Half (49%) of Canadians Bracing for `Bad News' Federal Budget; Few (9%) Think it will be `Good News'

Toronto, ON - One half (49%) of Canadians are bracing for a `bad news' federal budget - most especially those in Ontario (56%), Quebec (54%) and Atlantic Canada (54%) - according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global Television. A minority of Albertans (39%), British Columbians (36%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (25%) believe the budget will be `bad news' for people like them.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is set to announce the federal budget on March 29, and while few details have been given, it is expected to be one of austerity to combat the deficit. Just one in ten (9%) believe the budget will be `good news' for people like them, while four in ten (42%) think it will be neither good news nor bad news.

Given the choice between increased spending to stimulate the economy or spending cuts to slay the deficit, six in ten (58%) Canadians more closely believe that the `government should focus on spending less to tackle the deficit', while four in ten (42%) think the `government should focus on spending more to stimulate the economy'. Quebecers (70%) are the most likely to believe that spending cuts should take precedence, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%), British Columbia (59%), Alberta (55%), Ontario (52%) and Atlantic Canada (45%). A majority of Atlantic Canadians believe stimulus should take priority (55%), while a minority of Canadians in Ontario (48%), Alberta (45%), British Columbia (41%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (38%) and Quebec (30%) think so.

Closely mirroring the level of support the Tories received in the last election, four in ten (43%) Canadians `agree' (10% strongly/32% somewhat) that they `trust Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to make the right choices to ensure the next federal budget is fair and reasonable and in the best interests of Canadians'. Six in ten (57%) `disagree' (27% strongly/30% somewhat) with this assertion.

The data suggest that most Canadians might be willing to pay more taxes to keep social programs, and are willing to forgo tax cuts to maintain some services. Just three in ten (30%) `agree' (8% strongly/22% somewhat) that `we need to keep taxes down even if it means we have to sacrifice in terms of seniors' pensions and other social benefits', while most (70%) `disagree' (32% strongly/38% somewhat) that taxes must be kept low at the expense of these programs. Similarly, just three in ten (27%) `agree' (10% strongly/17% somewhat) that they `expect to pay lower taxes as a result of the next federal budget', while three quarters (73%) `disagree' (26% strongly/47% somewhat) that they're expecting a tax cut.

Canadians continue to value their social programs and want to find a way to pay for them without making any drastic changes. Only three in ten (30%) `agree' (7% strongly/23% somewhat) that `the social programs, seniors' pensions and other benefits in Canada are more generous than what we can afford to pay for', while most (70%) `disagree' (27% strongly/43% somewhat) that they are not affordable.

When the Conservatives announced that they would be phasing in a change to the age of eligibility for old-age security from 65 to 67, there was much public backlash against the move. Even now, two in three (68%) `disagree' (36% strongly/31% somewhat) that `given the financial pressures on Canada's public pension system, it is necessary to increase the retirement age from 65 to 67'. One in three (32%) `agree' (7% strongly/26% somewhat) that this change in the retirement age is necessary.

One big ticket item that has been a focus for the Conservative government is the military. Perhaps as a result of having withdrawn from an active combat role in Afghanistan, six in ten (60%) Canadians `agree' (26% strongly/34% somewhat) that Canada should cut back significantly on its military spending', while four in ten (40%) `disagree' (10% strongly/30% somewhat) that this is the proper course of action.

On the other hand, the environment has been a portfolio that critics have argued the Conservatives have neglected since being in office. It appears that many Canadians concur. Two in three (67%) `agree' (18% strongly/49% somewhat) that `this year's federal budget should focus more on environmental sustainability than in previous years'. Just one in three (33%) `disagree' (7% strongly/26% somewhat) that more focus should be spent on the environment than in previous years.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between February 13 and 20, 2012, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,012 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

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