Limited and Declining Support for Separation in Alberta
Calgary, AB June 5, 2026 – A new Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News shows there is a low and declining appetite for separation in Alberta. The poll also shows that Albertans who want to stay in Canada are more certain of their choice than those who are considering a vote for separation.
Only two-in-ten Albertans plan to vote in favour of holding a future separation vote in the October 19th referendum
Alberta separatists have a huge hill to climb if they want to get majority support in the October Alberta referendum. Currently, only two-in-ten (19%) Albertans say they would vote for the option to hold a future binding referendum on separation, i.e. “the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada”.
More than seven-in-ten (72%) Albertans currently support the referendum option to stay in Canada, i.e. “Alberta should remain a province in Canada”. Ten percent of Albertans are undecided, will not vote or prefer not to answer.
By region, support for moving ahead with a binding separation referendum is lowest in Calgary (14%), slightly higher in Edmonton (18%) and highest in the rest of Alberta (27%).
By current party vote preference, UCP supporters have a narrow preference to stay in Canada (50%) versus hold a binding separation referendum (40%). NDP voters overwhelmingly prefer to stay (92% vs. 5% hold a binding separation referendum). Undecided party voters also strongly prefer the stay option (74% vs. 9% hold a binding separation referendum).
By age, support for moving ahead with a binding separation referendum is higher among those under the age of 55 years (22%) than among those 55 years of age or older (14%).
A similar two-in-ten Albertans say they would vote to separate from Canada if a future binding referendum is held on the question
Only 18% of residents say they would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada if a future binding referendum is held on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada. Most (72%) Albertans say they would vote for Alberta to stay in Canada. One-in-ten (9%) Albertans are undecided, will not vote or prefer not to answer.
By region, support for separation is lowest in Calgary (12%), higher in Edmonton (16%) and highest in the rest of Alberta (27%).
By current party vote preference, UCP supporters have a narrow preference to stay in Canada (50%) versus separate (41%). NDP voters overwhelmingly prefer to stay (93% vs. 4% separate). Undecided party voters also strongly prefer the stay option (76% vs. 4% separate).
By age, support for separation is highest among those under the age of 35 years (22%), slightly lower among 35 to 54 years of age (19%) and lowest among those 55 years of age or older (13%).
Support for Alberta separation has declined significantly since January of this year
The current 18% support for separation is a statistically significant decline of 10-points from an Ipsos survey conducted in Alberta in January of this year when 28% supported Alberta beginning the process of separation from Canada to seek a new agreement defining its future relationship with the country.
Stay voters in Alberta are more committed than separation voters
Among those who would vote for Alberta to stay in Canada in a future binding referendum, 90% say their stay vote is “definite”, while 7% say it is “probable” and 3% say it is “leaning”.
“Definite” sentiment is 20-points weaker among those who would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada in a future binding referendum. Seventy percent are “definite” in their choice, while 18% are “probable” and 12% are “leaning”.
Separation voters in Alberta are thinking more of the future than about past grievances
Six-in-ten (61%) of those who would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada in a future binding referendum say their main reason is “mostly because I think the future of Alberta would be better outside of Canada”. Four-in-ten (39%) say their vote for separation is “mostly because Alberta has been historically mistreated within Canada”.
This is a reversal of an Ipsos January 2026 poll where 55% said their main motivation was historic mistreatment and 39% said their main motivation was a better future for Alberta outside Canada. The 10-point drop in support for separation since January may be at least partly due to those concerned about historic mistreatment rethinking whether this is adequate cause to separate.
Meanwhile, support for provincial separation varies widely in other regions of the country
Overall, 11% of Canadians outside Alberta say they would vote for their province to separate from Canada if a referendum were held today, but this result masks wide regional differences. Support for separation is 30% in Quebec, which is 12-points higher than in Alberta. Separation support is next highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba at 11%. There is almost no support for separation in BC (2%), Ontario (3%) or Atlantic Canada (3%).
Canadians want Alberta to stay in Canada
Eight-in-ten (80%) Canadians outside Alberta say they want Alberta to stay in Canada, although Quebec residents (63%) are less likely to express support. Only 7% percent of Canadians want to see Alberta separate (13% in PQ) and 13% are undecided (24% in PQ).
Most Canadians think the entire country, not just Albertans, should have a say on the issue of Alberta separation
Nearly six-in-ten (58%) Canadians outside Alberta say that all of Canada should have a say in the issue of Alberta potentially separating from Canada. Slightly less than three-in-ten (28%) believe that this issue is only for Albertans to decide, while 13% are undecided.
The results are very different in Quebec, where more believe that this is for Albertans alone to decide (51%) than believe that all of Canada should have a say (34%).
In fact, Quebec residents are more likely than Albertans to say that Alberta alone should decide. In Alberta, 47% say that Alberta alone should decide, while 42% say that all of Canada should have a say.
Canadians are more likely than not to think the federal government should play a role in the upcoming Alberta referendum
A slight majority (53%) of Canadians outside Alberta believe the federal government should play a role in the upcoming referendum, compared to three-in-ten (29%) who say the federal government should leave the campaign discussion entirely to Albertans.
Again, the results are very different in Quebec, where there is a preference for the federal government to leave the campaign to Albertans (50%) over playing a more active role (31%).
Albertans are split down the middle on this issue. Forty-five percent want the federal government to play a role and 42% want the federal government to stay out of the campaign discussion.
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted May 28 to June 1, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, including 600 Alberta residents and 900 rest of Canada residents. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll of 1,500 Canadians is accurate to within +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all adult Canadian residents been polled. Questions asked of Albertans only (n=600) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Questions asked of Canadians outside Alberta (n=900) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
Chairman, Ipsos Canada Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
About Ipsos
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