The Manitoba Political Scene
The survey for the latest Manitoba Reid Report, conducted between January 27th and February 1st among 600 adult Manitobans, provides a snapshot of the major provincial and federal parties. Future news releases will provide tracking of these numbers on a quarterly basis.
THE PROVINCIAL POLITICAL SCENE
Party Support
- The provincial PCs lead the polls with 39% of decided voters. Sitting at 28%, the NDP are in second. The Provincial Liberals have 22% of decided voters.
- 7% of respondents report that they are undecided. An additional 4% refused to answer or said they would not vote. These are excluded from the calculations.
THE FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE
Party Support
In contrast to the current malaise within the Manitoba Liberal Party, the federal Liberal Party leads the electoral pack among Manitobans who are decided voters. The Reform Party is following from a distant second place.
- 47% of Manitobans with federal party preferences said that they would vote for the Liberal Party "if an election were held tomorrow."
- One out of five (22%) said they would vote Reform. Southern Manitoba is the Reform's stronghold.
- The federal PCs and NDP are relegated to third place with 14 percent support each in Manitoba.
- 7% reported being "undecided" while an additional 3% refused to answer or said that they would not vote.
The research results presented in this Manitoba Reid Report are based on a province-wide survey of current public opinion. Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted among a random and representative cross-section of 600 Manitoba adults between January 27 and February 1, 1998.
The sample for this Angus Reid survey was stratified into three distinct regions: Winnipeg (census divisional) Southern Manitoba (census divisions 1 to 10, 12, 13, 14 and 15) and Northern Manitoba (census divisions 16-23). Sample was drawn in proportion to the adult population within each region. Interview quotas were imposed for each, with 300 residents surveyed in Winnipeg, 150 in Southern Manitoba, and 150 in Northern Manitoba. Data collected for this report were weighted first by region, and then by gender and age, to reflect census data proportions within the Manitoba population.
With a sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the survey results are within ±4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult population of the province been surveyed. The margin of error will be larger for sub-groupings of the Manitoban population.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Adams, Ph.D.
Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(24) 949-3108
