Nearly Half of NDP (44%) and Liberal (41%) Voters Support Merger of Two Parties under One Banner
In the midst of leadership campaigns that aim to renew and strengthen both parties, nearly half (44%) of NDP supporters `agree' (20% strongly/24% somewhat) that `the federal NDP and federal Liberal Party should merge to create one large national party under a new, commonly-elected leader, with the aim of creating an effective opposition to the current Harper and future Conservative governments. A similar proportion (41%) of Liberal supporters `agree' (18% strongly/24% somewhat) with the concept of a merger, suggesting that leadership contenders for both parties who champion this cause could motivate a core group of supporters who are receptive to this message. Conversely, half of NDP (52%, 31% strongly/21% somewhat) and Liberal (55%, 29% strongly/27% somewhat) supporters `disagree' with this idea.
If an election were to be held tomorrow, the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper, which currently enjoys a Majority Government in the House of Commons, would receive 37% of the vote among decided voters, down 3 points since the election. The NDP would receive the support of 31% of voters, exactly the same proportion of the popular vote they received on Election Day on May 2nd.
The Liberal Party under interim leader Bob Rae has not made up any significant ground since E-Day and would receive the support of 21% of Canadians (up 2 points since the election), and the Bloc Quebecois led by interim leader Vivian Barbot continues to struggle, receiving 6% of the vote nationally (unchanged), or 26% in Quebec. Elizabeth May's Green Party would receive 3% support (down 1 point), and 7% are undecided.
When the NDP were catapulted into Official Opposition as a result of the election, many speculated that the party might not be able to fulfill its new role effectively, on account of the sheer number of new MPs among its ranks. Coupled with the tragic loss of the late Jack Layton and a little-known Nycole Trumel taking over the reins, the speculation continued. However, most (66%) Canadians `agree' (20% strongly/46% somewhat) that `the federal NDP is doing a good job as the official opposition party to the Stephen Harper government', while just one in three (26%) `disagree' (9% strongly/17% somewhat) and one in ten (8%) don't know either way. In fact, even a majority of Tory supporters (59%) think that the NDP is doing a good job, and naturally NDP (86%) supporters are more likely to think so than Liberal supporters (63%).
Conversely, Bob Rae's performance as interim leader of the federal Liberals has been complimented among many political pundits, and many have speculated that he might make an effective permanent leader of the party. However, just one in three (34%) `agree' (8% strongly/27% somewhat) that `the federal Liberals under Bob Rae are doing a better job than the official opposition NDP under interim leader Nycole Turmel in providing strong opposition to the Harper Conservative Majority'. Half (49%) `disagree' (18% strongly/31% somewhat), and two in ten (17%) don't know. Specifically among Liberal supporters, a slight majority (52%) agree (20% strongly/32% somewhat) that Rae is doing a better job than Turmel, while three in ten (28%) disagree (4% strongly/24% somewhat) and two in ten (20%) are unsure.
In Search of a Permanent NDP Leader...
A majority (61%) of Canadians `agree' (20% strongly/40% somewhat) that they are `interested in following the current federal NDP leadership race to succeed the late Jack Layton', while one in three (35%) `disagree' (16% strongly/19% somewhat) that they are interested in the leadership race, and 4% don't know. Among NDP supporters, 86% are interested, while 12% are not.
Canadians were asked to reflect on the various characteristics that a potential new leader of the party might have:
- Eight in ten (78%) `agree' (50% strongly/28% somewhat) that the next NDP leader must be fluently bilingual, while two in ten (20%) `disagree' (11% strongly/9% somewhat). Among NDP supporters, 84% `agree' (60% strongly/25% somewhat) while 15% `disagree' (7% strongly/8% somewhat).
- Three in ten (27%) `agree' (9% strongly/19% somewhat) that the next NDP leader should be from Quebec, while two in three (67%) `disagree' (38% strongly/29% somewhat). Six in ten (63%) Quebecers `agree' (25% strongly/38% somewhat) while one in three (32%) `disagree' (6% strongly/26% somewhat). Among NDP supporters nationally, this could potentially represent a contentious issue as four in ten (36%) `agree' (10% strongly/27% somewhat) while six in ten (58%) `disagree' (31% strongly/27% somewhat).
- A majority (56%) `agrees' (19% strongly/37% somewhat) that the next NDP leader does not have to be a currently-elected member of the House of Commons, while four in ten (38%) `disagree' (20% strongly/18% somewhat). Among NDP supporters, six in ten (60%) `agree' (22% strongly/38% somewhat) and four in ten (39%) `disagree' (15% strongly/24% somewhat).
Whoever the next permanent leader of the party is, he or she will have incredibly big shoes to fill as a majority (51%) `agrees' (22% strongly/29% somewhat) that the next leader `will never live up to the political success and leadership of Jack Layton'. Conversely, four in ten (41%) `disagree' (14% strongly/27% somewhat) with this premise. Among NDP suppers, 52% `agree' (19% strongly/33% somewhat) while four in ten (43%) `disagree' (14% strongly/30% somewhat).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from November 8-9, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. Regional margins of error:
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Darrell Bricker
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Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
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