HARRIS TORIES LEAD IN TIGHT CAMPAIGN

HARRIS TORIES LEAD IN TIGHT CAMPAIGN (45% PC, 41% LIBERAL, 12% NDP), BUT GRITS HAVE MOMENTUM AT THE BALLOT BOX

POLL SHOWS THAT WHILE TORIES NOW AHEAD, GRITS MAY GET BALLOT BOX BONUS AS THEIR VOTE TURNS OUT IN POLARIZED RACE, PCS LESS SO

CAMPAIGN TRENCH WARFARE FOR VOTE TURNOUT IN KEY BATTLE GROUNDS OF HAMILTON/NIAGARA, SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND GTA/416

WHILE HARRIS BEST CHOICE FOR PREMIER (49%), LEADER MCGUINTY (59%) SEEN AS 'UP TO THE JOB' IF LIBERAL GOVERNMENT FORMED

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone from May 10th to May 14th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 Ontarian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to the 1996 Census data. It has also been weighted according to past voting according to the 1995 election.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

One week into the election campaign and merely days away from the leader debate, the Ontario Tories lead in the polls, but more importantly, Liberal voters are more likely to be absolutely certain that they will vote on Election Day than are PC voters and NDP voters.

The poll shows the Harris Tories are ahead in a tight campaign with 45% of the decided vote compared to the Liberals (41%) and NDP (12%). However, while the Tories now lead, it is clear that the Grits may have the edge at the ballot box as their supporters are more likely to turn out to vote in hotly contested regions, particularly Hamilton/Niagara, Southwest Ontario and the GTA/416 than the PCs in this polarized race.

Mike Harris is still best choice for Premier (49%) over the other two leaders, however, six in ten (59%) Ontarians see McGuinty as being 'up to the job' if the Liberals are voted into power.

These are the highlights of the first Ontario 1999 Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail election campaign poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between May 10th and May 14th, 1999.

Harris Tories Lead in Tight Campaign

One week into the Ontario 1999 election campaign, the Tories (45%) lead the Liberals (41%). The NDP is mired at 12%, while 2% of decided voters support "some other party". Eight percent of Ontarians remain undecided.

• Respondents living in Eastern Ontario (48% PC, 42% Lib, 9% NDP) and the GTA (48% PC, 38% Lib, 12% NDP), more specifically the 905 area (61% PC, 30% Lib, 7% NDP) of the GTA, are most likely to support the Tories.
• Regionally, those living in Southwest (44% Lib, 45% PC, 10% NDP) and Northern (49% Lib, 25% PC, 22% NDP) Ontario are more likely to support the Liberals than those in other regions.
• As age, education and income increases the likelihood of voting for the PC Party increases. Men (51% versus 38% for women) are also more likely to support Mike Harris and the PCs. The opposite is true of the Liberal Party support, where women (47% versus 35% for men) are more likely to support Dalton McGuinty's Party.
• Analysis of voter retention rates (voters sticking with the same party choice they made in 1995) shows that the Liberals (82%) and the PCs (80%) are doing a good job of holding on to their previous voters, whereas the NDP (50%) loses half past support. These data clearly show the collapse in NDP support - 36% of '95 NDP voters are now with the Grits while 11% have opted for the Tories.

Certainty of Turning Out to Vote Favours the Grits, While Tory Voters are Most Certain of Which Party They Will Vote For

• Analysis shows that PC voters are the most certain about their present voting decision - 59% say they are "very certain" to vote PC, while only 50% of Liberal voters and 44% of NDP voters are totally committed to their party preference.
• While Tory voters are the most committed to their stated party preference they are the least likely to say they will show up on voting day - only 66% say they are "absolutely certain" to show up on voting day compared to 74% of Liberal supporters and 69% of NDP supporters. Clearly then, "getting out the vote" will be especially important for the Tories.
• Analysis of second choice support shows that the Tories have little opportunity to "pick the pockets" of the other two parties. Both the NDP (second choice Liberal; 63%) and Liberals (second choice NDP; 55%) are the favorite second choice of the other by a wide margin while Tory voters (second choice Liberal; 59%) with a second choice would overwhelmingly go to the Grits.
• Tory support has a much lower potential ceiling than that of the Liberals. Analysis of party "vote pools" (voters selecting a party as their first or second choice) shows that 57% of voters say they would vote PC as their first or second choice, compared to 77% who have the Grits in this category, and 39% who would consider the NDP as their first or second choice.

The Key Battle Grounds for the Back Half of the Campaign

While the Tories may lead in the vote, in certain areas of the province, the critical issue is whether they can get the vote out - especially in close-race regions. An analysis of vote choice at this stage in the campaign compared with actual intention to show up at the ballot box and vote reveals that the Tories have to get their vote out in some crucial regions if they are going to win. The analysis shows that in these closely contested regions it is the Liberals who have a higher proportion of voters who support them who intend to actually show up and vote at the ballot box.

Hamilton/Niagara

While the vote appears close in this region (38% PC, 37% Liberal, 22% NDP), the analysis indicates that 88% of Liberal decided voters intend to show up at the polls versus 67% of PC decided voters and 63% of NDP decided voters. This shows that again, while the vote on the surface appears close, Liberal decided voters have 21 point lead over Tory decided voters in terms of actually showing up on election day. As such, while the region appears close in decided vote, it is the Liberals who have a distinct edge at this time.

Southwest Ontario

While the vote appears to be close in this region (45% PC, 44% Liberal, 10% NDP), the analysis indicates that 73% of Liberal decided voters intend to show up at the polls versus 64% of PC decided voters and 67% of NDP decided voters. This shows that again, while the vote on the surface appears close, Liberal decided voters have 9 point lead over Tory decided voters in terms of actually showing up on election day. As such, while the region appears close in decided vote, it is the Liberals who have a distinct edge at this time.

GTA/416

While the vote appears to be close in this region (41% PC, 43% Liberal, 14% NDP), the analysis indicates that 74% of Liberal decided voters intend to show up at the polls versus 60% of PC decided voters and 14% of NDP decided voters. This shows that again, while the vote on the surface appears close, Liberal decided voters have 14 point lead over Tory decided voters in terms of actually showing up on election day. As such, while the region appears close in decided vote, it is the Liberals who have a distinct edge at this time.

Eastern Ontario

It would appear as though the Tories have the edge in Eastern Ontario. The current decided vote is 48% Tories (with 79% of their decided vote intending to turn out) versus 42% Liberals (with 76% of their decided vote intending to turn out). And, 9% support the NDP (with 64% of their decided vote intending to turn out). As such, the Tories have a 3-point lead over decided Liberal intended turnout vote. Because of the six-point lead they have in decided vote at this point in time, the Tories have the edge in Eastern Ontario.

Northern Ontario

The Liberals have a firm lead in Northern Ontario (49%) versus PC (25%) and NDP (22%). The analysis indicates that 68% of decided Liberal voters intend to show up at the polls versus 57% PC and 66% of NDP decided voters. This gives the Liberals a firm command of Northern Ontario.

GTA/905

The PCs have a commanding lead in the GTA/905 region with 61% of the decided vote (with 65% of decided PC voters intending to show up at the polls) versus 30% of the decided vote for the Liberals (with 62% of decided Liberal voters intending to show up at the polls). For the NDP, they have just 7% of the decided vote and 100% of their decided voters intend to show up at the polls.

Where the Key Battles will Take Place

The analysis indicates that the voter-trench warfare will take place in Hamilton/Niagara, the Southwest and the GTA/416. It would appear that the Liberals have a strong hold on Northern Ontario and the PCs have a commanding lead in the 905 region, and a modest hold in Eastern Ontario. It is clear that in the back half of this campaign the party to form the next government in Ontario will be the one that gets the vote out in a few crucial areas of the province.

Grits and NDP Tied for Campaign Momentum, but Grits have the Edge Because They Lead in Vote

Ontarians were asked to rate their impression of each of the Parties and their leaders. The momentum to gain ground in the lead up to the vote is calculated based on subtracting the proportion who say their impression has worsened from those who say their impression of the party and their leader has improved. Overall, for the PCs, voters say their impressions have improved (15%), worsened (29%) or stayed the same (55%). This calculates into a negative momentum factor (-14) for the Harris Tories. Overall, for the Liberals, voters say their impressions have improved (20%), worsened (15%) or stayed the same (61%). This means that the Liberals net a score of +5. For the NDP, voters say their impressions have improved (15%), worsened (10%) or stayed the same (68%). As such, the NDP have a net score of +5.

While the Liberals and the NDP are tied for momentum, it should be emphasized that because the NDP are mired at 12% of the vote, the Liberals have the edge because they are within striking distance of the leading Tories.

• The areas where the Tories momentum lags most include Hamilton/Niagara (-23), South West (-17) and Northern Ontario (-28). Negative momentum for the PCs is highest with women (-20) and low-income earners (-25).
• Liberals enjoy positive momentum figures in every region with the exception of 905 (-7). In particular, the Liberals have momentum in the Southwest (+8), Eastern (+13) and Hamilton/Niagara (+4). The NDP have the highest level of momentum in Northern Ontario (+20).

Mike Harris Would Make Best Premier

Nearly half of Ontarians (49%) believe Mike Harris would make the best Premier of Ontario given the choice between the three main party leaders. One third (32%) say Dalton McGuinty would be the best Premier of the three main party leaders. Howard Hampton is thought to be so by 12% of Ontarians.

• Mike Harris is most likely to be chosen as the best Premier by those living in the 905 area of the GTA, where two-thirds (65%) say he would be the best Premier.
• Dalton McGuinty (44%) is far more likely than Mike Harris (30%) to be thought of as the leader who would make the best Premier by low-income earners. More Ontarians Say McGuinty Would do A Good Job
• However, six in ten (59%) Ontarians believe Dalton McGuinty would do a good job as Premier if his party formed a government. By comparison, 56% believe thought Mike Harris would do a good job as Premier if the PCs were re-elected on June 3rd. Four in ten (42%) think that Hampton would do a good job if the NDP was elected.

Do the Harris Tories Deserve to be Re-elected?

Emphasizing the polarization of the potential vote, nearly half of Ontarians (47%) believe that "Mike Harris and the PCs deserve to be re-elected on June 3rd, 1999, while a slim majority (51%) say it is time that we switch to another Premier and Party to run Ontario's government.

• Those who believe Mike Harris and the PC Party deserves to be re-elected increases as age, education and income increase. Men (54%) are also more likely than women (40%) to support re-electing Harris and the PC Party.
• Regionally, Northern Ontarians (67%) are more likely to call for a new government than any other area in Ontario.

Have the Harris Tories Put the Province on The Right Track?

Despite a highly polarized race, six in ten (60%) believe the provincial government of Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives has Ontario on the right track. Respondents are evenly divided between feeling the PCs are "strongly on the right track" (29%) versus "somewhat on the right track" (31%). On the other end of the spectrum, 22% feel the PC government is "strongly on the wrong track", while another 16 percent say they are "somewhat on the wrong track". Previous tracking suggests concern about "pace of change" results in diminished PC support for this effort.

• Men (68%) are much more likely than women (53%) to suggest that the government is on the right track.
• Respondents who earn $30k or less (45%) are far less likely than other income categories (58% for $30k to $60k, 70% for those earning over $60k) to think that the government is leading Ontario in the right direction.

For further information, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900