Progressive Conservatives (41%) Knocking on Door of Second Majority in Ontario

Toronto, ON, June 1, 2022 – Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives are poised to form government once again, with another majority likely in the cards. A new Ipsos poll of 2,501 eligible voters in Ontario reveals that the Progressive Conservatives under Doug Ford would receive 41% of the decided vote, up 3 points since the middle of the campaign. With victory nearly certain, the two remaining questions on election night will be: 1) will the PCs form another majority government (which is more likely than not given Liberal-NDP vote splitting), and 2) who will form the official opposition?

The race for the official opposition position is extremely tight. The NDP under Andrea Horwath (25%, +2) and the Liberals led by Steven Del Duca (24%, -4) are statistically tied, meaning that either could potentially form the official opposition, and the result will come down to turnout and whichever party is better able to motivate its voters tomorrow.  The poll also shows that the Green Party under Mike Schreiner would receive 6% of the vote (unchanged), while other parties (including the New Blue) would receive 4% (-1). One in eleven (9%) voters remains undecided, while the remainder of Ontarians say they will not vote (4%) or refused to respond to the question (1%).

Six in ten (60%) Ontarians who declared their support for a party say they’re absolutely certain of their choice, leaving four in ten who are not as certain. Supporters of the PC Party are the most certain of their choice (66%), while Liberal (60%), NDP (55%), Green (43%) and other (49%) supporters are less certain. This means there is still time for movement of votes particularly among the progressive parties. It also suggests a certain degree of apathy which could result in lower turnout among supporters of these parties. Further, PC supporters are slightly more likely to say they’re completely certain to vote (71%) than supporters of the Liberals (68%), NDP (67%), Greens (56%) and others (60%).

The key to electoral success in Ontario is to win the vote in the most populous regions of the province, namely the GTA and Southwestern Ontario. In this respect, the PCs have a strong advantage, particularly in the 905 where their twenty-point lead is substantial. But even in the City of Toronto the PCs are competitive, and they also lead in every other region of the province.

Estimated Share of the Decided Popular Vote by Region
 

Not only does the Progressive Conservative Party have the advantage in the key regions, but also among large demographic groups of voters. They have substantial leads among men and those aged 55+ which are key to their lead:

• Among those aged 55+, the Tories (48%) are well ahead of the Liberals (26%), NDP (17%), Greens (6%) and others (3%).
• Among those aged 35-54, the PCs (38%) also have the hammer over the NDP (26%), Liberals (24%), Greens (8%) and others (5%).
• Among those aged 18-34, the NDP (36%) is performing well with the PCs (33%) trailing slightly, but well ahead of the Liberals (22%), Greens (6%) or others (3%). But will this group show up to vote? Only 48% say they’re absolutely certain to cast their ballot.
• Among men, the Progressive Conservatives (49%) are dominating the vote with a substantial lead over the NDP (21%), Liberals (19%), Greens (7%) and others (4%).
• None of the parties managed to stand out among women, with a three-way statistical tie ensuing among the PCs (32%), Liberals (29%) and NDP (29%), while the Greens (6%) and others (3%) trail. Clearly though, if only women voted in this election, it would be a much tighter race.

Strong Underlying Fundamentals for the Ford Government will Propel them to Victory

Underscoring the strong figures for the Progressive Conservatives is that four in ten (43%, up 2 points since mid-campaign) believe that the Ford government has done a good job and deserves re-election, a figure which, in our experience, tracks closely to the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent receives on election day. Conversely, 54% believe it’s time for another party to take over at Queen’s Park, while 3% don’t know and 1% refused.

Moreover, a majority (55%, up 3 points since mid-campaign) approves (14% strongly/41% somewhat) of the performance of the Progressive Conservative government under the leadership of Doug Ford, while a minority (43%) disapproves (23% strongly/20% somewhat). Two percent (2%) are unsure.

Finally, the person whom Ontarians think would make the best premier will almost certainly be premier after June 2^nd. A growing proportion (45%) of Ontarians (up 5 points since mid-campaign) believe that Doug Ford would make the best premier of the province, well ahead of main rivals Andrea Horwath (29%, unchanged) and Steven Del Duca (19%, down 3 points). Nearly one in ten are either not sure (6%) or refused to respond (2%).

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 29 to 31, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 2,501 eligible voters in Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 1000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2022, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]

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