Canadian Economic Confidence Rebounds in 2016

Toronto, ON - Canadian economic confidence has rebounded from historic lows measured in Q1 of 2016, but is still well off of pre great-recession norms, according to new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

Opinion about the economic situation in Canada this year was highly volatile. At the end of 2015, one year ago, 44% of Canadians said the economy was good. By February, 2016, it had dropped to just 34%, the lowest point measured in two decades. Currently, as of December, 2016, six in ten (61%) Canadians rate the national economy as being good (13% very/49% somewhat), while four in ten (39%) think it's bad (8% very/31% somewhat). Still, these figures are well off the mid-eighties routinely measured prior to the great recession of 2008/2009.

Putting these national figures into context, economic sentiment in Canada is on par with Australia (62%), and slightly ahead of the United States (55%). And while sentiment in Canada is significantly stronger than in France (21%), Japan (38%) or the UK (38%), it's well off the positive feelings felt in China (79%) or Germany (76%).

A closer look at the Canadian data reveals two realities: one within Alberta, and one outside of Alberta. Within Alberta, just 36% would describe the national economy as being good, significantly lower than anywhere else in Canada. In fact, a majority of residents of British Columbia (59%), Atlantic Canada (62%), Ontario (65%), Quebec (66%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (66%) describe the national economy as being in good shape.

Thinking about their local economy specifically, just 26% of Albertans say it's in good shape, although this is a 12-point improvement from the 14% who said the same at the end of 2015. So while sentiment in Alberta is improving, the figures are still very low and different from those measured in other parts of the country. Assessing their own local economies, those in the Prairies (34%), Atlantic (36%), BC (42%), Ontario (45%) and Quebec (48%) are more positive - although everybody seems to think that the national economy is doing better than their own local economy.

Looking ahead to the next six months, 27% of Canadians expect the local economy to be stronger than it is now, while 14% are more pessimistic and think the local economy will be weaker. Six in ten (59%) think things will be about the same six months from now.

Once again, optimism is not uniform across the country, but in this regard Albertans lead with 34% believing things will improve for them, followed by those living in Quebec (30%), Ontario (27%), British Columbia (25%), Atlantic Canada (18%) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (17%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted online between November 25 and December 9, 2016, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,004 Canadians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Sean Simpson
Vice President
(416) 324-2002
Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning-- Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999. www.ipsos.com