Honeymoon Over For Ontario Provincial Liberals
It should be noted that Ipsos-Reid emphasized to respondents in each question that they were being asked their views about the Ontario Provincial political scene and the Ontario McGuinty government to ensure that any current views on federal liberal politics would not inadvertently influence respondents' opinions.
When asked to think back over the last few months about how the McGuinty provincial government has dealt with issues, six in ten (60%) Ontarians believe "the McGuinty government in Ontario is just managing issues day to day with no plan," compared with only one-third (34%) who feel "the McGuinty government in Ontario has a clear plan for the province."
Also, when asked whether they approve or disapprove of Premier Dalton McGuinty's performance, more Ontarians (46%) answer that they "disapprove" of Mr. McGuinty's performance than "approve" (43%), with a further 9% who "neither approve nor disapprove."
Finally, with the reported $5.6 billion provincial deficit in mind, six in ten (62%) Ontarians say the government can "run a deficit over the next few years as long as they pay it off and balance the books by then end of their term." One-third (34%) think the government should address the deficit by either "raising income taxes just enough to cover the deficit and maintain the services and programs we have"(20%), or "cut programs and services and do everything possible to get the deficit paid off as soon as possible"(14%).
And after considering the Provincial Liberal Government's campaign promise to uphold the Ontario's Tax Payers Protection Act that was enacted by the previous Conservative government and supported by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, half (49%) of Ontarians believe that the Liberal government should "be able to get rid of this legislation and do whatever it takes to fix the (deficit) problem, including raise taxes" while 43% believe that they "should follow the legislation, even if it means cutting programs and services, to do what needs to be done."
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ Globe and Mail/CFTO/CFRB conducted from April 6th to April 8th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a randomly selected sample of 770 adult Ontarians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 2001 Census data.
Ontario Provincial Grits Slide To 45% (Down 11 Points Since November)...
It would appear that the post-October election "honeymoon" enjoyed by the Ontario Liberal Party is over as this poll shows a slide in voter support dropping from 56% support among decided Ontario voters in November 2003, to 51% in December, and 45% now (representing a total drop of 11 points from November). The Progressive Conservative Party now trails in second place with 30% of decided voter support in Ontario (+3 points since November and static since December), followed by the New Democratic Party in third place with 19% of decided voter support (up a total of seven points from November, and up three points since December). The Ontario Green Party garners 5% of decided voter support in Ontario (unchanged from November but down 1 point since December), and 1% of decided voters who would vote for some "other party." Among all Ontarians, 6% would not vote or would be undecided if a provincial election were held tomorrow.
- Provincial Liberal support is highest in Eastern Ontario (50%), followed by Northern Ontario (48%), Southwestern Ontario (47%), the GTA (45%), and Central Ontario (38%).
- Provincial Progressive Conservative support is highest in Central Ontario (39%), followed by the GTA (32%), Eastern Ontario (27%), Southwest Ontario (23%), and Northern Ontario (21%).
- Provincial New Democratic Party support is highest in Southwest Ontario (28%), followed by Northern Ontario (26%), the GTA (16%), Central Ontario (15%), and Eastern Ontario (13%).
Six in ten (60%) Ontarians agree with the statement that "the McGuinty government in Ontario is just managing issues day to day with no plan," while one-third (34%) feel the statement "the McGuinty government in Ontario has a clear plan for the province." The remaining 6% of Ontarians "don't know."
- Residents of Central Ontario (66%) are the most inclined to think "the McGuinty government in Ontario is just managing issues day to day with no plan," followed by residents of the GTA (61%), Eastern Ontario (61%), Southwest Ontario (55%), and Northern Ontario (54%).
- Those Ontarians with annual household income levels of $30,000 or more are more likely than those with less annual household income to think the McGuinty government is just managing issues day to day with no plan (63% vs. 48%).
- Residents of Southwestern Ontario (38%) and Northern Ontario (38%) are the most likely to believe that Premier McGuinty has a clear plan for the province, followed by residents of the GTA (35%), Eastern Ontario (35%), and Central Ontario (29%).
When asked to think back over the last few months on how the McGuinty provincial government has dealt with issues, more (46%) Ontarians state that they "disapprove" of Premier McGuinty's performance than "approve" (43%), while 9% "neither approve nor disapprove." The remaining 2% of respondents "don't know."
When measuring the gap approval scores (that is subtracting the proportion who disapprove of Premier McGuinty's performance from the proportion who approve), Mr. McGuinty gets the highest net positive score in Eastern Ontario (+16), followed distantly by Northern Ontario (+8), and Southwest Ontario (+1), with the lowest scores in the GTA (-5), and Central Ontario (-18) where his performance is judged more negatively.
Six In Ten Ontarians (62%) Say Liberals Should Run A Deficit As Long As They Pay It Off And Balance Books By End of Term
After being reminded that the Ontario McGuinty Government has inherited a reported $5.6 billion deficit, Ontarians were asked which of a series of statements most reflects what they want the Ontario Finance Minister to do in his upcoming budget to deal with the deficit.
Six in ten (62%) Ontarians believe the government could "run a deficit over the next few years as long as they pay it off and balance the books by the end of their term," followed by 20% who feel the government should "raise income taxes just enough to cover the deficit and maintain the services and programs we have," and 14% who feel the government should "cut programs and services and do everything possible to get the deficit paid off as soon as possible." The remaining 3% of Ontarians "don't know."
- Support for running a deficit over the next few years is highest in Central Ontario (67%), followed by the GTA (64%), Northern Ontario (61%), Southwestern Ontario (60%), and Eastern Ontario (51%).
- Women are more likely than men to support running a deficit as long as they pay it off (66% vs. 57%), while men are more likely than women to believe the government should cut programs and services and get the deficit paid off as soon as possible (19% vs. 10%).
After being reminded that the Liberals pledged to uphold the Tax Payers Protection Act introduced by the previous Conservative government and supported by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, and that this Act prohibits the Ontario government from raising most taxes or running a deficit, half (49%) of Ontarians think the Liberal government should "be able to get rid of this legislation and do whatever it takes to fix the (deficit) problem, including raise taxes," while 43% believe the government "should follow the legislation even if it means cutting programs and services to do what needs to be done." The remaining 8% of Ontarians "don't know."
- Support for getting rid of the legislation is highest in the GTA (51%), followed closely by Southwestern Ontario (50%), Northern Ontario (48%), Central Ontario (47%), and finally Eastern Ontario (44%).
- Men are more likely than women to feel the government should follow the legislation (48% vs. 39%).
- Those with a University degree are more likely than others with to feel that the government should get rid of this legislation (58% vs. 44%).
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
