MAJORITY AFRAID LIBERALS MAY START SPENDING EXCESSIVELY NOW THAT DEFICIT ELIMINATED

HOLD THE PAIN AND DON'T DO IT AGAIN: 60% SAY FEDERAL DEFICIT CUTTING CAUSED TOO MUCH PAIN WITH 62% WANTING LAW MAKING FUTURE GOVERNMENT DEFICITS ILLEGAL

ACTIVITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD STAY THE SAME (48%) OR SHRINK (36%) WITH THE MAJORITY (52%) AFRAID LIBERALS MAY START SPENDING EXCESSIVELY NOW THAT DEFICIT ELIMINATED

This Angus Reid Group/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone from January 20th to the 25th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,515 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,515, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

On February 16th 1999, Finance Minister Paul Martin will present his new budget for 1999. What is it that Canadians are expecting for the upcoming year? Six in ten (60%) Canadians say that cutting the federal deficit was too painful and many (62%) support a new law making it illegal for future governments to run up a deficit. Most Canadians indicate that they want the federal government's activities to stay the same (48%) or shrink (36%) with the majority (52%) afraid the Liberal government may start to spend excessively now that the deficit is eliminated.

A National Angus Reid Poll conducted among 1,515 Canadians between January 20th and January 25th, 1999 provides the following insights into just what Canadians expect from the upcoming announcement of the federal budget.

Six in ten (60%) Canadians think the federal government caused too much pain to average Canadians by cutting too deeply to reduce the deficit (only 12% strongly disagreed). This sentiment has only increased with time - in 1997 55%, in 1998 57%, to 60% currently. Atlantic Canada (73%) leads the way in feeling the cuts caused too much pain.

Consequently, six in ten (62%) are supportive of a law that would make it illegal for present or future governments to run a deficit. This view is most widely held in Quebec (69%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (67%).

ACTIVITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT

Canadians were asked whether overall, considering the federal government's current size and activities, they felt it should continue to shrink, start to grow, or stay the same. Half (48% - up 4 points since 1998) think it should stay about the same, slightly more than one third (36% - down 4 points since 1998) say the federal government should continue to shrink, while 14% (down 1 point since 1998) say it should grow.

FEAR OF LIBERAL SPENDING

Half (52%) of Canadians indicate deficit has been eliminated, (they) are afraid the federal Liberals may start spending excessively and get us back into a deficit situation - no change from last year's 51%. Alberta (58%) and Atlantic Canada (58%) are the most concerned about the federal government spending excessively in future now that the deficit has been eliminated.

ALLOCATING BUDGET SURPLUS - PAY THE DEBT

Four in ten (39%) Canadians believe the main priority in allocating surplus monies should be to reduce the debt. Others believe the government should cut taxes (33%) or spend more money on government programs (24%).

If the federal government grants a tax cut, Canadians are split as to where it should be directed. Fifty three percent of Canadians suggest that tax cuts should be directed toward low and medium-income Canadians. The other half (47%) think that all Canadians should receive a tax break regardless of their income. Not surprisingly, those in the lower income bracket (61%) are more supportive of lower and middle income Canadians receiving the tax cut, while higher income Canadians (57%) are more supportive of an even division regardless of income.

For further information, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

Christian Bourque
Directeur de recherche Affaires
Groupe Angus Reid
(514) 877-5550