LGBTQ2S+ Canadians Less Impressed with Trudeau Six Years In

Toronto, ON, September 15, 2021 — Recent Ipsos research shows that 11% of Canadians identify in a way that is not solely heterosexual, and 2% identify in a way other than male or female.[i] The last few years have seen greater visibility for LGBTQ2S+[ii] individuals in the political realm, as evidenced by the activities of the LGBTQ2 Secretariat in Canada and solid public support among Canadians for laws banning discrimination against LGBTQ2S+ individuals.[iii]  As the upcoming federal election approaches, this group of voters will be watching to see which party leader has their best interests in mind, and who they can trust to ensure the forward momentum gained is not lost.

A recent series of polls conducted on behalf of Global News sheds light on this voter group and shows us how this group will be voting as Canada approaches election day. While Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party received the majority vote in 2015, Trudeau is now facing significant challenges during this year’s election, causing some of his previous supporters to look around for a stronger option for the progressive vote.

Six years, a 2019 election in which Trudeau lost his majority government, and a global pandemic later, how are LGBTQ2S+ voters considering their political decisions and the future leadership of the country moving forward?

Trudeau: Candidate of Inclusivity in 2015, But Voting Block Could Be Slipping Away

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau campaigned heavily on inclusivity and equality in 2015, promising what would be a marked shift from the Harper government. Ipsos exit poll data from election day in 2015 showed overwhelming support for Trudeau among those who identified as LGBTQ2S+. They were significantly more likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to agree that:

• Justin Trudeau understood their problems and concerns (44% compared to 30% of non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians),
• He was inspirational (51% LGBTQ2S+ compared to 37% non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians), and
• He made them think the country would be in good hands (46%, compared to 33% non-LGBTQ2S+).

Trudeau’s subsequent participation in Pride festivities and formal apologies made to the LGBTQ2S+ community during his time as Prime Minister have boosted his visibility as a candidate that will speak on behalf of this group on the national and international stage.

Criminalizing conversion therapy practices in Canada and ending the discriminatory ban of men and transgender women who have sex with men from donating blood were major campaign pillars for the Liberals. However, neither was achieved during their six-year tenure. It is perhaps unsurprising that LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are significantly less likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to feel that Trudeau is someone who will keep his election promises (15% compared to 22% non-LGBTQ2S+), gives them hope about the future (18%, compared to 26% non-LGBTQ2S+), and who wants to lead for the right reasons (19%, compared to 27% non-LGBTQ2S+). It is important to note that there may also be a host of other issues concerning these Canadians that do not necessarily relate to LGBTQ2S+ issues.

Despite this, approval for the Trudeau government among LGBTQ2S+ Canadians is significantly higher (53%) than among non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians (46%), as is approval of the federal government’s handling of the economy (65% LGBTQ2S+, compared to 52% non-LGBTQ2S+), suggesting that LGBTQ2S+ Canadians would still be satisfied with a continuation of the Trudeau government after election day. But will this support for the status quo be enough to garner their votes?

LGBTQ2S+ Voters Most Likely to Support NDP or Liberals, Solidly Opposing Conservatives

If an election were held tomorrow, LGBTQ2S+ Canadians intend to align themselves with the NDP (36%) or the Liberals (32%). They are significantly less likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to vote Conservative (16% LGBTQ2S+ Canadians will vote Conservative, compared to 34% non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians). Consistent with the overall population, support among LGBTQ2S+ Canadians for the Green party (8%), Bloc Quebecois (7%), and People’s Party of Canada (1%) is much lower, though LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are significantly more likely to intend to vote Green (compared to 3% non-LGBTQ2S+). This group is also significantly less likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to be undecided in their vote choice (9%, compared to 14% non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians).

When it comes to the top issues most important to LGBTQ2S+ Canadians in determining how they will vote, many of their top issues are consistent with non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians (such as health care, climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and affordability and cost of living). However, they are significantly more likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to prioritize poverty and social inequality (26%, compared to 13% non-LGBTQ2S+), education (18%, compared to 9% non-LGBTQ2S+), and indigenous issues (16%, compared to 8% non-LGBTQ2S+). It should be noted that LGBTQ2S+ Canadians’ experiences with the health care system, the pandemic, and cost of living may be directly associated with marginalization resulting from social inequality and discrimination, underscoring their importance to this group.

The NDP’s consistent, declared support of LGBTQ2S+ issues, and Singh’s continued recognition of the community, has perhaps made this group feel more confident that he would be the best candidate to represent them at a national level. When it comes to dealing with poverty and social inequality as well as indigenous issues, the NDP is directionally the most favoured party for the job among LGBTQ2S+ Canadians, well above the Liberals and Conservatives. LGBTQ2S+ Canadians also feel the NDP has the best plan for the country’s post-COVID future (31%) compared to the Liberals (24%), Conservatives (8%), Greens (5%), Bloc (3%), or the People’s Party of Canada (<1%). These topics have typically been areas in which the Conservatives poll much weaker in the eyes of Canadians.

When asked how certain they are of whether they would or would not vote Conservative, LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are significantly more likely to say they are certain they would not vote Conservative (57% certain they will not, compared to 37% non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians). Conversely, absolute certainty to vote for the NDP was significantly higher among LGBTQ2S+ Canadians (23%) than non-LGBTQ2s+ Canadians (6%), though certainty to vote for the Liberal party was on par with non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians (16% LGBTQ2S+ vs.19% non-LGBTQ2S+).

Singh and NDP Most Favoured by LGBTQ2S+ Canadians

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, LGBTQ2S+ Canadians strongly support Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (46%, compared to 24% non-LGBTQ2S+), while just 11% support Erin O’Toole of the Conservatives (compared to 30% non-LGBTQ2S+). Support for Trudeau’s continued leadership is just under one third among this group (30%), significantly lower than for non-LGBTQ2S+ (39%), driven by their belief in Singh.

In terms of leadership traits, Singh leads by a significant margin among members of the LGBTQ2S+ community on positive traits such as:

• Protecting the interests of cultural, religious, and other minorities in Canada (52%),
• Fighting for the middle class (46%),
• Providing open, responsible, and ethical government (45%), and, most notably,
• Having views that best represent their own (44%).

While Singh has been a favourite leader among Canadians overall over the course of the election campaign,[iv] LGBTQ2S+ Canadians' trust in him cannot be denied. By contrast, trust in O’Toole is markedly low; for example, LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are not confident that he is someone they can trust (7%), is someone who will provide an ethical government (7%), or is someone who will represent the interests of minorities in Canada (6%).

Despite Support for NDP, Liberals May Still Be Safest Choice on Election Day

The discrepancy between stated vote intention being more evenly split between NDP and Liberal and strong support for the NDP and Jagmeet Singh may be attributed to LGBTQ2S+ Canadians’ low likelihood of supporting the Conservative party. LGBTQ2S+ Canadians may feel that voting strategically may be more important so as not to split the progressive vote. In fact, LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are significantly more likely than non-LGBTQ2S+ Canadians to say they will vote for a candidate that they think could win, but is not their first choice (35%, compared to 24% non-LGBTQ2S+).

As the election draws near, it remains to be seen whether LGBTQ2S+ Canadians will stick with a Liberal government, or whether it may be time for a new progressive candidate to stand for them.

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 13 and September 6, 2021 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 6,502 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 6,002 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. From this sample, n = 545 respondents identified as LGBTQ2S+, and these respondents are the focus of this factum.

The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all LGBTQ2S+ Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Meghan Miller
Account Manager, Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

 

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[i] https://www.ipsos.com/en/lgbt-pride-2021-global-survey-points-generation-gap-around-gender-identity-and-sexual-attraction

[ii] LGBTQ2S+ is the acronym used to describe people who are Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, Questioning, Two-Spirit, and/or other sexual or gender identities.

[iii] https://www.ipsos.com/en/lgbt-pride-2021-global-survey-points-generation-gap-around-gender-identity-and-sexual-attraction

[iv] https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/trudeau-best-choice-for-prime-minister-say-canadians-but-lead-over-shrinking-fast