Toronto, ON, April 27, 2019 — As the daily barrage of news coverage around the SNC-Lavalin affair subsides and Canadians begin to focus their attention elsewhere, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News shows the gap between the Tories and Liberals is tightening once again.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer would receive 36% of the decided popular vote, down 4 points since the end of March. The Liberals led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would receive 32% of the vote, up 2 points. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP would garner 19% of the vote, down 2 points, while Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Quebecois would receive 5% nationally, or 20% in Quebec. Other parties, including the Green Party, would receive 8% of the vote – the highest Ipsos has measured the party this election cycle – likely buoyed by the strong performance of the Green Party in the recent PEI Election. Two in ten Canadians have either not made up their mind (21%) or wouldn’t vote (7%).
Elections are won or lost in the regions of Canada, which shows that the election result is far from a foregone conclusion:
- In Ontario, the Conservatives (34%) and Liberals (34%) are in a dogfight, followed by the NDP (25%) and others (7%).
- In Quebec, while the Liberals (33%) still lead the Conservatives (26%), Bloc (20%), NDP (14%) and others (7%), their lead over the Tories is now just 7 points (down from 13 points last month).
- In British Columbia, the Liberals (42%) have a lead over the Conservatives (23%) and NDP (22%), while others (12%) trail.
- In Alberta, the federal Conservatives (63%), on the heels of a major UCP victory in Alberta, have a commanding lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (11%) and others (3%).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (51%) also have a huge lead over the Liberals (27%), NDP (16%) and others (6%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (41%) still lead the Liberals (26%), NDP (19%) and others including the Green Party (14%), who are clearly benefiting from their strong showing in PEI.
While vote support for the Trudeau Liberals has begun to rebound, modestly, approval ratings are still depressed: 38% of Canadians approve (6% strongly/33% somewhat) of the Liberal government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, down 2 points since last month. Conversely, six in ten (62%) disapprove (34% strongly/28% somewhat) with the performance of the Trudeau Liberals, up 2 points. That approval ratings continue to decline, but Liberal vote support has increased (while Tory support decreased) suggests that there are some Canadians who may not like the Prime Minister or his party, but still prefer him and the Liberals to the alternatives.
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This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 23 and 25, 2019, on behalf Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 adults living in Canada was polled. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2001
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry. With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management. Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.