At The Midpoint: The Federal Canadian Landscape
Part I

Toronto, ON - With the Harper government at the halfway point in its majority mandate, a new CTV /Ipsos Reid survey shows the Harper Conservatives appear to have weathered most of the Senate scandal storm and put a halt to their steady decline, although most believe it's time for a change in government come the next election which is far off on the 2015 horizon.

A common saying is that a week in politics is a lifetime--and with just under two years until the next election, it is, well, close to infinity for most in politics. Much can happen to any of the parties and their leaders over that time but all indications are that the Conservative majority government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper is about to re-boot both its front benches and directional agenda in preparing for that seemingly far-off election battle.

With that in mind, the CTV/Ipsos Reid poll digs into the underpinning strengths and weaknesses of the current government and the opposing parties--with tomorrow's poll focussing on not only the top line voter intentions but also the commitment to their vote to find out which voters are "in play" and a new "turn out and turn up" model to more accurately predict how the 60% of Canadians who would actually go to the polls to mark their ballot may produce the final result on any given opinion poll sounding.

Majority Governments don't need to Win a Majority to Get a Majority: 40% will do Just Fine...

With a multi-party system, it's instructive to note that no single party needs a majority of the popular vote to win a majority government. In fact, the current-sitting government won its 53.9% majority of the seats in parliament with just 39.62% of the vote. Putting this in perspective, six in 10 Canadian voters could wake every morning and have views contrary to the government of the day yet the other four in 10 by breakfast can keep the government of the day in power. As such, when an incumbent government is getting approval numbers at or above 40% it spells potential viability.

Approval of the Harper Government Performance is at 41%...

Four in ten (41%) Canadians `approve' (7% strongly/34% somewhat) of the Conservative government's performance under the Prime Minister Harper's leadership, up 3 points from May, nearly back to April levels (42%) and one point ahead of the Prime Minister's popular vote share in the last election. A majority (59%) `disapprove' (27% strongly/33% somewhat) of the Harper Government's performance.

But the Desire to Re-Elect the Government is Dwindling: Down to 30%...

• A fourth Harper mandate has the support of nearly all (92%) Conservative Party supporters, compared to just 6% of Liberal and NDP supporters who believe that the Harper Government has done a good job and deserves re-election
• The Prime Minister appears to be doing an apt job according to party supporters as well. Nine in ten (90%) Conservative supporters approve of the job done by the Prime Minister compared to just two in ten Liberal (21%) and NDP (22%) supporters who feel the same.

This is a troublesome finding for the Government as this number should be higher. In fact, historically, the Conservatives have hovered around the Prime Minister's approval rating with 44% believing the Prime Minister should be re-elected in the March preceding the last federal election (in May 2011).

Majority (56%) Believes Canada is Headed Down the Wrong Track; Just 44% Think It's Headed in the Right Direction...

Also creating trouble for the government is that a majority (56%) of Canadians believe that `things in this country are off on the wrong track', which is up 2 points from April and 13 points from March 2011, heading into the 2011 Election - meaning that Canadians have a much different assessment of this country now than they did prior to giving Stephen Harper his majority government.

By comparison, just 44% think things are `headed in the right direction' in Canada, which is down 2 points from April of this year, and 13 points from March 2011. If the Prime Minister and the Conservatives want to right the ship, they will need to convince Canadians that things are going better than many believe they appear to be. It is likely that the recent scandal distractions are giving Canadians a sour opinion of where Canada is headed.

The Personalities of the Parties...

We asked Canadians to tell us how the various political parties stacked up against a series of personality "attributes". What they told us is:

The Conservatives topped the other parties when it came to being viewed as `tired' (49%), `arrogant' (53%), and being a `party of the past' (43%) - but they were also top when it came to being `competent' (35%) and `well-rounded' (35%).

The currently-leading Liberals topped the other parties on `sharing my values' (32%) and tie with the NDP as the party that's `for all Canadians' (34%).

The NDP were most impressive in topping the other parties on attributes ranging from being `honest (41%)', `inspired' (36%), being a party `of the future' (36%) and of `hope' (35%)--and as most `risky' (33%) among the parties provided.

In ranked order, the Harper Conservatives are judged by Canadians to be: `arrogant' (53%), `tired' (49%), `of the past' (43%), `well rounded' (35%), `competent' (35%), `risky' (32%), `shares my values' (30%), `for all Canadians' (29%), `of the future' (28%), `honest' (28%), providing `hope' (27%) and `inspired' (27%).

In ranked order, the Trudeau Liberals are judged by Canadians to be: `of the past' (37%), `for all Canadians' (34%), `providing hope' (34%), `of the future' (33%), `inspired' (33%), `shares my values' (32%), `well rounded' (32%), `tired' (32%), `competent' (32%), `arrogant' (30%), `risky' (32%) and `honest' (25%).

In ranked order, the Mulcair New Democrats are judged by Canadians to be: honest (41%), `of the future' (36%), `inspired' (36%), `providing hope' (35%), `for all Canadians' (34%), `risky' (33%), `shares my values' (31%), `well rounded' (30%), `competent' (28%), `of the past' (14%), `tired' (13%) and `arrogant'(12%).

What it all Means...

Taken together, these data show that the Conservatives score most positively on attributes that relate to management skill - but also have the highest negatives when it comes to both style and being ready for the future. The NDP, as a party, have seized the high ground when it comes to defining "change" - they are seen as being about honesty, hope and the future. Most importantly, they don't stand out from the other parties as being especially "risky". Most troubling for the Liberal Party is that Justin Trudeau's star power has not yet transformed the personality profile of the Liberal Party. Even though Liberal support is up significantly from the 2011 election, they have not been able to displace the NDP as being the party best able to represent hope and change.

As we move towards the next election the challenge for all three parties is beginning to be defined:

• For the Conservatives, their challenge is defining themselves as vibrant, current and appropriate. That means pushing "competence" (especially on the economy) as a key ballot question, while at the same time reducing perceptions that they are tired, out of touch, and arrogant.
• For the NDP, their challenge is turning the perception that Canadians have about them representing hope and change into votes.
• For the Liberals, the challenge will be unifying voters who want change around a singular message of hope (which means seizing this attribute from the NDP).

The table below outlines in full the different party attributes and how Canadians rate the current party landscape on these attributes:

(Click to enlarge image)

A Focus on Quebec...

As is often the case, Quebecers have a differing point of view from those in the rest of the country. In short, Quebec opinions, which represent roughly 25% of the population of Canada, tend to skew the overall Canadian average lower. The following outline some of those differences of opinion:

• Just 12% of Quebecers believe that the Harper government deserves re-election, compared to 30% of Canadians overall.
• Just three in ten (29%) believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 44% of Canadians overall.
• Just three in ten (29%) approve of the performance of Stephen Harper and his government, compared to 41% of Canadians overall.
• While the Bloc Quebecois certainly continues to be weaker than it has been prior to the last election, it is definitely a contender in Quebec. The following are the proportions of Quebecers who believe that the Bloc is best described by these traits: `shares my values' (28%), `of the past' (26%), `tired' (25%), `honest' (22%), `arrogant' (21%), `inspired' (18%), `competent' (20%), inspires `hope' (19%), `of the future' (15%), `well-rounded' (12%), `for all Canadians' (9%), and `risky' (8%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between June 21st to 25th, 2013, on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,177 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-3.3 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.