registers (2%, down 8 points).

Most Canadians (63%) Absolutely Certain They Will Vote in Up-Coming Federal Election...

Among all eligible voters in Canada, six in ten (63%, down 1 point) are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the up-coming federal election, while 23% are likely to vote (15% "very likely", 8% "somewhat likely"), and 12% are not likely to vote (4% "not very likely", 8% "not likely at all"). The remaining 2% of Canadians "don't know" if they will vote in the up-coming federal election.

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• Those Canadians most likely to be "absolutely certain" that they will vote in the upcoming federal election are residents of Quebec (66%), British Columbia (66%), and Ontario (65%), followed by Alberta (57%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%), and Atlantic Canada (51%). 183
• The proportion of those who are "absolutely certain" they will vote is equal across all party supporters: Conservative supporters (69%), Bloc Quebecois supporters (69%), Liberal supporters (67%), and NDP supporters (67%).

Seat Projection Model Suggests Conservatives Take 110-114 Seats, Liberals 107-111, NDP 19-23, Bloc Quebecois 64-68 -- If Vote Held Tomorrow...

In an exclusive seat projection model provided to CTV and The Globe and Mail, if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 110-114 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 107-111 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 19-23 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 64-68 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons. For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit: Turning Votes Into Seats To view the complete media relase and detailed tables please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, Ph.D.
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900