Growing Proportion of Ontarians (58%, +9 Since Election Began) Want Majority Government over Minority (43%, -8)

Toronto, Ontario, May 30, 2018 — A growing proportion of Ontarians want to see a majority government elected on June 7th, while fewer want to see a minority-government situation, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

Nearly six in ten (58%) Ontarians say that the best outcome for Ontario from this election would be to elect a majority government (up 9 points since the election began), while fewer (43%, down 8 point) think the best outcome would be a minority government.
• Among those who prefer a majority government outcome, 43% (-7) want a PC majority government, slightly outpacing the 39% (+15) who want an NDP majority. Just 18% of those who prefer a majority government want it to be a Liberal majority (-8).
• Among those who prefer a minority government outcome, 45% (-4) say the best outcome would be if the government were NDP-led, while fewer prefer a PC-led (31%, +5) or Liberal-led (24%, -1) minority government.

With both the Tories and the NDP polling well province wide, there exists the potential that neither party wins a majority of seats. This would likely put the Liberals as kingmakers in a minority government, propping up either the NDP or the Tories. If this occurs, six in ten (59%) Ontarians say they’d prefer to see the Liberals supporting Andrea Horwath and the NDP, rather than the Liberals supporting Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives (41%). Moreover, among Liberal voters, three quarters (76%) would rather see the Liberals prop up an NDP government, while only one quarter (24%) would prefer the Liberals help the Tories form government.

NDP and Tories now Tied as Party with Best Chance of Replacing Wynne Government

Since the start of the campaign, this election has been about change and who is best able to defeat the incumbent Liberals and bring about change –most (75%) Ontarians continue to believe change is needed at Queen’s Park. Until now, Doug Ford and the PCs were seen as the primary agents of change, but now Ontarians aren’t as strong in their convictions. The PCs (46%, -11 points since last week) and NDP (45%, +14) are now tied as the party Ontarians believe has the best chance of defeating Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals. Just 9% (-3) say neither has the better chance, and that the Liberals will be re-elected.

Explaining why the NDP continues to perform well in the popular vote, six in ten (60%, +17 points since last week) now believe that they have the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PC Party from forming government, while just 18% (down 8 points) believe it’s the Liberals. Two in ten (22%) say neither has the better chance, and the PCs will win the election (down 9 points).

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath still has a commanding lead as the leader who Ontarians think would make the best Premier of Ontario (43%, -5), but her share has fallen back down to earth as she and the NDP come under more scrutiny. She remains well ahead of PC Leader Doug Ford (33%, -1) and Liberal Leader and current Premier Kathleen Wynne (19%, +1). Five percent (5%) are unsure which leader would make the best Premier.

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This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 25 and 27, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,241 Ontario eligible voters was interviewed online (841 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel were interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling) and by telephone (400 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ via live-operator random-digit dialing, dual-frame cellphone (65%) and landline (35%)). Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible Ontario voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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