Liberals Move Into Solid Majority Territory But Voters Still VolatileLiberals (40%), Conservatives (24%), NDP (15%), Bloc (46% In Quebec), Green (5%)
The polling was conducted during a week which witnessed the RCMP laying charges against two central figures associated with the sponsorship scandal, the announcements of the Conservative and NDP platforms on healthcare, a stepped up series of announcements by government ministers on various issues, and a widely covered visit by Irish rock star and international activist Bono with Prime Minister Paul Martin.
The seat range projection model indicates that since the last sounding the federal Liberals have moved from the potential of 160-164 seats to a potential of 171-175 seats while the Conservatives have dropped from a potential of 66-70 seats to a potential of 56-60 seats if a vote were held today. Also sliding downward is the NDP which has slipped from a potential of 18-22 seats to a potential of 17-21 seats. In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has slipped to a potential of 54-58 seats from a potential of 56-60 seats. For a majority government at least 155 seats must be won.
As noted above, while the Liberals hold 40% of the decided vote, the Conservatives now garner 24% of decided voter support (down 2 points), with the NDP attracting 15% support (down 1 point). In voter volatile Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have posted a substantial lead of 15 points over the Liberals with 46% support (up 5 points) versus 31% for the Liberals (down 5 points). Meanwhile, 5% of Canadians would cast their vote for the Green Party and 4% would vote for some "other" party. Among all Canadians, a total of 12% are undecided or don't know who they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.
With a potential election call within the next ten days, it would appear that voters in many regions of the country remain volatile, and despite the current seat projection model that shows more comfortable majority territory for the governing Liberals, the likely outcome from an election campaign of either a majority or minority government remains fluid.
In Ontario, vote support for both the Conservatives (26%, no change) and the Liberals (49%, up 1 point) has changed little, while NDP support has dropped 4 points to 16%, and the Green Party trails distantly with approximately one in twenty votes.
The Bloc Quebecois (46%, up 5 points) has widened its lead in Quebec to 15 points over the Liberals (31%, down 5 points), as the Conservatives and the NDP remain static with approximately one in ten voters' support in the province.
In Atlantic Canada the Liberals hold the lead with 48% of the vote (down 6 points from 54%) while the Conservatives have gained 9 points from 19% to 28% today. The NDP are within range of the Conservatives with approximately 1 in 5 voters.
Conservative support in British Columbia has dropped to 23% (down 11 points) and has been overtaken by both Liberal support -- which has risen 15 points to 37% support -- and NDP support -- up 7 points to almost three in ten voters' support. Currently, the Green Party garners the support of approximately one in ten decided voters in British Columbia.
In Alberta the Conservatives have remained static at 51% support (down 1 point), and the Liberals have risen 8 points from 21% to 29% support today. The NDP currently has approximately one in ten decided votes in Alberta with the Green Party garnering the support of approximately one in twenty-five.
The Conservatives have lost support in Saskatchewan/Manitoba dropping 6 points from 37% to 31% as Liberal support has not changed at 37% support. The NDP has gained 8 points in the polls and currently has the support of approximately one-quarter of voters in Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:
Explanation of seat model These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between May 7th and 13th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President & C.O.O
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
