One in Ten (9%) Voters Absolutely Certain to Turn Up at Polls on Election Day Still Up for Grabs in Last Two Weeks of Campaigning
Six in ten (61%) of these motivated voters say they made up their mind before the campaign began, while others made up their mind before (19%) or after (4%) the debates, leaving 16% of this elite group which has still to firmly make up their mind. What this means is that among those eligible voters who say they are absolutely certain to go out and vote and are currently leaning towards a particularly Party, one in 10 (9%) are effectively still up for grabs--to be wooed and potentially swayed over the next two week.
And that's the real political battleground for the political parties during the back half of this current campaign.
The findings are also clear: it's Harper and his Conservatives who have the momentum from the Quebec border west to the BC coast while Jack Layton and the NDP have it all going for them from the Quebec border east out to the Atlantic coast--with the Bloc faltering in Quebec and the Michael Ignatieff Liberal campaign having a dismal momentum run pretty much everywhere. And with two thirds (65%) betting that the Harper Conservatives will win, 46% of that group think it will be a majority (ironically the very range of popular vote it would take to get a majority government) with 54% of these motivated voters believing it will be another minority government.
So Just Where And Who Are The Voters Absolutely Certain To Turn Out The Most And Least Locked In?
Saskatchewan and Manitoba motivated voters appear to be the most solid with their voting intentions at 94%, followed by those in Alberta (89%), Ontario (86%), Quebec (82%), British Columbia (81%) and Atlantic Canada (73%). Demographically, men (81%) are more locked in than women (81%) with older (55+ 87%) and middle-aged (35-54 83%) motivated voters more locked in than their younger counterparts (18-34 80%).
As far as the political stripe of those crucial votes up for grabs, it's Conservative (6%) and Bloc (9%) voters who are least available compared with soft party preference voters in the other camps: it's the NDP (20%), Green (19%) and Liberal (17%) voters who are absolutely certain they will go out and vote who are open to persuasion--as switch or strategic voters.
Momentum among Motivated Voters: Harper and the Tories are ahead from the Quebec Border West, but it's NDP Layton Country East of that to the Atlantic Coast...
In the wake of the debates, one third (32%) of these motivated voters believe that the campaign of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives is gaining the most popularity and momentum, followed very closely by three in ten (28%) who say Jack Layton and the NDP are gaining the most momentum. This is contrasted with just 15% who believe that Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals are gaining the most popularity and momentum. One in five (22%) aren't sure.
In the regions, it's Harper and the Conservatives leading in four--in British Columbia they are at 32%--17 points ahead of the NDP and 18 points ahead of the Liberals; in Alberta at 54% they're 44 points ahead of the NDP and 48 points ahead of the Liberals; in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 38% they're 29 points ahead of the NDP and 34 points ahead of the Liberals; and in Ontario at 30% it's a tighter sense of momentum with the NDP just five points behind and the Liberals trailing by 14 points.
So, while the NDP are getting a momentum bounce in the post debates among motivated voters in Ontario and coming close to the front running Tories, it's Stephen Harper and the Conservative Campaign from the Quebec border to the West coast who appear to be on a roll.
But from the Quebec border to the east coast it is a very different story: Jack Layton and his NDP campaign have got a very large bounce in their momentum among these crucial turnout voters. In Quebec, Mr. Layton and his Party at 38% are ahead of the Liberals by 30 points and the Bloc and Tories alike at 27 points to the good. And in Atlantic Canada the NDP at 32% are 16 points ahead of the PCs and seven points ahead of the Liberals.
Betting on the Outcome: Harper to Win, and Maybe--Just Maybe--the Coveted Majority...
A majority (65%) of motivated voters are pretty clear on who they believe is going to win this election: if they had to bet $1,000 of their own money on the outcome they believe Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party will win compared to just one in ten (13%) who believe Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party will win, and 5% who believe Jack Layton and the NDP will win. One in six (17%) motivated voters is still unsure who will win.
While most believe that the Conservative Party will win on Election Day, there is no national consensus among these most motivated voters on whether the Conservatives will be handed a majority or a minority government.
Among the two thirds (65%) of those motivated voters who believe Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will win the election, it's the majority (54%) who think it will be a minority government, while the minority (46%) think it will be a majority government; and that's ironic because it's just in the range of what the Conservatives would need in popular vote to get their coveted majority.
* For the last four Canadian Federal elections, an average of 62% of eligible voters have trekked to the voters booths and marked their ballots (2008 58.8%, 2006 64.6%, 2004 60.9%, and 2000 64.1%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between April 13 to 15, 2011, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global National. For this survey, a sample of 1,017 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and political composition to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
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