Conservatives (35%, +3) Continue to Build Momentum and Slight National Lead Over Liberals (32%, +1) as NDP Surge Halts (21%, -2)

Tight Races in Quebec, Ontario and BC Continue

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  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, Sep 8, 2021 — Ahead of the national, televised leaders’ debates, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News shows that the Conservatives are continuing to build momentum as the Liberal and NDP campaigns have stalled.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Erin O’Toole would receive 35% of the decided national popular vote, up 3 points since last week. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party would receive 32% of the popular vote (up directionally by 1 point), which is the first time since the start of the campaign where the party has not declined week over week. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would receive 21% of the vote, a decline of 2 points – their first directional decline since the start of the campaign.

The Bloc Quebecois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, would receive 7% of the national decided vote (unchanged), which translates into 34% of the vote within Quebec. Annamie Paul and the Green Party would receive just 2% of the vote (down 2 points), while Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party would also receive 2% (up 1 point). Twelve percent (12%) of Canadians remain unsure of who they would vote for, while 4% would not vote.

A similar story persists within the regions, where tight races continue in Canada’s most seat-rich provinces:

  • In Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (35%) remain statistically tied, but they have built a larger cushion over the NDP (22%), Greens (2%) and PPC (4%).
  • Within Quebec, the Bloc (34%) and Liberals (33%) are statistically tied, while the Conservatives (21%), NDP (8%), Green (2%) and PPC (2%) are behind.
  • In British Columbia, the NDP (35%), Conservatives (30%) and Liberals (29%) are all competitive within the province, while the Green Party (4%) and PPC (3%) are well back.
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (54%) enjoy a commanding lead over the NDP (23%), Liberals (20%), Greens (2%) and PPC (<1%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (48%) are well ahead of the Liberals (27%), NDP (22%), Greens (2%) and PPC (1%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%) remain significantly ahead of the NDP (26%), Conservatives (25%), Greens (3%) and PPC (1%).

The tight race nationally is also reflected within many of the key demographic segments studied:

  • Among women, support for the Conservatives (33%), Liberals (30%), and NDP (25%) is tight, with Bloc (8%), Green (3%) and PPC (3%) further back. That the Conservatives are now competitive among women underscores the improved electoral fortunes of the Tories.
  • Among men, the race between the Conservatives (36%) and Liberals (34%) is also tight, while the NDP (18%), Bloc (7%), Greens (2%) and PPC (2%) are less competitive.
  • Among those aged 18-34, the NDP (32%), Conservatives (31%) and Liberals (27%) are all close, while the Bloc (4%), PPC (4%) and Greens (1%) are far behind. Once again, it is interesting to note that the Conservatives are competitive among this demographic which is typically less likely to support the Tories.
  • Among those aged 35-54, the Conservatives (33%) and Liberals (32%) are tied, while the NDP (20%), Bloc (8%), Greens (4%) and PPC (3%) are further back.
  • Among those aged 55+, the Tories (38%) and Liberals (36%) are tied, well ahead of the NDP (15%), Bloc (8%), Greens (2%) and PPC (1%).

Ahead of the debates, 49% of those who have declared their support for a party are absolutely certain of their choice, leaving the other half being fairly certain (37%), not very certain (12%) or not at all certain (2%) of their choice. Bloc (61%) and Conservative (53%) voters are more certain of their choice than Liberal (47%) and NDP (41%) voters, suggesting more votes will be up for grabs among progressive voters.

Moreover, examining the 68% who are completely certain to vote in this election, Bloc (72%) and Conservative (72%) voters appear more motivated to vote than Liberal (65%) and NDP (65%) voters, which could portend a ballot-box bonus for these two parties on election day.

The Prime Minister’s approval rating is unchanged at 46% (10% strongly/36% somewhat). Four in ten (38%) Canadians believe that he Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election (unchanged since last week), while six in ten (62%) believe it’s time for another federal party to take over in Ottawa (unchanged).

Heading into the debate, Singh continues to be the party leader with the highest favourability ratings, while Trudeau is the leader with the highest proportion of unfavourable ratings. Opinions of O’Toole have improved the most in the last two weeks, while Quebecers perception of Blanchet has soured slightly over the same timeframe.

Leader

% favourable

% unfavourable

Net Favour

Don’t know enough about them

Justin Trudeau

40% (-1)

56% (+3)

-16

4% (-2)

Erin O’Toole

33% (+5)

49% (--)

-16

18% (-6)

Jagmeet Singh

45% (--)

40% (+1)

+5

15% (-1)

Annamie Paul

13% (-2)

47% (+4)

-33

40% (-2)

Yves-François Blanchet (in Quebec)

33% (-6)

41% (+2)

-8

26% (+4)

Maxime Bernier

14% (--)

53% (+1)

-39

32% (-2)

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 3rd and 6th , on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1,500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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