Liberal Lead Over Conservatives Grows to 8 Points
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (44%, +4 pts vs. December 2025) would have a larger lead over the Conservatives (36%, -1 pt vs. December) than they did on Election Day last year. Still lagging behind is the NDP (8%, -1 pt). The Bloc Québécois would garner 7% (-2 pts) of the national vote, 31% in Quebec, while the Green party would receive 3% (+1 pts) and the PPC 1% (-1 pt). Support for the Conservatives is highest in Alberta (49%) as well as among men (41%), while those 55+ (53%) and those living in Atlantic Canada (57%) are more likely to lean Liberal. The Liberals maintain a lead in Ontario (46% Liberal vs. 41% Conservative).
Canadians remain split as to whether the country should have another federal election in 2026 (37%, -3 pts vs. December 2025) or not (44%, +6 pts), though the proportion of Canadians who don’t want a 2026 election has grown since December. One in five (19%) don’t know one way or another.
Those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), those aged 18-34 (47%), and Conservative voters (67%), and men (42%) are the most likely to say Canada should have an election in 2026. Notably, desire for an election among Albertans has fallen compared to in December (40% vs. 52% in December 2025). Less than one-fifth (18%) of Liberals want another election.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 25 and 26, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001A
[email protected]
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