Liberals Take Lead for First Time Since 2021

After nearly four years of Conservative dominance in the polls, the Liberal Party of Canada has taken a two-point lead among decided voters, overturning a 26-point deficit from just six weeks ago. Support for the Bloc Québécois has declined (-3 points), while the NDP vote continues to collapse (-4 points), further strengthening the Liberals. The Conservatives (-5 points) are facing headwinds from rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal Party’s new leadership.

A strong majority (86%) of Canadians believe an immediate federal election is necessary to establish strong leadership and a clear mandate to address President Trump’s tariff threat—an urgency that has grown since January (+9 points). Nearly half (48%) of Canadians strongly support holding an election immediately.
Support for an immediate election is highest among Conservative voters (96%), followed by NDP voters (82%) and Liberal voters (74%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 21 and 24, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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