Grits Under Siege: Liberal Vote Collapse in Ontario,
NDP Surge Has Harper Tories Flirting with Majority

Toronto, ON - With less than a week to go before the French and English-language debates, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National reveals that the Tories (39%) remain in cruise control while the NDP (18%) is closing the gap on the Liberal Party (23%). Since last week, the Tories have held on to their lead (down 1 point), but the Liberals have dropped 4 points, in comparison to a 3-point gain for the NDP.

Further, if the vote were to occur tomorrow, the Green Party would receive 11% of the vote among decided voters (up 2 points), while the Bloc would garner 8% support, nationally (32% in Quebec). Five percent (5%) do not know for whom they would vote and remain undecided.

Below are the results broken down by region:

• In seat-rich Ontario, the Tories (41%) have widened their lead over the stumbling Liberals (28%). The NDP (16%) is only slightly ahead of the Green Party (13%).
• In Quebec, the Bloc (32%) has opened an eight-point lead over the Conservatives (24%). The Liberals (20%) and NDP (18%) are not far behind, with the Green Party (6%) well back in this province.
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (42%) are the front runners, but the NDP (31%) is solidly in second position. The Liberals (13%) and the Green Party (12%) are statistically tied.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (64%) continue to dominate over all the other parties, including the Green (18%), Liberals (14%) and NDP (3%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (63%) are in the lead, while the NDP (22%) has pulled ahead of the Liberals (15%).
• Atlantic Canada is the only region where the Liberals (40%) lead in the polls. The Conservatives (26%) and NDP (26%) are tied, while the Green Party (8%) trails behind.

These numbers suggest that Prime Minister Harper and his Conservatives are still flirting with a majority, having lost some ground in Quebec while at the same time increasing their national lead. But with a few weeks still left in the campaign, whether the Conservatives wind up with a majority or minority is still to be decided.

The following seat model has been rendered by Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The seat projection is based on an aggregate of polling data collected by LISPOP since the outset of the election, and this latest seat model has been updated to include this latest Ipsos Reid poll. Ipsos Reid does not create the seat model but contributes its findings to an aggregate base of polls used by Dr. Kay for the analysis.

With this current poll contribution to that aggregate base, the projection shows the Conservatives currently just shy of a majority with 153 seats for the Conservatives, 86 for the Liberals, 41 for the Bloc, 27 for the NDP, and 1 independent. For more information about the methodology and these projections, please visit www.wlu.ca/lispop/

Leader Impressions in Review...

The results of the poll reveal that Canadians believe that, once again, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has had the worst week of all the party leaders, with nearly four in ten (35%) Canadians indicating that their impressions of Dion `worsened' this week, while only 12% say their impressions of Mr. Dion `improved' over the last couple of days. This represents a net loss of 23 points (-23). Four in ten (41%) say their impressions of the Liberal Leader have not changed.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper fared only a little better, with three in ten (29%) Canadians saying their impression of the Prime Minister has `worsened' over the last couple of days, compared with 15% who say their impression of him `improved' during this time. This represents a net loss of 14 points (-14). Nearly one half (46%) says that their opinions of the Conservative Leader were unchanged.

Focusing on NDP Leader Jack Layton, it appears that Canadians overall were impressed by his performance this week. Two in ten (20%) say that their impressions of Mr. Layton have `improved' over the last few days, while only 14% say that they have `worsened'. This represents a net increase of 6 points (+6). A majority (55%) say that their opinions of the NDP leader did not change over the last few days.

Turning to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 16% said they had an `improved' view of the Ms. May over the last few days, while only 6% say their opinions of her have `worsened' in the last little while. This represents a net increase of 10 points (+10), making her , once again, the most improved leader over the last few days. Three quarters (75%) of Canadians say their impressions did not change.

Within Quebec, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe had a little better week this week than last, with 21% of Quebecers saying that they have a `worsened' opinion of Mr. Duceppe, but only 14% saying that their opinions of him had `improved' over the last little while. This represents a net loss of 7 points (-7), which is still an improvement over previous weeks' performances. Six in ten (56%) Quebecers indicate that their impressions of the Bloc Leader have not changed over the last few days.

The Issues...

The economy continues to dominate the campaign, with three in ten (29%, up 3 points) indicating that this is the issue that they most want the political leaders to be talking about. Next in line are healthcare (16%, down 3), taxes (12%, unchanged) and the environment (10%, down 1).

Rounding out the list of the ten issues presented to respondents are: crime/justice (9%, up 4), jobs/unemployment (7%, up 1), poverty (6%, unchanged), education/schools/universities (5%, up 1), armed forces/military/defence (2%, up 1), and terrorism (0%, unchanged).

Focusing on the first four issues of the campaign, here is what Canadians think about which party leader has the best policies and ideas for dealing with the issue:

• Economy - 36% Stephen Harper, 17% Stephane Dion, 13% Jack Layton, 3% Gilles Duceppe, 2% Elizabeth May, 30% don't know.
• Healthcare - 25% Stephen Harper, 19% Jack Layton, 12% Stephane Dion, 5% Gilles Duceppe, 2% Elizabeth May, 37% don't know.
• Taxes - 35% Stephen Harper, 15% Stephane Dion, 13% Jack Layton, 3% Gilles Duceppe, 2% Elizabeth May, 32% don't know.
• The Environment - 28% Elizabeth May, 15% Stephen Harper, 15% Stephane Dion, 11% Jack Layton, 2% Gilles Duceppe, 28% don't know.

Likelihood to Vote...

Come Election Day, the parties will be working hard to get their voters out to the polling stations. Overall, eight in ten (81%) Canadians say that they are at least `very likely' to vote, and 66% indicate that they are `absolutely certain'. Examining certainty to vote by party, here is what the data reveal:

• Liberal supporters are now most likely to go and vote, with 75% of those indicating that they will support the Grits indicating that they are `absolutely certain' to vote.
• A similar proportion of Conservative supporters (72%) are `absolutely certain' to cast their ballot on Election Day.
• Two in three (67%) Bloc supporters say they're `certain to vote'.
• Six in ten (61%) NDP supporters suggest they're `certain to vote'
• A similar proportion (59%) of those supporting the Green Party indicate that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.

Defecting Voters...

In order to better understand how voters are voting, examining for whom they voted last year allows one to determine whose voters are switching parties between elections, and whose are staying put.

It appears that the biggest erosion in support is from among former Liberal supporters. Only 62% of those who say they voted Liberal in the last election are once again voting Liberal, down two points from last week. This is compared to 73% of former NDP voters who say they are still voting NDP (up 5 points), 79% of Green Party voters who are still inclined to vote Green (up 10 points), 71% of Bloc voters from 2006 voting this way in 2008 (up 2 points), and 86% of Conservative Party voters who are once again voting for the government (down 2 points).

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from September 23 to September 25, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The second poll was conducted from September 23 to September 25, 2008. This online survey of 1092 Canadian adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. An unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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