No Clear Front-Runner Emerges for Liberal Leadership
Toronto, ON - As the federal Liberals begin their search for a new leader, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television reveals that no clear front-runner has emerged from the pack of prospects.
When only examining the responses of those who say they would vote Liberal if an election were to happen tomorrow (26%), Michael Ignatieff (19%) and Frank McKenna (19%) are tied for first place, while Justin Trudeau (17%), Bob Rae (10%), Gerard Kennedy (5%), John Manley (3%), and Martha Hall-Findlay (3%) follow.
However, Canadians across the country, regardless of their political stripe, have given Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, 16% of the vote among 9 potential candidates. Not far behind are Deputy Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff (12%), former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna (12%), and former Premier of Ontario Bob Rae (9%). Receiving 5% of the vote is John Manley, former Deputy Prime Minister, followed by current MP and former Minister of Education for Ontario Gerard Kennedy (3%). MPs Ruby Dhalla, Dominic LeBlanc and Martha Hall-Findlay all received 1% support.
Interestingly, 32% of Canadians simply didn't know who should replace Mr. Dion when he steps down at next year's Liberal leadership convention, and 9% said `none of the above' should take over the reigns of the Grits.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest Global from October 22 to October 25, 2008. This online survey of 1012 adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results of this poll are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had the entire adult population in Canada been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.
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