Liberals Flirt With Minority Status
As previously indicated in recent public opinion soundings by Ipsos-Reid, the dynamic for the outcome of this expected federal election remains fluid and particularly dynamic in various regions of the country. Clearly, how the parties campaign and which issue eventually arises to become the key "ballot question" will ultimately decide this particular national consultation.
In an exclusive seat projection model provided to CTV and The Globe and Mail, the new political numbers translate into a slim majority government if a vote were held today, the Liberals would have a potential of 158-162 seats, the Conservatives would have a potential of 66-70 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 17-21 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 59-63 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.
The latest Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV survey shows Liberal support at 35% among decided voters, down 4 points from 39% since Ipsos-Reid's last sounding from May 11th-17th. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party is holding its vote nationally at 26% (unchanged), and the NDP is up slightly to 18% (up 3 points). The Bloc Quebecois continue to dominate the federal landscape in Quebec with 50% support (up 2 points) leading the Liberals (28%, unchanged) by an impressive 22 point margin. Support for the Green Party is steady at 5%, and 4% of decided voters would vote for some "other " party. Among all Canadians, 14% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held tomorrow (up 7 points).
Within the different regions of Canada voter volatility continues, especially west of the Quebec border:
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (31%, unchanged) are in a dead heat with the Liberals (28%, down 5 points), with the NDP (20%) a close third. The Green Party trails with the support of 14% of decided voters.
In Alberta, the Conservatives have a commanding lead with 54% of decided voters' support (up 4 points), leading the Liberals (25%) by what looks like an insurmountable margin of 29 points. The NDP is a distant third with 15% of decided voter support.
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives have moved into the lead with 40% of decided voter support (up 7 points) --the Liberals (32%, - 6 points) trail by 8 points. The NDP (24%) is up 4 points.
In Ontario, the Liberal's lead has weakened as they now garner the support of 42% of decided voters (down 7 points), compared to the Conservatives who hold steady at 28% of decided voter support (up 1 point), and the NDP who have climbed 5 points to 22% support among decided voters.
In Quebec, a 22 point chasm separates the Bloc Quebecois (50%, up 2 points) from the Liberals (28%, unchanged). The Conservatives (7%) and the NDP (8%) have almost dropped off the electoral radar screen in this province.
In Atlantic Canada the Liberals hold a commanding lead with 50% of the decided vote (up 1 point), the NDP are second with 24% (up 5 points), and the Conservatives are third with 21% (down 8 points). For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2197
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between May 18th and 20th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, Ph.D
President & C.O.O
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
