John Tory (42%) Headed for Toronto Mayor's Chain of Office
Over Ford (31%), Chow (25%)

Toronto, ON - Heading into the final weekend of the Toronto mayoral campaign, John Tory appears to be headed for the mayor's chain of office, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News.

While there remain a few days left for voters to make up their minds and lock in their votes (13% remain undecided), if the election were held tomorrow, John Tory would receive the support of 42% of decided voters, well ahead of rivals Doug Ford (31%) and Olivia Chow (25%). Two percent (2%) of voters would choose some other candidate.

Compared to an Ipsos poll conducted in September for Global News, John Tory's support is down 6 points, while Doug Ford's is up 5 points and Olivia Chow's support remains stagnant (down 1 point). In short, the campaign didn't appear to have a very significant impact on Torontonians' voting intentions and the story is largely the same at the end of the campaign as it was at the start.

Tory Competitive In Every Region of City...

Key to John Tory's overall level of support is that he's competitive in every region of the city, ostensibly becoming the consensus candidate that can bridge the gap between the downtown/suburban divide:

• In the old City of Toronto/downtown, Tory (47%) holds a solid lead over Chow (35%) and Ford (16%).
• In North York, Tory (41%) is also ahead of Ford (33%) and Chow (23%).
• In York and East York, Tory (40%) leads Ford (31%) and Chow (26%).
• In Scarborough, the race is tighter with Ford (41%) and Tory (39%) in a close battle, while Chow (18%) trails.
• In Etobicoke, Tory (39%) and Ford (38%) are tied with Chow (21%) far behind.

The data also suggest that the older you are, the more likely you are to vote for front-runner Tory:

• Among those aged 55+ -- those most likely to show up and vote - Tory's lead (51%) over Ford (28%) and Chow (19%) is large.
• Among those aged 35 to 54, Tory (40%) also has a significant lead over Ford (33%) and Chow (25%).
• Only among those aged 18 to 34 - the least likely to vote - is the race close: Tory (33%), Ford (33%), Chow (32%).

John Tory is also the leading candidate among both men (44%) and women (40%).

Tory, Ford's Supporters Most Committed...

The data reveal that John Tory and Doug Ford's supporters are the most committed to their vote. Among those who indicate that they'll vote for John Tory, 67% are `absolutely certain' of their choice. A similar proportion of Doug Ford's supporters (68%) say they're `absolutely certain' of their choice. By comparison, only 51% of Olivia Chow's supporters say that they're absolutely certain about supporting her.

But Chow Emerges as Second-Choice Candidate...

Thinking about who they would vote for as their second-choice candidate, Olivia Chow (30%) emerges as the top choice, followed by John Tory (24%) and, finally, Doug Ford (10%). Two in ten (17%) say they'd vote for some other candidate, while 18% are unsure of whom they would vote for.

• Among Tory supporters, 52% would pick Olivia Chow as their second choice, while just 18% would choose Doug Ford.
• Among Ford supporters, 38% would choose John Tory as their second choice, while 25% would choose Chow.
• Among Chow supporters, Tory (49%) bests Ford (11%) as the second choice candidate by a long shot.

High Turnout Could Push Margin of Victory Larger...

If the turnout of the election is high, it could mean a larger margin of victory for John Tory. Ipsos polling shows that based on a high voter turnout for a municipal election of about 57%, those who say they are most committed to show up and vote would support the candidates in the following manner: John Tory (51%), Doug Ford (25%), Olivia Chow (22%), Other (2%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between October 21st and 23rd, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,201 Torontonians were interviewed, including a sample of 801 from online panel (Ipsos I-Say Panel) and non-panel sources, and a sample of 400 by live-interviewer telephone (including 120 cellphone interviews). Weighting was then employed to balance Canadian and voter demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Torontonian adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit www.ipsos.ca

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