Rising Canadian COVID-19 Caseload Does Little to Diminish Liberal (36%) Lead Over Tories (31%) Nationally

Approval of Prime Minister’s COVID-19 Response Solid at 60%, But Still Lagging Behind Premiers (68%) and Mayors (73%)

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, November 29, 2020 – Despite a deteriorating COVID-19 situation in Canada, the federal Liberals maintain their national advantage over the Conservatives on account of strong approval ratings over how the Prime Minister is managing the government’s COVID-19 response. The Liberals continue to enjoy a 5-point lead over the Conservatives, with the spread narrowing by just 1 point since last month’s sounding.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, the federal Liberals would receive 36% of the decided national popular vote (down 2 points since last month), while the Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote (down 1 point). The NDP would garner 17% of the vote (unchanged), while the Bloc Québécois (8%, up 2 points) and Green Party (7%, unchanged) round out the national vote proportions. One percent (1%) would vote for some other party, while nearly one quarter of Canadians say they either don’t know (16%) who they would vote for or would choose to not to cast their ballot (7%)

The national results are stable since last month, but they mask greater fluctuations within Canada’s regions, particularly in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois has improved its fortunes.

  • In Quebec, the Bloc (36%) is statistically tied with the Liberal Party (33%), while the Conservatives (16%), NDP (11%), and Greens (4%) are well behind.
  • In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) continue to hold a solid advantage over the Conservatives (31%), which explains why they have maintained their lead nationally. The NDP (19%) and Green Party (9%) trail.
  • In British Columbia, the Liberals (34%), NDP (29%), and Conservatives (24%) are all within ten points of each other, with support for the Green Party (14%) in double digits.
  • In Alberta, the Tories (57%) maintain a handsome lead over all other parties, including the Liberals (22%), NDP (15%), and Green Party (3%).
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (52%) are supported by roughly half of voters, with the Liberals (22%), NDP (18%), and Green Party (4%) dividing the other half of the vote intentions.
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (52%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (29%), Green Party (11%), and NDP (6%).

Examining the vote intentions among subgroups of the population reveals that the driving factor of vote choice in the leading parties is not gender, but age:

  • Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals (38%) lead both the NDP (27%) and Conservatives (21%) by double digits, while the Greens (8%) and Bloc (6%) trail.
  • Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (36%) also perform well when compared to the Conservatives (27%), NDP (18%), Bloc (10%), and Greens (8%).
  • Among those aged 55+, the Conservatives (40%) hold the advantage over the Liberals (33%), NDP (10%), Bloc (8%), and Greens (7%).

Despite Climbing Case Count, Approval of Government Response Remains High

Rising COVID-19 case numbers in Canada have not had an adverse impact on government approval ratings. In fact, approval ratings remain strong, as Canadians continue to rally around their leaders during these unprecedented times.

  • Six in ten (60%) approve (16% strongly/44% somewhat) of the performance of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in response to the COVID-19 crisis, while four in ten (40%) disapprove (18% strongly/22% somewhat).
  • Seven in ten (68%) approve (20% strongly/48% somewhat) of the performance of their provincial premier, while three in ten (32%) disapprove (11% strongly/22% somewhat).
  • Nearly three quarters (73%) approve (14% strongly/59% somewhat) of the performance of their local mayor, while just one quarter (27%) disapprove (8% strongly/19% somewhat).

Person

% approve (change since last month)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

60% (+1)

Your provincial premier (national average)

68% (+3)

British Columbia

78% (+6)

Alberta

37% (-7)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

56% (+3)

Ontario

69% (-1)

Quebec

75% (+8)

Atlantic Canada

78% (+6)

Your local mayor

73% (+2)

 

It is clear that Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is the outlier and exception, with a minority of Albertans supporting his response. In the rest of the country, a solid majority of residents in each region approve of their respective premier’s response to the COVID-19 crisis.

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between November 20-23, 2020, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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