Liberals (34%) and Conservatives (33%) Tied Nationally as Battleground Ontario Shows Dead Heat at 37%

Toronto, ON - Support for the federal Liberals and Conservatives has tightened yet again as an election year draws near, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News. The poll of 8,268 Canadians (6,502 decided voters) was conducted over the last three weeks and shows that the race for the Prime Minister's Office is well underway, with tight races in key battleground provinces across the country.

The fall session of Parliament has seen Canada engage in an air-strike combat mission in Syria, two soldiers fall victim to attacks on Canadian soil, oil prices drop drastically, cabinet ministers resist calls to resign amidst new scandals, and spending announcements among other major news - all culminating in a roller-coaster ride that will likely be characteristic of the next nine months heading into Election Day.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau would receive 34% of the decided vote (down 4 points since September), while the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 33% of the vote (up 2 points). What was a seven-point lead for the Grits prior to the fall session of Parliament has eroded into a one-point lead, a statistical tie.

The NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 24% of the vote (up 1 point), while the Bloc under Mario Beaulieu would receive 5% nationally (21% in Quebec). Other parties, including Elizabeth May's Green Party, would receive 4% of the vote (up 1 point). Fifteen percent of Canadians (15%) remain undecided.

Tracking the data over the last three weeks suggests that either of the two leading parties could be poised to jump out in front, with the Liberals leading marginally in two of the last three weeks, and the Tories leading in one - the most recent. All fluctuations over the last three weeks are within the credibility interval of the poll, however, and so the overall trend of a statistical tie holds across all three weeks.

• November 10 to 17: Liberals (34%), Conservatives (33%), NDP (25%), BQ (4%), Other (4%).
• November 17 to 24: Liberals (35%), Conservatives (32%), NDP (24%), BQ (5%), Other (3%).
• November 24 to Dec 1: Conservatives (35%), Liberals (33%), NDP (22%), BQ (5%), Other (5%).

Tight Races in Key Battlegrounds...

The large sample size of the poll allows for an examination of the vote within each of the provinces with greater statistical accuracy than a typical national poll of 1,000 respondents. The data show extremely tight races in many key battleground areas of the country (unweighted sample sizes for each subset of decided voters shown in brackets):

• In seat-rich Ontario (N=2982), the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (37%) are in a dead heat, with the NDP (22%) and other parties (4%) further behind.
• Within the 416 region of the GTA (N=571), specifically, the Liberals (46%) are far in front of the NDP (26%) and Conservatives (25%) who are jockeying for a distant second, while few (3%) support other parties.
• In the surrounding 905 region of the GTA (N=641), where past elections have been won and lost, the Conservatives (41%) hold a slight advantage over the Liberals (37%), while the NDP (20%) and other parties (2%) appear outside contention.
• In Quebec (N=2150), the Liberals (32%) have a slight lead over the NDP (29%), while the Bloc (21%), Conservatives (15%) and others (3%) are well behind.
• In British Columbia (N=990), a three-way race shows the Tories (33%), NDP (30%) and Liberals (28%) all within striking distance, while other parties (8%) trail.
• In Alberta (N=746), the Conservatives (58%), as expected, have a solid lead over the Liberals (24%), NDP (14%) and other parties (3%).
• In Saskatchewan (N=266), the Conservatives (36%) hold a slim lead over the Liberals (32%), with the NDP behind (26%) and a fraction (6%) supporting other parties.
• In Manitoba (N=426), the Tories (44%) enjoy a double-digit lead over the Liberals (33%), with the NDP (20%) and other parties (3%) far behind.
• In Nova Scotia (N=331), a majority (56%) of decided voters would support the Liberals, who have a daunting lead over the Conservatives (24%), NDP (18%), and other (1%) parties.
• In New Brunswick (N=237), the Liberals (46%) are way out in front of the Tories (29%), NDP (19%), and other (5%) parties.
• In Newfoundland and Labrador (N=99, *small sample size), decided voters are three times as likely to support the Liberals (59%) than the Conservatives (20%) or NDP (19%), while handfuls would support other (3%) parties.
• In Prince Edward Island (N=41, *very small sample size), the Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (38%) sit neck-and-neck, ahead of the NDP (22%).

The data also show a tight battle among many other demographic constituencies:

• Among men (N=2814), the Tories (36%) and Liberals (35%) are statistically tied, ahead of the NDP (21%), Bloc (4%) and other parties (4%).
• Among women (N=3688), the Liberals (34%) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (30%), NDP (27%), Bloc (5%) and other parties (4%).
• Among those aged 55+ (N=2853), the Tories (39%) enjoy their traditional advantage over the Liberals (32%), NDP (22%), Bloc (3%) and other parties (4%).
• Among those aged 35 to 54 (N=2199), the Liberals (35%) and Conservatives (33%) are in a tight battle, with the NDP (22%), Bloc (5%) and other parties (4%) trailing.
• Among those aged 18 to 34 (N=1450), the Liberals (37%) and NDP (28%) have more support than the Conservatives (24%), while the Bloc (7%) and other parties (3%) lag.

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These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 10 and December 1, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 8,268 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ 1.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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