Majority (53%) Say Harper Conservatives Doing `Good Job' and Should Continue Governing as Only 39% Believe Ignatieff Liberals Would Do `Better Job'

Toronto, ON - While many (53%) Canadians `agree' (21% strongly/32% somewhat) that `our parliament isn't working', a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television reveals that a majority (53%) `agrees' (20% strongly/34% somewhat) that `Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are doing a good job of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians and should continue to govern'.

In contrast, only four in ten (39%) believe (13% strongly/26% somewhat) that `if elected, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would do a better job than Stephen Harper and the Conservatives of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians'. In fact, a majority (51%) `disagrees' (30% strongly/21% somewhat) that `Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada would be a good government for Canada', while only four in ten (40%) `agree' (12% strongly/27% somewhat).

The support of a majority towards the actions of the Harper government and a reluctance on the part of most to believe that Mr. Ignatieff would do a better job likely explains why only 36% of individuals `agree' (16% strongly/19% somewhat) that `it's time to clear the air with an election'.

But if an election were to be held tomorrow, it would be a very tight race. The Liberals (35%, down 1 point) and the Conservatives (34%, up 1 point) are in a statistical tie among decided voters, while the NDP (13%, up 1 point), and Green Party (8%, down 1 point) trail. The Bloc is at 10% support nationally (up 1 point), while 6% of voters remain undecided.

Within Quebec, the Bloc (38%, unchanged) maintains a lead over the Liberals (33%), Conservatives (16%), NDP (7%) and Green Party (4%).

But the story is in Ontario where the gap between the two leading parties is narrowing. The Liberals (40%) and the Conservatives (38%) are in a statistical tie, while the NDP (13%) and Green Party (8%) are well back.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from June 16-18, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Majority (53%) `Agrees' Parliament Isn't Working, But Minority (36%) Says It's `Time to Clear the Air with an Election'...

A majority (53%) of Canadians `agree' (21% strongly/32% somewhat) that `parliament isn't working', while four in ten (41%) `disagree' (16% strongly/26% somewhat) with this notion. But in what seems like a rare sight in Canadian politics, Prime Minister Harper and Mr. Ignatieff managed to work out a deal on EI to avoid a summer election, bringing their actions in line with what the majority seemed to desire.

• British Columbians (61%) are most inclined to believe that parliament isn't working, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (55%), Quebec (54%), Alberta (51%), Ontario (51%), and Atlantic Canada (50%).
• Women (56%) are more likely to agree than are men (50%).

But most Canadians appear to not want to make improvements to parliament by means of an election. Only 36% `agree' (16% strongly/19% somewhat) that `it's time to clear the air with an election', while six in ten (60%) `disagree' (44% strongly/16% somewhat).

• A majority (52%) of Quebecers (29% strongly/23% somewhat) `agree' that it is in fact time to clear the air with an election, making them the sole jurisdiction to prefer calling an election. In stark contrast, significantly fewer Canadians living in British Columbia (39%), Atlantic Canada (35%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34%), Alberta (27%) and Ontario (27%) `agree'.
• Canadians aged 18 to 34 are much more likely (45%) than those aged 35 to 54 (35%) or 55+ (28%) to `agree' that it's time for an election.

Majority (53%) `Agrees' Harper Conservatives Doing `Good Job'...

A majority (53%) of Canadians `agree' (20% strongly/34% somewhat) that `Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are doing a good job of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians and should continue to govern'. On the other hand, four in ten (43%) `disagree' (23% strongly/21% somewhat) that this is the case.

• Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are most likely (75%) to believe that Harper's Conservatives are doing a good job and should continue to govern, followed closely by residents of Alberta (72%). Those in Ontario (56%), Atlantic Canada (51%) and British Columbia (50%) are slightly less enthusiastic, while only 37% of Quebecers agree with this position.

Majority (52%) `Disagrees' That Ignatieff Would do a Better Job, and that Ignatieff Government Would Be Good for Canada (51%)...

More than one half (52%) of Canadians `disagree' (32% strongly/20% somewhat) that `if elected, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would do a better job than Stephen Harper and the Conservatives of managing the issues that are most important to Canadians'. Just four in ten (39%) `agree' (13% strongly/26% somewhat) that the Liberals would do a better job.

• A majority (53%) of Atlantic Canadians believe that Ignatieff would do a better job, compared to fewer Quebecers (48%), British Columbians (39%), Ontarians (35%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%) and Alberta (29%).

Similarly, a slim majority (51%) `disagrees' (30% strongly/21% somewhat) that `Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada would be a good government for Canada'. On the flip side, four in ten (40%) `agree' (12% strongly/27% somewhat) that it would be a good government.

• Atlantic Canadians (52%) are most inclined to believe that an Ignatieff government would be a good government for Canada, while those in Quebec (47%), British Columbia (43%), Ontario (37%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (32%) and Alberta (26%) are less likely to believe so.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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