Grits Slump (35%) as Conservatives (28%) Eat Into Ontario, NDP Support Rises (18%) and Bloc (45%) Hold 15 Point Lead Over Liberals in Quebec. Green Party Steady at 5%.

Toronto, ON - Despite a post-budget Liberal party ad blitz, major announcements by the Prime Minister for such things as a billion dollar commitment to Toronto's Transit Commission, the announcement of an upcoming meeting with President George Bush and a campaign-style tour in various parts of the country, Paul Martin's Liberals have slumped in the polls to their lowest level since September 16, 1993 (35%) before taking office under Jean Chrйtien's first majority government in October of that year.

Further, this is the lowest level that the embattled Liberal Party has been at during the last two months since the sponsorship scandal broke. A poll conducted February 17 to 19th, 2004 had the Liberals at 36 percent , down from a January 15th poll when they were at 48 percent. A post-budget poll conducted March 23-25th, 2004 witnessed the Liberal Party fortunes at 38 percent. The poll released today conducted April 6-8th, 2004 shows the Liberal Party having slumped to 35 percent (down 3 points) while the Conservatives are at 28 percent (plus one), the NDP are at 18 percent (plus 3) and the Bloc Quйbйcois, in Quebec, are at 45 percent (down one point) to the Liberals who are at 30 percent (minus 3). The Green Party holds steady at five percent of decided voters. Another three percent indicate that they would vote for an "other party." The poll indicates that eight percent of voters do not know who they would vote for and another four percent would not vote or would spoil their ballot.

But perhaps the biggest vote slip is in the seat rich Province of Ontario where the Liberals have dropped six points to 41 percent, the Harper Conservatives have increased four points to 32 percent and Jack Layton's NDP have bumped-up two points to 19 percent.

In addition, momentum for the embattled Prime Minister and his party have been out-paced by their main rivals - in particular, momentum for the Liberal Party in every part of the country is causing drag - whereas each of the other parties in every region where it is fighting the Liberals enjoy positive momentum, especially the Conservatives.

As for each party leader assessed in this poll, the Prime Minister trails Conservative Party Leader, Stephen Harper; Jack Layton, Leader of the NDP; and, Gilles Duceppe, Leader of the Bloc Quйbйcois Party but is running ahead of his own party in terms of momentum.

In an seat projection model constructed by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for the CTV and the Globe and Mail, if an election were held tomorrow the Liberals would form a minority government with 144-148 seats followed by the Conservatives with 82-86 seats, with the Bloc with 55-59 seats and the NDP with 19-23 seats. In order to form a majority government a party must have 155 seats.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/The Globe and Mail poll conducted between April 6th and 8th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Grits Slump to Lowest Level Since 1993...

As indicated above, the Liberals have fallen to their lowest levels of support since 1993 and have slumped from an apparent vote stabilization just two weeks ago. The following are highlights on how decided voters would cast their ballots if an election were held tomorrow.

• In British Columbia the Liberals lead 30 percent to the Conservatives at 27 percent, the NDP at 25 percent and the Green Party at 13 percent.

• In Alberta the Conservatives lead with 46 percent to the Liberals at 31 percent, the NDP at 12 percent and the Green Party at five percent.

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives lead with 36 percent followed by the Liberals at 29 percent, the NDP at 27 percent and the Green Party at 4 percent.

• In Ontario the Liberals lead with 41 percent followed by the Conservatives at 32 percent, the NDP at 19 percent and the Green Party at five percent.

• In Quebec the Bloc leads with 45 percent followed by the Liberals at 30 percent, the Conservatives at 11 percent, the NDP at 10 percent and the Green Party at 2 percent.

• In Atlantic Canada the Liberals lead with 41 percent followed by the Conservatives at 29 percent, the NDP at 22 percent and the Green Party at 7 percent.

• Liberals - 35% (down 3 points): BC - 30% (up 2 points); Alberta - 31% (up 7 points); Saskatchewan/Manitoba - 29% (up 4 points); Ontario - 41% (down 6 points); Quebec - 30% (down 3 points); and, Atlantic Canada - 41% (down 6 points). Men - 37% (down 2 points) are more likely than women - 33% (down five points) to vote for the Liberals.

• Conservatives - 28% (up 1 point): BC - 27% (down 11 points); Alberta - 46% (down 8 points); Saskatchewan/Manitoba - 36% (up 8 points); Ontario - 32% (plus 4 points); Quebec - 11% (plus 3 points); and Atlantic Canada - 29% (plus 2 points). Men - 32% (up four points) are more likely than women - 24% (down 2 points) are more likely to vote Conservative.

• NDP - 18% (up 3 points): BC - 25% (up 7 points); Alberta - 12% (up 1 point); Saskatchewan/Manitoba - 27% (up 3 points); Ontario - 19% (up 2 points); Quebec - 10% (up 4 points) and Atlantic Canada - 22% (plus 8 points). Women - 21% (up six points) are more likely than men - 15% (up 1 point) to vote for the NDP.

• Bloc - 45% (down 1 point in the Province of Quebec) compared to the Liberals at 30% (down 3 points); the Conservatives at 11% (plus 3 points); the NDP at 10% (up 4 points) and, the Green Party at 2 percent (down five points).

• Green Party - 5% (remains steady): BC - 13% (plus one point); Alberta - 5% (plus 2 points); Saskatchewan/Manitoba - 4% (plus one point); Ontario - 5% (plus 2 points); Quebec - 2% (down 5 points); and, Atlantic Canada - 7% (plus 5 points).

Party and Leader Momentum...

Having momentum - or not having it - as a party or as a party leader is an important component for any run-up to an election campaign or campaign timeframe. In this poll, we asked the momentum for both the party and the leaders. A "net score" is calculated by removing those who do not have any impression and then subtracting the unfavourable from the favourable impressions that are held by the Canadians.

The attached data tables provide the full responses from Canadians on the major parties; however, the highlights for their party scores are as follows:

• Liberal Party led by Paul Martin: nationally, 17% favourable vs. 40% unfavourable for a net score of minus 23. Other net scores: BC - minus 23; Alberta - minus 20; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - minus 13; Ontario- minus 20; Quebec - minus 35; and, Atlantic Canada - minus 10.

• Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper: nationally, 26% favourable vs. 10% unfavourable for a net score of plus 16. Other net scores: BC - plus 23; Alberta - plus 24; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - plus 18; Ontario - plus 21; Quebec - plus 3; and the Atlantic Canada - plus 17.

• NDP Party led by Jack Layton: nationally, 18% favourable vs. 6% unfavourable for a net score of plus 12. Other net scores: BC - plus 7; Alberta - plus 18; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - 0; Ontario - plus 17; Quebec - plus 6; and, the Atlantic Canada - plus 13.

• Bloc Quйbйcois led by Gilles Duceppe: in Quebec plus 9.

The attached data tables provide the full responses from Canadians on the leaders of the major parties; however, the highlights for the leader scores are as follows:

• Paul Martin, leader of the Liberal Party: nationally, 41% favourable vs. 40% unfavourable for a net score of plus 1. Other net scores: BC - plus 9; Alberta - minus 9; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - plus 3; Ontario - plus 7; Quebec - minus 8; and, the Atlantic Canada - plus 7.

• Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party: nationally, 32% favourable vs. 23% unfavourable for a net score of plus 9. Other net scores: BC - plus 17; Alberta - plus 29; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - plus 15; Ontario - plus 9; Quebec - minus 5; and, the Atlantic Canada - plus 10.

• Jack Layton, leader of the NDP Party: nationally, 25% favourable vs. 19% unfavourable for a net score of plus 6. Other net scores: BC - plus 9; Alberta - plus 12; Saskatchewan/Manitoba - plus 7; Ontario - plus 6; Quebec - plus 1 and, the Atlantic Canada - plus 11.

• Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quйbйcois Party: in Quebec 44% favourable vs. 33% unfavourable for a net score of plus 11.

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and C.O.O.
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900