As House Resumes from Summer Break,
Party Support Locked in Holding Pattern

Toronto, ON- As Members of Parliament get back to work in Ottawa following the summer recess, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News has found that support for the major political parties is locked in a holding pattern, with the Liberals holding a 7-point lead over the Tories, unchanged from last month.

If an election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would support the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau (unchanged), while 31% would vote for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (unchanged). Nearly a quarter (23%) of Canadians would support the NDP and leader Thomas Mulcair (down 1 point), while 5% nationally (up 2 points) would support the Bloc under leader Mario Beaulieu (20% in Quebec, up 5 points). Other parties, including Elizabeth May's Green Party, would receive 3% of the vote (unchanged).

In the relatively vote-rich and competitive regions of the country that can often determine the outcome of the election, the data reveal the following:

• In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) hold a lead over the Conservatives (33%) and NDP (22%).
• In Quebec, the Liberals (36%) also lead the NDP (27%), Bloc Quebecois (20%), and the Conservatives (15%).
• In British Columbia, there is a tight three-way race between the Grits (33%), Tories (32%) and NDP (30%).

Impact of Party Leader on Vote Choice...

Ipsos undertook an experiment with its vote-choice questions, whereby half of the respondents were given the party leader's name alongside the party, and the other half were only given the party name. The goal was to measure the impact that the presence of the party leader's name has on vote choice for the three major parties. While there was some variation between the two sample sets, the differences are not statistically significant.

Directionally, though, the presence of Trudeau's name in the question appeared to hurt the party's fortunes (down 2 points), while the presence of Harper's name in the question appeared help the party's fortunes (up 2 points). The presence of Thomas Mulcair's name slightly hurt the NDP (down 1 point).

(Click to enlarge image)

Harper's Chances at Re-Election...

Examining the overall horserace figures alone suggest that the Prime Minister's job could be in jeopardy during the federal election in 2015, since the Liberals currently lead by 7 points. Further, only one in three (33%) say that the Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election (a figure that closely tracks with the percentage of vote the incumbent receives), up 1 point from February of this year, while two in three (67%) believe that `it is time for another federal party to take over', down 1 point.

However, experience has shown that one cannot jump to hasty conclusions based on these figures alone. At the start of the most recent Ontario election campaign, only 28% of Ontarians thought that Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals deserved re-election. By the end of the campaign, that proportion increased to 39%, and the Grits pulled off a majority-government victory.

Working in the Tory's favour is the fact that half (49%) of Canadians `approve' (11% strongly/38% somewhat) of the performance of the Conservative government under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, up 5 points since February. The desire for change stated above appears more superficial than a genuine disapproval of the government and its policies. The other half (51%) of Canadians `disapprove' (25% strongly/26% somewhat) of the government's performance under Prime Minister Harper.

But Trudeau Seen as Best Prime Minister...

Despite the relatively strong approval rating for the Prime Minister and his government, when asked who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada among the three major-party leaders, Justin Trudeau (42%, unchanged) continues to best Prime Minister Harper (35%, down 1 point), while Thomas Mulcair trails (24%, unchanged).

Harper, Trudeau Split Opinions on Key Issues of Economy, Foreign Policy, Vision, Values and Trust...

Reflecting on various traits and characteristics, Canadians were asked to determine which leader was best described by each of the following (and tracked back to April 2013) - in some cases Trudeau has the upper hand, and in others Harper has the advantage.

• Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (44%, up 1 points), Trudeau (31%, down 3 points), Mulcair (26%, up 3 points).
• Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: Trudeau (40%, down 3 points), Harper (35%, up 2 points), Mulcair (25%, up 2 points).
• Someone who's values best represent my own: Trudeau (38%, down 3 points), Harper (35%, down 2 points), Mulcair (27%, up 1point).
• Someone who you can trust: Trudeau (37%, down 5 points), Harper (33%, unchanged), Mulcair (30%, up 5 points).
• Someone who will get things done: Trudeau (38%, down 2 points), Harper (37%, up 2 points), Mulcair (25%, up 2 points).
• Someone who will best lead and represent Canada on the world stage: Harper (38%, up 2 points), Trudeau (38%, down 5 points), Mulcair (25%, up 4 points)
.
• Someone who is best to manage Canada's foreign policy (new question): Harper (42%), Trudeau (32%), Mulcair (26%).

On the last two points concerning foreign policy and relations, it is interesting to note that while Canadians appear to believe Harper would do a better job managing Canada's policies, they're split on whether he or Trudeau would be best to represent them on the world stage.

Interestingly, more Canadians believe that Canada's international reputation has worsened (37%) rather than improved (20%) since 2006, when Harper and the Conservatives took over in government. Four in ten (43%), however, believe there has been no change in how other countries view Canada.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 9th and 12th, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,605 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 509-8460
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit www.ipsos.ca

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.