The Ford Juggernaut: Despite Campaign Troubles,
Ford Well Out in Front of Two-Man Race for Mayor

Majority (55%) `Agrees' That Despite What Has Been Said or Alleged about Ford, He Could Still be a Great Mayor of Toronto

Toronto, ON - Despite the campaign troubles for mayoral-candidate Rob Ford in light of his controversial comments about immigration and recent revelations of charges laid against him in Florida regarding impaired driving and possession of marijuana (the latter charges were subsequently dropped), a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Global Television, NewsTalk 1010 and the National Post reveals that if a municipal election were held tomorrow, Rob Ford would be elected Mayor of Toronto.

One in three (32%) Torontonians would vote for Rob Ford, placing well well-ahead of his main rival George Smitherman (21%). Sarah Thomson (10%), Joe Pantalone (9%) and Rocco Rossi (7%) are all well back, while 4% say they'd vote for some other candidate. Two in ten (21%) Torontonians remain undecided, suggesting that ample time still remains for significant movement in voting intentions before the vote is held in October.

Furthermore, nearly one half (48%) of Torontonians, at this point, say they're absolutely certain to vote, and those who say they're absolutely certain to vote appear to be disproportionately favouring Rob Ford (37%), while the gap between Ford and Smitherman (23%), Pantalone (10%), Rossi (8%) and Thomson (7%) grows.

Over the past couple of weeks, impressions of Rob Ford have changed for one half of Torontonians, but it doesn't' appear to have had a major impact on his overall level of support since many Torontonians actually have an improved impression of him, and none of the other candidates have momentum on their side at this stage in the race:

  • Three in ten (30%) say they have a worse impression of Rob Ford over the last few weeks, while two in ten (20%) actually say their impression is better (net -10). Four in ten (41%) say there's been no change in their impression, while 2% don't' know and 6% say they've never heard of him.
  • One in ten (12%) say their impressions of George Smitherman have improved over the last few weeks, while slightly more (15%) say they've worsened (net -3). Most (61%) say their impressions have not changed, while 4% don't know and 8% say they've never heard of him.
  • One in ten (9%) say their impressions of Rocco Rossi have improved over the last few weeks, while slightly more (11%) say they've worsened (net -2). Most (62%) say their impressions have not changed, while 4% don't know and 14% say they've never heard of him.
  • One in ten (9%) say their impressions of Joe Pantalone have improved over the last few weeks, while roughly the same proportion (10%) say their impressions have worsened (net -1). Most (66%) say their impressions have not changed, while 4% don't know and 11% say they've never heard of him.
  • Few (7%) say their impressions of Sarah Thomson have improved over the last few weeks, slightly more than the 6% who say they've worsened (net +1). Most (66%) say their impressions have not changed, while 4% don't know and 17% say they've never heard of her.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Global Television, NewsTalk 1010 and the National Post from August 20-22, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 400 adults living in Toronto was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1774.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Toronto proper been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Toronto population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca .

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of e943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.). .

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