Liberals Stalled At 38%, With Conservatives At 26%, NDP 17%, Bloc 12%, Green Party 4%

Toronto, ONT - According to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, the governing Liberal Party appears stalled in it's attempt to climb back into favour with voters, this in spite of the Prime Minister firing the heads of Crown Agencies and his well-publicized proclamation to get to the bottom of a sponsorship scandal which has rocked the government.

In a poll released January 15, 2004, the Liberals were at 48%. In the ensuing month they dropped as far down as 35%, and then stabilized at 36%. This poll shows that the Liberals (38%) are up two points from that last sounding. But the real story is in the regions, where the party is under fierce attack.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 31% -- poised to make major in-roads in this Grit bastion; in Quebec, the Bloc leads by 18 points over the Liberals who only two months ago were in the lead; in Alberta, the Conservatives now stand at 57%, dwarfing the Liberals at 24%; in British Columbia the Liberals are locked in a three-way fight; the same can be said for Saskatchewan/Manitoba; and in Atlantic Canada, perhaps the only basin of good fortune, the Liberals lead by 18 points over nearest rivals the Conservative Party.

Perhaps the only solace in a battered voter landscape that the Grits can find is in the approval ratings of the Prime Minister - the first that we have taken since he became Prime Minister in December 2003 - where he is at 57% approval vs. 34% disapproval. The Prime Minister receives majority of approval in every province and region of the country - the highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between March 2nd and March 7th 2004. The questions are based on a randomly selected sample of 2111 adult Canadians during this time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 177 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Grit Fortunes Mired In The Regions As Minority Evident

If a federal election were held tomorrow, four in ten decided voters (38%) would vote for the Liberal Party, one quarter (26%) would vote for the Conservative Party, and 17% would vote for the NDP. Further, the Bloc Quebecois would get 12% of the federal vote nationally (49% in Quebec), the Green Party would garner 4% of the vote, and 2% would go to some "other party." Overall, 16% of Canadians say they would not vote, don't know who they would vote for, or refused to say who they would vote for.

• Tracking since the last Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between February 17th and February 19th, 2004: The Liberals (38%) have risen 2 points from 36%; The Conservatives (26%) are down 1 point from 27%; The NDP (17%) is unchanged; The Bloc (12%) are up 1 point nationally from 11%, but up 5 points in Quebec (49%, up from 44%), The Green Party (4%) has not changed.

• The Liberals have come back in Atlantic Canada (49%, up 10 points from 39%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%, up 7 points from 29%), and British Columbia (33%, up 7 points from 26%); they have remained stable in Ontario (47%) and Quebec (31%) - both up 1 point; and have lost in Alberta (24%, down 4 points from 28%).

• The Conservatives have gained in Alberta (57%, up 10 points from 47%), but have remained stable elsewhere: Ontario (31%, up 2 points from 29%), Quebec (6%, down 4 points), Atlantic Canada (31%, down 5 points from 36%), British Columbia (27%, down 6 points from 33%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%, down 7 points from 31%).

• The NDP has remained essentially unchanged in every region.

Despite Stalled Vote, Prime Minister Paul Martin's Approval Ratings At 57%

When thinking about the performance of Prime Minister Paul Martin, six in ten (57%) Canadians say they approve (44% somewhat approve, 14% strongly approve). One third (34%) disapprove of Paul Martin's performance, 20% somewhat disapproving, 15% strongly disapproving. The remaining (8%) say they don't know.

• Those age 55+ are significantly more likely than all others to approve of Paul Martin's performance (63% vs. 55% of those under 55).

• University graduates are significantly more likely than those with lesser levels of education to approve the Prime Minister's performance (64% vs. 55% of those with some post-secondary or college diploma, 53% of those with a high school education, 51% of those with less than a high school education).

• Canadians with a household income level higher than $60,000 are significantly more likely than all others to approve of the Prime Minister's performance (62% vs. 57% of those with $30,000 to less than $60,000, and 53% of those with less than $30,000).

• Approval ratings by region: Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%), Atlantic Canada (60%), Ontario (59%), British Columbia (55%), Quebec (55%), Alberta (54%).

  Please open the attached PDF to view the press release and detailed tables.

  -30-
  
  For more information on this news release, please contact:
  
  Darrell Bricker
  President and C.O.O
  Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
  (416) 324-2900