Canadians Believe Poilievre Has Edge over Rest of Conservative Field, but are Less Certain that they Want Him to Win
All Candidates Leave a Net Negative Impression with Canadians; Liberal Voters More Favourable to Charest than Conservative Voters
Toronto, ON, April 20, 2022 – Canadians don’t have a particularly favourable impression of any of the declared or likely candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. Moreover, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, out of the 11 candidates tested, a majority of Canadians say they don’t know enough about 9 of them to have an opinion one way or the other, leaving only Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest as the candidates that most Canadians are familiar with – for better or for worse.
Canadians believe that Pierre Poilievre is most likely to win the leadership contest (20%), ahead of Jean Charest (12%). Very few believe that any other candidate will win, including Patrick Brown (4%), Leona Alleslev (2%), Scott Aitchison (1%), Roman Baber (1%), Leslyn Lewis (1%), Marc Dalton (1%), Joseph Bourgault (1%), Bobby Singh (1%), or Joel Etienne (<1%). A full majority (55%) of Canadians have no idea who will win the race.
- Among those who say they’ll vote Conservative in the next election (to be clear: not Conservative Party members), Poilievre’s (37%) perceived lead over Charest (14%) is even bigger.
Thinking about who they want to win the race, Pierre Poilievre (15%) and Jean Charest (13%) are favoured by nearly equal proportions of Canadians, while fewer want Lewis (3%), Baber (2%), Alleslev (2%), Dalton (2%), Singh (2%) Aitchison (1%), Bourgault (<1%) or Etienne (<1%) to win. Nearly six in ten (57%) don’t know who they want to win.
- Among likely Conservative voters, Pierre Poilievre (32%) jumps well ahead of Jean Charest (14%) as the preferred candidate, with all other candidates in the low single digits including Patrick Brown (4%), Leslyn Lewis (4%) and Leona Alleslev (4%). Nearly four in ten (37%) Tory voters don’t know who they want to win.
Clearly, Pierre Poilievre is the favoured among those who are already intending to vote for the Conservative Party, but these figures mean that he could have a hard time attracting additional voters into the Conservative tent, which might be a strength for Charest.
The data also reveal that, on balance, Canadians have unfavourable opinions of each of the Conservative Party leadership candidates – that is, towards those about whom they know enough to venture an opinion. Even for candidates like Poilievre and Charest who have been prominent political figures for a while, four in ten Canadians don’t have an opinion either way.
The three candidates for whom the highest proportion of Canadians hold a favourable opinion are Jean Charest (27%), Pierre Poilievre (27%) and Patrick Brown (18%). All other candidates are seen in a favourable light by just 13% of Canadians or less. However, these three candidates also elicit the highest proportion of negative feedback: Charest (34%), Poilievre (31%) and Brown (22%), followed very closely by Leslyn Lewis (21%). All other candidates garner negative opinions in the 17%-18% range.
Canadians’ Perception of Likely or Declared CPC Leadership Candidates
Candidate |
% Favourable |
% Unfavourable |
% Don’t know enough about them |
Scott Aitchison |
9% |
18% |
73% |
Roman Baber |
12% |
17% |
70% |
Patrick Brown |
18% |
22% |
60% |
Jean Charest |
27% |
34% |
38% |
Pierre Poilievre |
27% |
31% |
42% |
Leslyn Lewis |
15% |
21% |
65% |
Leona Alleslev |
12% |
17% |
71% |
Marc Dalton |
11% |
18% |
71% |
Joseph Bourgault |
11% |
17% |
72% |
Bobby Singh |
13% |
18% |
69% |
Joel Etienne |
10% |
18% |
73% |
Jean Charest enters the race with decades of political experience, including having served as Premier of Quebec for nearly a decade. Charest no doubt hopes that his experience in Quebec can help to bolster CPC fortunes within la belle province, but Quebecers are net negative on their former premier: four in ten (37%) Quebecers have a favourable perception of Charest (12% very/24% somewhat), while half (51%) are unfavourable, including 33% who are very unfavourable, while just 12% don’t know enough about him either way.
Among Conservative Party voters nationally the calculus changes. Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis become the only two candidates that garner net favourable sentiment (Poilievre net +30; Lewis net +2), while Jean Charest’s stock dips into decidedly negative territory (net -13).
Conservative Voters’ Perception of Likely or Declared CPC Leadership Candidates
Candidate |
% Favourable |
% Unfavourable |
% Don’t know enough about them |
Scott Aitchison |
10% |
14% |
73% |
Roman Baber |
12% |
17% |
70% |
Patrick Brown |
20% |
25% |
55% |
Jean Charest |
27% |
40% |
33% |
Pierre Poilievre |
50% |
20% |
30% |
Leslyn Lewis |
22% |
20% |
59% |
Leona Alleslev |
14% |
18% |
68% |
Marc Dalton |
10% |
19% |
71% |
Joseph Bourgault |
9% |
20% |
71% |
Bobby Singh |
11% |
21% |
69% |
Joel Etienne |
9% |
21% |
70% |
In fact, Jean Charest is seen more positively by Liberal voters (40% positive; 30% negative) than he is by Conservative voters (27% positive; 40% negative), suggesting that a Jean Charest leadership might attract red Tories or swing voters onto the blue team. However, it could also result in a fracturing of the party on the right, given that four in ten (40%) Conservative voters have an unfavourable view of Charest.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 14 to 19, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
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