A Majority (56%) Believe Saddam Hussein Represents Real Threat To World Peace
While Canadians accept the premise that Saddam Hussein poses a threat to world peace, a over half (55%) indicate that if the United States takes military action towards Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, Canada should not send armed forces to assist. Four in ten (43%) indicate that we should send Canadian troops to help our American allies. These results are consistent with the views found when asked between August 27th and 29th, when 54% disagreed with sending troops, and 44% agreed with the proposition.
Asked who would be most to blame if there is a war in Iraq, half (52%) of Canadians express the view that both Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush would be about equally to blame. On an individual basis, more Canadians feel that Iraq President Hussein (26%) would be most to blame than would blame American President George W. Bush (19%).
In general Canadians are split on the job that George W. Bush has done as President (approve 46%; disapprove 49%), but approve slightly (approve 51%; disapprove 46%) when evaluating his handling of the War on Terrorism.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between September 24th and September 26th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.
After weeks of talk of war in Iraq, a majority (56%) Canadians believe that the major reason for the current U.S./Iraq dispute is that the Iraqi government led by Saddam Hussein continues to build weapons of mass destruction and represents a real threat to world peace. This compares to just over one-third (37%) who say the real reason for the dispute over Iraq is that the U.S. government led by George W. Bush just wants to remove Saddam Hussein from office even though his government is no longer a serious threat to world peace. Seven percent say they `don't know.'
- Regionally, those most likely to say that Saddam Hussein continues to build weapons of mass destruction and remains a real threat are located in Alberta (62%) and Atlantic Canada (62%), followed by Ontario (58%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%), and Quebec (54%). Those least likely to express this view are residents of British Columbia (46%). Conversely, those in British Columbia (49%) are the most likely to believe the major reason for the dispute is that the US government just wants to remove Saddam Hussein from office. At least one in ten residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (11%) say they `don't know'.
- There also appears to be a split in view based on level of educational achievement. While a majority in each education group believe that the conflict is due to Iraq continuing to pose a threat to world peace, those who have a high school diploma (64%) or did not finish high school (63%) are more likely that those with a university degree (53%) or some university or other post-secondary education (51%) to agree with this view. On the flip side, those with some university or other post-secondary education (44%) or a university degree (41%) are more likely than those with a high school diploma (29%) or who did not finish high school (23%) to indicate that the major reason for the dispute is that the U.S. government just wants to remove President Hussein from office.
- Older (59%) and middle aged (58%) Canadians are more likely than younger (52%) Canadians to believe that Saddam Hussein is still a threat to world peace, while conversely those between 18 and 34 years of age (41%) are more likely to believe that the real reason behind the latest dispute is that the U.S. just wants to remove Saddam Hussein from office compared to the views of those over 35 years of age (35%).
- Canadians in the highest income households (60%) are more likely than those in the lowest income households (53%) to say that Iraq continues to represent a real threat to world peace.
While Canadians accept the premise that Saddam Hussein poses a threat to world peace, a majority (55%) indicate that if the United States takes military action towards Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, Canada should not send armed forces to help. Four in ten (43%) indicate that we should send Canadian troops to support our American allies. These results are consistent with the views found when asked between August 27th and 29th, when 54% disagreed with sending troops, and 44% agreed with the proposition.
- Residents of Quebec (64%) are the most likely to disagree with sending Canadian troops to Iraq in support of an American military action, followed by those in British Columbia (57%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%), Atlantic Canada (53%), and Ontario (51%). Alberta residents (43%) are least likely to express this view. In comparison, Albertans (56%) are the most likely to express agreement with this proposition while Quebecers (33%) are least likely.
- Canadian in lower income households (63%) are more likely than those in middle (55%) or upper (51%) income households to disagree with sending Canadian troops.
- Women (59% versus 51% of men) are more likely to disagree with the proposal to send Canadian troops to Iraq, while men (48% versus 38% of women) are more likely to agree with the idea.
Asked who would be most to blame if there is a war in Iraq, half (52%) of Canadians express the view that both Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush would be about equally to blame. On an individual basis, more Canadians feel that Iraq President Hussein (26%) would be most to blame than would blame American President George W. Bush (19%).
- Regionally, those most likely to place the blame equally on Mr. Bush and Mr. Hussein are residents of Quebec (58%), Alberta (55%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%), and Ontario (50%), followed by those in Atlantic Canada (48%) and British Columbia (45%).
- Albertans (33%), Atlantic Canadians (32%) and British Columbians (30%) lead the list of those who blame Saddam Hussein followed by those in Ontario (27%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%), while residents of Quebec (19%) are the least likely to say this. Those most likely to place the blame on President Bush are located in British Columbia (24%) followed by those in Ontario (20%), Atlantic Canada (19%), Quebec (18%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (15%) and Alberta (10%).
- Women (59% versus 44% of men) are more likely to place blame equally, while men are more likely to blame Saddam Hussein (32% versus 21% of women) or George W. Bush (22% versus 16% of women).
- Younger (56%) Canadians are more likely than older (46%) Canadians to blame both equally, while older (33%) and middle aged (30%) Canadians are more likely to place the blame on Saddam Hussein than are their younger (18%) counterparts.
- Canadians in the highest income households (32%) are more likely than those in lowest income households (21%) to say that Saddam Hussein will be mostly to blame.
In general Canadians are split (approve 46%; disapprove 49%) when evaluating the job that George W. Bush has done as President of the United States.
- President Bush receives his highest approval rating from residents of Alberta (65%), and his lowest in Atlantic Canada (42%), British Columbia (40%) and Quebec (38%). Overall, residents of British Columbia (approve 40%; disapprove 58%), Quebec (approve 38%; disapprove 54%) and Atlantic Canada (approve 42%; disapprove 54%) are more likely to disapprove of George W. Bush's job as President of the United States. Alberta (approve 65%; disapprove 33%) is the only province that overall expresses approval of the job George W. Bush has done as President, while those in Ontario (approve 50%; disapprove 45%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (approve 47%; disapprove 47%) are split on the issue.
- Canadians 55 years of age and older (approve 42%; disapprove 54%) are the only age group that clearly disapproves of the job that George W. Bush has done as President. Canadians between 18 and 34 (approve 47%; disapprove 47%) and those between 35 and 54 (approve 49%; disapprove 46%) are split on this topic.
- Men (52% versus 40% of women) are more likely to express approval of President Bush's performance, while women (52% versus 45% of men) are more likely to express disapproval.
Overall, Canadians approve (51%; disapprove 46%) of the job President Bush has done in handling the War on Terrorism.
- Regionally, residents of Alberta (63%) are the most likely to approve of President Bush's handling of the War on Terrorism, followed by those in Atlantic Canada (55%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%), Ontario (52%), British Columbia (50%), and Quebec (44%).
- Men (59%) are more likely than women (43%) to approve of the President's handling of this issue.
- Canadians in upper (55%) and middle (54%) income households are more likely than those in lower income households (43%) to approve of Mr. Bush's handling of the War on Terrorism.
- Canadians with a high school diploma (58%) are more likely than those with a university degree (44%) to express approval.
To view the release and tables, please open the attached PDF file.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
