LIBERALS FALL IN POLLS AS ONTARIO TORIES TAKE LEAD 43% to 38%

LIBERALS FALL IN POLLS AS ONTARIO TORIES TAKE LEAD 43% to 38%

BUT, HEALTHCARE DOMINATES ISSUE AGENDA AS STUNNING 72% SAY MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR ATTENTION - HIGHEST ISSUE % EVER TALLIED DURING ANGUS REID'S 20 YEARS OF POLLING

TORY DISAPPROVAL ON HEALTHCARE CLIMBS TO 60%, AND "RIGHT TRACK" DIPS, BUT OVERALL APPROVAL, DESERVE RE-ELECTION, REMAINS CONSTANT

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone from February 5th to the 9th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 Ontarian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Into the election window of 1999 the Ontario Tories take the lead as the Liberals fall slightly in the polls - 43% versus 38%. The provincial agenda for Ontarians is clear. Healthcare dominates the issues agenda as a stunning 72% say it is the most important issue facing Ontario's leaders. In fact, this is the highest issue percentage of concern ever tallied during the past 20 years of Angus Reid polling in any national, provincial or municipal jurisdiction. More generally, disapproval for Tory handling of the healthcare system climbs to 60%, those who feel the government is on the "right track" dips to 57% and support for Harris government deserving re-election remains constant (47%).

These are some of the highlights of an Angus Reid Poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between February 5th and 9th, 1999.

Liberals Fall in Polls as Ontario Tories Take the Lead - 43% versus 38%

For the first time since June 1998, the space between the provincial Liberals and the Provincial Progressive Conservatives has widened to a 5-point lead for the Conservatives. The provincial Tories, gaining 2 points since December 1998, sit at 43% of decided voters. Dropping 3 percentage points since December 1998, the provincial Liberals have 38% of the decided vote. Remaining steady at a fairly distant third is Howard Hampton and the NDP with 14% support (up 1 point since December 1998). The remaining decided voters (5%) would vote for "some other party," and the undecided vote currently sits at 11%. (Table 1)

• Ontarians over the age of 55 years (53%), men (52%) and those with an income over $60k (48%) are more likely to cast a vote for the Conservatives than other subgroupings.
• Women (45%), 18 to 34 year olds (42%) are more likely to vote Liberal if a provincial election were held today.

Healthcare (72%) Dominates Issues Agenda

Jumping another 11 points since December 1998, 72% of Ontarians believe that healthcare is the most important issue facing Ontario's leaders today. This is the highest level of concern shown for any particular provincial issue ever in Angus Reid's 20 years of polling. Other mentions include concern about education (47%), jobs (19%), poverty (16%), taxes (9%), deficit (6%) and the economy in general (5%). (Table 2)

• Healthcare is of highest concern to those who are 55 or older (80%), the university educated (78%) and those earning over $60,000 (76%).

Overall Approval at 60%

Despite the acute concern and disapproval of the government's handling of healthcare, up two percentage points since October of 1998, six in ten (60%) Ontarians say they approve of the overall performance of the provincial Progressive Conservative government - one in four (26%) "strongly approve", while one in three (34%) "moderately approve". Four in ten (38%), on the other hand, say they disapprove of the PC's performance. One in four (24%) "strongly disapprove" and another 14 percent "somewhat disapprove". (Table 4)

• Most likely to approve of the provincial government's overall performance are Ontarians with some post secondary education (69%), and men (67%).
• Disapproval is highest among university graduates (52%) and women (44%).

" Right Track" Dips Four Points to 58%

While a majority (58%) still believe the provincial government of Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives has Ontario on the right track, this figure is down four points from the 62 percent reported in the Angus Reid Group's December sounding. Respondents are fairly evenly divided between feeling the PCs are "strongly on the right track" (27%) versus "somewhat on the right track" (30%). On the other end of the spectrum, one in four (26%) feel the PC government is "strongly on the wrong track", while another 14 percent say they are "somewhat on the wrong track". (Table 5)

• Ontarians aged 18 to 34 are slightly less likely than other age groups to feel the provincial PCs are on the right track (55% versus 59%).
• Men (68%) are much more likely than women (48%) to suggest that the government is on the right track.
• Respondents who earn $30k or less (52%) are less likely than other income categories to think that the government is leading Ontario in the right direction.
• University graduates (47%) are less likely than those with lower levels of education to suggest the provincial government is on the right track.

Disapproval on Health Care Rises to 60% -- Disapproval on Education Not Far Behind at 55%

Up from 55 percent in December of 1998, fully six in ten (60%) Ontarians disapprove of the job the Ontario government has been doing in terms of preserving our system of health care. In fact, four in ten (40%) "strongly disapprove" (another 20% "somewhat disapprove"). Approval on health care has undergone a corresponding decline of five points since our last sounding and sits now at 40 percent (11% strongly approve, 29% somewhat). (Table 3)

• Disapproval on health care is highest among Ontarians aged 35 to 54 (63%), university graduates (70%) and women (67%).
• The highest approval ratings are reported by Ontarians aged 55 and older (44%), those without any post secondary education (45%), men (47%) and the least affluent (44%).

Disapproval on the Ontario government's efforts at managing the education system has also increased since December of last year and sits now at 55 percent (up from 49%). One in five (19%) "somewhat disapprove", while more than one in three (36%) "strongly disapprove". Approval is expressed by 44 percent of Ontarians - 14 percent "strongly approve" and 30 percent "somewhat approve".

• Disapproval on managing the education system is highest among Ontarians aged 18 to 34 (59%), university graduates (67%), and women (62%).
• Most likely to approve of the government's job at managing our education system are those aged 55 and older (51%), and men (52%).

Ontarians Split on Whether or Not It's Time for Another Party to Take Over

One in two (49%) Ontarians say the Harris government has done all it can do and it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province (down one point from 50% in October of 1998). Virtually the same number (47%) say the Harris government has accomplished a lot of good in the province - they have stayed true to their word and deserve to be re-elected (unchanged since October). (Table 6)

• Most likely to say it's time for another party are women (59%), the least affluent (57%), and those a university education (56%).
• Ontarians aged 55 and older (51%), those with some post secondary education (55%), men (58%), and the most affluent (54%) are most likely to say the Harris government deserves to be re-elected.

For further information, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900