Justin Trudeau is Slightly Favoured in the 905, but Will it Be Enough for The Liberals?

The 905 Region Remains a Battleground for Liberals and Conservatives

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Lily Eskin Account Manager
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Toronto, ON, September 16, 2021 — The vote-rich 905 region is often cited as a crucial battleground for every federal campaign, with over 30 ridings up for grabs. The region consists primarily of the Golden Horseshoe in Southern Ontario surrounding Toronto, and encompasses a large portion of middle-class residents, as well as new immigrants. The 905 typically votes as a block, and the area has largely stayed Liberal throughout the past two federal elections[i]. If Erin O’Toole wants to become the next Prime Minister, the conservatives will need to flip the region blue. 

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have Marginal Lead in the 905

If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 37% of the vote, 3 points ahead of the Conservatives and Erin O’Toole (34%). Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would receive 23% of the vote, with the Green (2%), and the People’s Party of Canada (1%) trailing. Compared to the national polling numbers, the Liberals are up by four points (33%) in the 905, whereas the Conservatives (32%) and the NDP (21%) are only up by two points.

As a leader, Justin Trudeau is seen slightly more favourably in the 905 than he is nationally. A majority (51%) of 905 residents say they approve of the Liberal government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, four points higher than the national approval rating (47%). The 905 residents also say Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (40%), ahead of Erin O’Toole (27%) and Jagmeet Singh (27%). This has been a notable theme throughout the campaign, where Justin Trudeau as a leader has been polling better than the Liberal party itself.

Notably, more 905 residents say the Liberal party has the best plan for Canada’s post COVID-19 recovery (32%). Lagging are the Conservatives (25%), and the NDP (9%). This election has been characterized as a preview of a potential post-COVID-19 Canada, so this will be crucial for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals to hold on to this sentiment and hope that it translates at the polls. 

Despite Justin Trudeau’s high approval rating in the 905, only four in ten (41%) say the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Similar to the national point of view, a majority (59%) of 905 residents say it is time for another federal party to take over. This puts Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in a tight spot. This region could sway either way, with the Liberals at risk of losing their seats in these critical ridings.  

On par with the national sentiment, a majority (55%) of 905 residents agree that we should not be having an election during a pandemic. This has been a consistent sentiment throughout the election campaign[ii], and it could pose a significant threat on Justin Trudeau’s chances at a re-election as the frustration remains and election day gets closer. With all of this back and forth, this further shows that the 905 remains a battleground region that could truly swing in either direction.

How Does the 905 Feel about Justin Trudeau?

In the 905 region, voters’ appraisals of Justin Trudeau are slightly more positive than the national sentiment in terms of personality traits.

Justin Trudeau is Someone Who /Will…

 

Gen Pop

905

Has a hidden agenda

36%

30%

Say anything to get elected

45%

38%

In over his head

36%

31%

Conversely, Erin O’Toole is experiencing the opposite in the 905, where 905 Canadians tend to have a more negative view of the Conservative leader than the national average. Compared to the general population, more 905 residents say Erin O’Toole has a hidden agenda (37% vs 29% general population), will say anything to get elected (38% vs 28% general population), and is in over his head (26% vs 18% general population).

No Issue Dominates the 905 Agenda

The top three issues the 905 cites as most important in driving their vote choice are the COVID-19 pandemic (29%), climate change (29%), and the economy (28%). With the COVID-19 pandemic cited as a top issue, this could be an opportunity for the Liberals to further emphasize their COVID-19 recovery plan, which is seen as the best among all the federal leaders in the 905.

When comparing to the regions in Ontario, the 905 region does not have one specific issue that would likely influence their vote choice. Rather, they find themselves in the middle amongst the other regions for nearly all issues. The only issue that the 905 prioritizes more than other regions is taxes (20%), with the East (19%), Southwestern (17%), and 416 (15%) right behind.

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 13 and September 6, 2021 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 6,502 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 6,002 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. From this sample, n = 620 respondents identified as 905 residents, and these respondents are the focus of this factum.

In all surveys, quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all 905 residents been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Lily Eskin
Account Manager, Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

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[i] https://globalnews.ca/news/8124081/canada-election-905-crucial-conservatives/

 

[ii] https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/One-Five-Protests-Liberal-Events-Affect-Vote

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Lily Eskin Account Manager

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