Six in Ten (61%) Canadians Have Confidence in Liberal Government’s Ability to Renegotiate NAFTA
Trudeau Liberals (36%) Have Big Edge over Scheer Tories (20%) on Dealing Effectively with U.S. President Donald Trump
Toronto, Ontario, July 28, 2017 — Six in ten (61%) Canadians say they’re confident (15% very/47% somewhat) in the Liberal government’s ability to renegotiate NAFTA in the best interests of Canadians, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Conversely, just four in ten (39%) say they’re not confident (13% not at all/26% not very) that the Liberals can pull off the high-stakes renegotiation.
Perhaps as a result of this confidence, on balance more Canadians believe that the renegotiation of NAFTA will be a good thing (37%) for Canada rather than a bad thing (22%). Two in ten (16%) say the renegotiations won’t make any difference to the current situation, while one in four (25%) are still unsure of whether the renegotiation will be beneficial or detrimental to Canada.
A recent Ipsos poll has revealed that the Trudeau Liberals have an approval rating of 60%, up 4 points since April. In fact, the Liberals enjoy an advantage over the Conservatives on traditional metrics that have historically favoured the Conservatives, including the economy and trade. The chart below demonstrates what party Canadians believe would do the best job with various areas related to the economy and trade.
The Liberals hold a significant lead over each other party on every aspect tested, including managing international trade (11-point lead over the Tories), defending Canadian interests during NAFTA negotiations (15-point lead), and dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump (16-point lead). However, it should be noted that while the Liberals lead in every category, the proportion who chose the Liberals as best on each issue is far less than a majority. Moreover, significant proportions of Canadians say that they don’t have confidence in any of Canada’s political parties to manage these files.
Looking back on over two decades of NAFTA, Canadians are decidedly in favour of its existence and its benefits to Canada. Three quarters (74%) support (30% strongly/44% moderately) Canada being a part of NAFTA with the United States and Mexico (up 4 points since 2003), while one in ten (11%) oppose (3% strongly/8% moderately) Canada being in NAFTA (down 15 points). Nearly two in ten (15%) are unsure (up 11 points).
Moreover, a majority (56%, up 5 points since 2003) of Canadians believe that to date NAFTA has ‘benefitted Canada’, while just 15% believe it has ‘hurt Canada’ (down 10 points). One in ten (9%, down 10 points) believe it has had no impact, and two in ten (20%, up 15 points) don’t know either way.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 24 and July 25, 2017, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.
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