Liberals Hold Narrow Lead Over Conservatives as 2025 Closes
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (40%, -3 pts vs. September 2025) would hold a three-point lead over the Conservatives (37%, -2 pts vs. September), the same-sized lead as the Liberals held on election night in April. Still lagging behind is the NDP (9%, +2 pts). The Bloc Québécois would garner 9% (+2 pts) of the national vote, swelling to 39% in Quebec, while the Green party would garner 2% (+1 pts) and the PPC 2% (no change). Older Canadians age 55+ are more likely to say they’d vote Liberal (47%), while younger Canadians are now equally as likely as other age groups to vote Conservative.
With Parliament still in a minority-government situation, Canadians are split as to whether the country should have another federal election in 2026 (40%) or not (38%), with 22% saying they don’t know one way or another. Those in Alberta (52%), those aged 18-34 (54%), and Conservative voters (71%) are the most likely to say Canada should go back to the ballot box in 2026.
Approval of the Liberal government under Mark Carney sits at 55%, just slightly behind where it was soon after Trudeau’s majority victory in 2015. Liberal voters remain highly approving of Carney’s performance (91%) compared to Conservatives (27%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between December 8 and 15, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,502 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
“Game Changers” – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
