Ford and Conservatives Cruising to Third Majority Government

With less than a week to go until the Ontario election, the Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Doug Ford, have a significant 21-point lead among decided voters with 46%, surpassing Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals at 25% and Marit Stiles’ NDP at 21%. Though support for the Progressive Conservatives has dipped slightly (-4% since January), they remain comfortably ahead of the other parties and Doug Ford's approval rating is holding steady at 53%. Meanwhile, 13% of Ontarians remain undecided.

In addition to their lead in voter support, the Progressive Conservatives continue to benefit from Doug Ford's favorability as a leader. Nearly half (45%) of Ontarians believe Doug Ford would continue to make the best Premier of Ontario, followed by one-quarter (24%) who think Bonnie Crombie would be best Premier. Fewer than one in five (18%) chose Marit Stiles and 13% selected Mike Schreiner of the Green Party.

Additionally, 47% of voters believe the Ford government deserves re-election, a level of support sufficient for a strong majority government, and one point higher than when the election was announced.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 18 and 20, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 800 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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