New Conservative Party Starts At 21%--Highest Level Of Support For Opposition Party, With Exception Of 2000 Election, Since 1993

Toronto, ON- The first poll conducted after the creation of the new Conservative party by Ipsos-Reid on behalf of the Globe and Mail/CTV, shows that in the absence of a leader, solid platform, or campaign the new party has held on to most of the committed voters from their predecessor parties. With 21% national support, it would appear the Progressive Conservatives (last week at 14%), and the Canadian Alliance (last week at 10%) have almost managed to equate one and one to two. However, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party would still see an outstanding majority with 48% national support, up 5 points since last week. The NDP (14%), the Bloc Quebecois (9%), and the Green Party (4%) all trail. This is the largest support which an opposition party has garnered since 1993, with the exception of the November 2000 election when the Alliance posted approximately 25% of the national vote. In 1994 the Alliance came close with 20% support.

Meanwhile, as the newly elected leader of the federal Liberal Party enjoys his first official day as Prime Minister, speculation surrounding what new policies and practices he will implement are taking place. People are starting to wonder whether the changes will be drastic or go virtually unnoticed. Half of Canadians (52%) expect that when Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister he will "really shake things up", while 41% tend to disagree (7% don't know). For the most part, Canadians appear to have high hopes that there will be considerable changes in Ottawa when Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister today as the majority (83%) of those who said they expect him to "shake things up" think that this is a "good thing" while 60% of those people who said they do not expect him to shake things up regard this as a "bad thing". Canadians seem to be in agreement that there should be some quick, significant changes in Ottawa.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between December 2nd and December 4th, 2003 and December 9th and December 12th, 2003. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,057 and 1,055 adults (respectively) across the country. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Conservative Party Of Canada Moves Up To Make A Play

Today, support for the new party is at 21% (down 3 points from their individual vote support in last week's poll).

• In the breadbasket of Ontario, where the Conservatives sit at 23% and where, if they can pick up another 7 points (bringing them up to 30% and with a possibility of additional seats) they may emerge as contenders in the next election.

• Saskatchewan/Manitoba is the only region where support is up (30% today vs. 25% combined last week).

• One plus one does not equal two in British Columbia where Conservative party support is at 17%, down 14 points from last week. Previously, individual support for the Progressive Conservatives was 11% and for the Canadian Alliance 20%.

• Support in Alberta (50%) has dropped nominally from a combined 54% last week while support in Atlantic Canada (29%), Ontario (23%), and Quebec (5%) has also faltered (down 5 points in total).

• Interesting demographic outcomes show Canadians aged 55 or older (24%) are significantly more likely than Canadians 18-34 (17%) to support the new Conservative party.

• It appears that this merger has also helped pull support for the NDP in British Columbia (28%) where they are up 9 points. The Liberals have also picked up significant points in British Columbia 41% (up 9 points), Ontario 60% (up 8 points), and Quebec 45% (up 5 points).

Before the merger between the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives was confirmed we asked Canadians if they felt that a united right would have a real chance of defeating the Liberals in the next election. Six in ten (62%) of Canadians were uncertain about whether a merger of this magnitude would create a threat to the Liberal Party and disagreed (35% "strongly disagree", 27% somewhat disagree) with this statement. Three is ten (30%) agree (10% "strongly agree", 20% "somewhat agree") with the statement and 8% said they "don't know".

• Regionally, Canadians from Alberta (39%) were the most likely to think that a united right-wing party would have a chance to defeat the Liberal party under Paul Martin, followed by residents of Atlantic Canada (31%), Ontario (30%), British Columbia (29%), Quebec (27%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%).

• Canadians aged 18-34 (35%) are more likely to agree that a party composed of the Alliance and Conservatives would be a threat to the Liberals compared to Canadians aged 35-54 (29%) and 55+ (26%).

Paul Martin Set to Shake Things Up In Ottawa

Overall, Canadians appear to be looking for some extensive changes when Paul Martin takes office. Four in ten (43%) Canadians expect him to "shake things up" and think that when he does it will be a "good thing". One quarter (25%) do not expect him to "shake things up" but wish that he would. On the other hand, 5% say he will "shake things" up and they think this will have a negative effect on the government, while 13% say he won't "shake things up" and it will be a "good thing".

• Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%), Atlantic Canada (58%), Ontario (56%), and Quebec (51%) have the highest expectations of Paul Martin and agree that he will "shake things up" in Ottawa once he becomes Prime Minister, followed by British Columbia (47%), and Alberta (38%).

• Canadians aged 55+ (59%) are significantly more likely to expect Martin to "shake things up" compared to Canadians between 18-54 (50%).

Making Sense Of Paul Martin's Policies

Whether or not they think that Paul Martin will shake things up in Ottawa many people are still struggling to understand the position he takes on many issues and the policies that his new Liberal government will introduce. Statistically, Canadians are split between those who agree that they have a "good understanding" (44% agree; 10% "strongly agree", 34% "somewhat agree") and those who disagree that they "have a good understanding" (48% disagree; 19% "strongly disagree", 29% "somewhat disagree") of the policies that Paul Martin will introduce when he becomes Prime Minister. The remaining 8% "don't know".

• Interestingly, the new Prime Minister appears undefined to many Canadians, however looking at regional breakdowns it is apparent that Ontarians (53%) feel they have a better grasp and understanding of Paul Martin's issues than the rest of the country: Quebec (43%), Alberta (38%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), Atlantic Canada (35%), and British Columbia (33%).

• Older Canadians (55+) are significantly more likely to "strongly agree" (14%) with the statement, and generally appear to have a better understanding of Paul Martin's policies compared to Canadians aged 18-34 (7%), and 35-54 (10%).

• Canadians aged 18-54 (21%) are more likely to "strongly disagree" with the statement and do not feel that they understand the new leaders policies compared to 14% of Canadians 55 and older.

• Martin is yet to be defined in the mind of the public, however citizens with higher income ($60K+) and education levels (university degree) are more likely to have a better understanding of Paul Martin's policies (49% each).

Please open the attached PDF files to vioew the release and detailed tables

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, Ph.D
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900